CNN: Russia plotting false flag event in Ukraine

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The Central Intelligence Agency of Ukraine also reported this information. In any case, I think Putin has already decided to invade and it will happen.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again: The reason Putin is going to invade Ukraine is to help the GOP. If Biden doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who refuses to help our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start WWIII.

If/when Russia invades, that will be the last reason why it will do so

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The Central Intelligence Agency of Ukraine also reported this information. In any case, I think Putin has already decided to invade and it will happen.

Do really think this is going to happen and affect the whole territory of Ukraine?

If so, the US and EU should cripple Russia with extremely tough sanctions and take as many Ukrainians as possible. Anyway, I hope you're going to be alright.

No, I don't think it will affect the whole territory of Ukraine. Ukraine will resist and it will not be a quick capture, it will be a long bloody war. I would say that Russia will not go further than the Left Bank Ukraine with some exceptions.

I would expect something like this:

Brown - already invaded
Red - will be invaded
Green - parts of the oblasts will be invaded
Blue - won't be invaded

Anyway, thank you for your support

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The Central Intelligence Agency of Ukraine also reported this information. In any case, I think Putin has already decided to invade and it will happen.

Do really think this is going to happen and affect the whole territory of Ukraine?

If so, the US and EU should cripple Russia with extremely tough sanctions and take as many Ukrainians as possible. Anyway, I hope you're going to be alright.

No, I don't think it will affect the whole territory of Ukraine. Ukraine will resist and it will not be a quick capture, it will be a long bloody war. I would say that Russia will not go further than the Left Bank Ukraine with some exceptions.

I would expect something like this:

map

Brown - already invaded
Red - will be invaded
Green - parts of the oblasts will be invaded
Blue - won't be invaded

Anyway, thank you for your support

A lot of the marked provinces are minority Russian, are you sure Putin would go for them?

Crimea and the 2 eastern "states" that have been taken are logical choices, because a good majority identify as Russian, so it's basically just "extending" Russia.

Taking a majority Ukranian province, however, is not as easy, since resistance and resentment is guaranteed.

Russia can occupy all these regions without any problems (blue regions). These regions are mostly pro-Russian

maps

The share of the population of the regions that indicated Ukrainian as their native language according to the latest census


The most common native language in cities, towns and villages according to the latest census

Why am I not surprised that BigSerg is spreading Russian propaganda again? And this man, for whom all the people who voted for Yanukovych are Russian-speaking and will welcome the Russian invasion, says that I am misinforming people. I have already said this, but I will repeat it again and again, shame on you, BigSerg

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Ukrainian intelligence reports that in Gorlivka, which is under Russian occupation, toxic substances are leaking into the air from ammonia tanks. This can be used as an excuse to expand armed aggression against Ukraine.

Chief Directorate of Intelligence: "According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, on January 14 ammonia tanks were delivered to Gorlivka occupied by Russian troops at the "Concern Stirol" enterprise, from which toxic substances were leaked into the air due to leaks.

The man-made catastrophe caused by the actions of the Russian occupiers can be used to accuse Ukraine of using toxic chemicals and as an excuse to expand armed aggression against Ukraine."

Details: Intelligence believes that the Russian occupation administration has lost control over chemicals imported into the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, and chemical pollution could lead to an environmental catastrophe in the east of Ukraine.

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Map

The share of the population of the regions that indicated Ukrainian as their native language according to the latest census

Map

The most common native language in cities, towns and villages according to the latest census

Why am I not surprised that BigSerg is spreading Russian propaganda again? And this man, for whom all the people who voted for Yanukovych are Russian-speaking and will welcome the Russian invasion, says that I am misinforming people. I have already said this, but I will repeat it again and again, shame on you, BigSerg

Re:propaganda.

Do you really believe this maps are real? No diff between Lviv Oblast and Kiev Oblast? 72% in Kiev 2001? If you are frank, you'll admit the Ukrainian language share is highly inflated. Had these numbers been from today, they'd be believable, but in 2001?

In Ukraine or in my native Belarus, it's a bit a patriotic/political statement to say that your native language is Ukrainian/Belarusian especially in the cities/among high-educated and you know it. It's the reason they were and are inflated. Once again, you know it and imo should provide this context to the Americans.

I don't know much about rural areas in Ukraine, but I'm almost 100% sure about Kiev/Odessa numbers.

Here are the maps from Belarus.

Map

I can assure you that for the ~99% in Minsk (I'm from Minsk) Russian was most common spoken language, and for ~95% it was "native" in 2009. Even in rural areas a plurality if not a majority of people either speak ~Russian or ~Trasianka (Belarusian equivalent to Surzhyk)

It's changing now (though still 99% speak Russian in Minsk), because Belarusian language starts to become a part of a new identity and as a bonus kinda middle finger to Lukashenko, who, by the way, "famously" and likely on purpose speaks kinda Trasianka.

I can't argue with you about the situation in Belarus due to the lack of sufficient knowledge about the language situation in this country. But Belarus is also not a topic of discussion.

As for the language situation in Ukraine, I can assure you that you will not find any rural region in Ukraine, even in the East, where more than 10-20% speak Russian. Moreover, of these 10-20%, the majority still considers Ukrainian their native language and is fluent in it. As for the situation in Lviv region and Kyiv region, it is no different (if we do not take into account Kyiv and Lviv and the difference in dialects). There are indeed many more Russian-speakers in Kyiv, but a) the map also says that there are fewer people who consider Ukrainian their mother tongue in Kyiv than in most parts of other regions; b) the vast majority of these people are bilingual, and if they speak Russian at home, they speak only Ukrainian at work. As for Odesa, neither I nor the census data deny that it is a Russian-speaking city. If you look closely at the map, you will see that it states that more than 80% of Odesa residents consider Russian their native language.

And at the expense of one more aspect mentioned by you, you, and not I, spread propaganda and the Russian narrative here.