Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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As a citizen of Ukraine, I must say that I hear almost nothing from the Ukrainian media and from government officials about the situation at the border. For two weeks after the first Politico report, former Defense Minister Taran, current Defense Minister Reznikov, and NSDC Secretary Danilov called it a "fake" and denied presence of any Russian troops on the border.

According to the Belingcat investigation, the head of the Office of the President Yermak drained a secret special operation to the Russian secret services, so I will not be surprised if now these traitors, who unfortunately have unlimited power, are silent and waiting for an attack to surrender Ukraine without a fight.

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https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1462679794638860289?t=pjEsBr_BeunbxFswO...

I'm glad public support is growing. In the case of an invasion, we will fight for every piece of land, we will fall killed here, but we will not again go to be lawless and oppressed nation under the rule of a marasmic from Moscow. But realistically assessing the situation, we must recognize that we have very little chance of winning without the support of our allies. In the case of an invasion, we will need a lot of support, otherwise Ukraine will perish and democracy in the world will perish behind it.

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I think this map would look far better in the BigSerg's signature than the current one, which is truly map of Russian propaganda. On map which I post now there are amost all ethnic Ukrainian lands of of the beginning of 20th century and ethnic land of Crimean Tatars - Crimea. And all of these lands were controlled by Ukrainian People's Republic

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I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

First, you don't have to apologize for anything.

Second, there are no fully pro-Russian regions. Yes, the East and the South are Russian-speaking, but even there the vast majority of the population wants to live in Ukraine. Yes, there is much less support for NATO and the EU there, but there is no desire to be part of Russia.

Third, as StateBoiler has said, it will set a dangerous precedent everywhere and will greatly strengthen separatist movements in Europe.

Fourth, even if we assume the hypothetical surrender of the South and the East, it will be a huge damage to Ukraine's economy. The South and the East are predominantly industrial areas, of which the state budget receives a significant share. The South is also a tourist area, millions of tourists go there to swim in the sea every year, including foreigners, which also brings significant income to the budget.

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In my opinion, after the recent events, including the invasion of Kazakhstan and Ryabkov's statements, Putin has already decided to invade. And, accordingly, Russia will launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. My inner feeling suggests that this may happen in late February.

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In my opinion, after the recent events, including the invasion of Kazakhstan and Ryabkov's statements, Putin has already decided to invade. And, accordingly, Russia will launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. My inner feeling suggests that this may happen in late February.

Have Ukrainian forces been on high alert and mobilized everywhere?

No. However, Zelensky has been resting for 9 days on a short vacation, which is unknown when it will end. Our head of the NSDC, Danilov, continues to declare that "Russia will not attack" or "We will easily defeat Russia." The current Ukrainian government is doing nothing to prevent the Russian invasion and/or mass death of Ukrainian military and civilians in a future potential full-scale war.

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https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1480927005508083717?t=9SAoZ6H2Mg1O_5eP2pWqFA&am...

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While I doubt Ukraine actually gets invaded, hopefully the Ukrainian Left takes the power vacumn to rise once again from the chaos push and get the Russian and NATO proxies out. I’m always having this video of Ukrainian anarchists being in the back of my mind.

Still, the fact that the Russians are making this pretty blatant and not doing this quickly is suspect that this is to try and get more concessions. Unless Andriy is lying to us, the lack of Ukrainian mobilization for a last stand or to resist is in itself either evidence that there won’t be an invasion or that, like Afghanistan, the EuroMaidan government really is that hollow.

One thing I forgot to mention is that on January 1, 2022, the Territorial Defense Forces appeared in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, among other things, will resist the aggressor in the event of an invasion. Territorial defense will have a civilian component (state and local authorities) and military-civil (headquarters of territorial defense zones, voluntary formations of territorial communities).

Also in December, an order of the Ministry of Defense came into force, which significantly expanded the list of professions women of which must register for military accounting. Society has reacted very sharply to this, because by the end of 2022, all women of certain professions between the ages of 18 and 60 must register for military accounting.

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https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1482085662954299395?s=20

And now I will wait until BigSerg comes and tells why it is good and why Russia is the best in the world

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https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1483518227049328646?t=hUPTjvCovHo-5EZhCK...

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https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1483493509642530816?t=GsCgo2dyzAoShuvJ...

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https://twitter.com/DamonMacWilson/status/1486342013180162048?t=-5tR0V2Ba5FVb6lI...

Not related, but want to post it anyway

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So the Ukrainian defense minister says there won’t be an invasion. So it really was all just posturing, like it was last time the Russians got noisy.

All this exposes is that very few people among even NATO members want war

He, like many Ukrainian officials, claims that "Russia is not ready for an invasion today," but no one denies that this could happen in a week or two.

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https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1486747496340721666?t=94_sl88igIwyHnF9Q...

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So the Ukrainian defense minister says there won’t be an invasion. So it really was all just posturing, like it was last time the Russians got noisy.

All this exposes is that very few people among even NATO members want war

He, like many Ukrainian officials, claims that "Russia is not ready for an invasion today," but no one denies that this could happen in a week or two.

I do not know the meaning of a speech, but the reports I am getting is that the inference was that an invasion in the short-term was unlikely.

Andriy, could you translate his whole speech and provide context.

"As of today, the situation in the world has not changed. The aggression continues. The war continues. There is no reason to believe that there will be an open invasion of borders from Russia, as of today.

The Russian armed forces have not created a strike group [without which an invasion is impossible] that would be able to carry out a violent invasion of Ukraine" -  Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov

He also noted that it is not guaranteed that the situation will not change in the near future and did not rule out the possibility of a full-scale invasion after some time. In general, there is a consensus among Ukrainian politicians (both among the government and the opposition) that there will be no full-scale invasion in the near future (until the end of the Olympics). There is also a consensus that Russia needs at least another week or two to draw up troops that will be needed for a full-scale invasion at the border; and at present there are not enough troops for a full-scale invasion

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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1486193580758777857?t=Y9BgoQNHtayUebyBS_mNXg&s=19

This thread is an excellent source to monitor the movement of troops in Russia and Belarus

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https://twitter.com/mschwirtz/status/1486747021683929091?s=20&t=LL1qRULtQeE2...

https://twitter.com/mschwirtz/status/1486754609075007491?s=20&t=LL1qRULtQeE2...

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Orban, as is to be expected, is aligning himself with Putin:

Strongmen strut their stuff as Orbán visits Putin in Russia

Hungary should never have been allowed into NATO or the European Union. 

As bitter as it may sound to me, Orban wants to get Transcarpathia in the event of full Russian occupation of Ukraine. But, in principle, the beginning of the Russian invasion is enough for him to start some separatist actions in the Transcarpathian region.

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I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

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What is happening now in Ukraine is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. If we talk about me, everything is calm in my region, except for the shelling of military units. I have now signed up for territorial defense and am preparing to defend my country

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What I read here makes me angry and sad at the same time. I do not know why you can not understand that the strategy of "not to provoke Russia" does not work. This strategy does not work at all, because it does not need to be provoked. If Putin decides to start a nuclear war, he will start it, regardless of whether you impose a no-fly zone, whether you provide Ukraine with fighters, or whether you provide Ukraine with tanks. In addition, no one is asking about the NFZ or NATO soldiers here. Nobody asks for it. Is it so difficult for you to provide fighter jets to Ukraine? Here's what you need. Is it so hard for you to do that? I am annoyed when some "experts" say that Ukraine does not need fighter jets, but Stinger instead. Ukraine knows better what it needs. Help Ukraine defeat Russia, because if Ukraine does not survive, you will be next. Ukraine is now fighting for the opportunity to exist as such, the opportunity to live freely on their land and a bright future for their children. But in addition, Ukraine is also fighting for values ​​and for your security. This is not just our war.

The West turned a blind eye to Russia's war crimes in Chechnya and continued to trade with it. The West turned a blind eye to the killings of oppositionists in Russia - and continued to trade with it. The West turned a blind eye to Russia's war in Georgia - and continued to trade with it. The West turned a blind eye to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbass - and continued to trade with it. Yes, the West has now imposed unprecedented sanctions, but they are not enough. They are not enough to stop Russia - and you continue to trade with it. While Minister Lindner is worried that the "welfare of the people of Germany" will be affected, civilians are being killed in Ukraine.

Do you know that I will never forget? I will not forget the voice of a 5-year-old child who said, "Mom, why am I in so much pain? I behaved well" - and died in her mother's arms. I will never forget the raped girls aged 10-15 who were raped in front of the public. You can talk about it for a long time. And now I do not want to list all the war crimes of the Russian military. I just want to convey that by buying Russian energy, Western countries are financing the genocide of Ukrainians.

You can't imagine how hurt we are when another Western politician says, "We need to keep trading with Russia," or "both sides are to blame." You can't imagine how it hurts us when we are once again denied a certain type of weapon, which we really need. We have always felt part of Europe, we have always wanted to be with Europe. But now, for many Western politicians, Russian money is more expensive than the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

And lastly, the argument "Ukraine cannot be supported [in some way], because it will provoke a nuclear war - is absolutely immoral, because you are declaring the right of nuclear-weapon states to destroy other nations, to destroy other countries. There must be a limit to everything."

And as a girl from Mariupol said: "It's scary - it's not when you're afraid of nuclear war, it's scary - it's when you don't know how to explain to your younger brother, who is swollen with hunger, why his mother will never speak again."

P.S. I wrote using Google Translator, because I did not have time to write the text in English. Therefore, there may be errors in the wording of sentences

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As several posters above have said - it’s understandable to be absolutely enraged by this - I’d be more worried if you weren’t (*cough* compucomp). I’ll confess where there are some days I want NATO planes to fly over the border and destroy as much Russian equipment in UA as possible. But in the current world order, that’s just not an adult or acceptable move. Escalation is a dangerous game, and not one the West is willing to play with Putin.

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As I told the other person here, I just want you to know that you are an immoral person. The atrocities of the Russian army in Ukraine are worse than the atrocities of the Nazis in World War II (even eyewitnesses of both wars say so). And, by the way, at least 409, not 20, civilians were killed only in Bucha. I am already silent about Mariupol, where at least 5,000 people died

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As several posters above have said - it’s understandable to be absolutely enraged by this - I’d be more worried if you weren’t (*cough* compucomp). I’ll confess where there are some days I want NATO planes to fly over the border and destroy as much Russian equipment in UA as possible. But in the current world order, that’s just not an adult or acceptable move. Escalation is a dangerous game, and not one the West is willing to play with Putin.

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As I told the other person here, I just want you to know that you are an immoral person. The atrocities of the Russian army in Ukraine are worse than the atrocities of the Nazis in World War II (even eyewitnesses of both wars say so). And, by the way, at least 409, not 20, civilians were killed only in Bucha. I am already silent about Mariupol, where at least 5,000 people died

Millions of people were killed in WW2, including in Ukraine, anyone who says what the Russians have done is worse than the Nazi's is just pure propaganda or they were part of a family that worked with the Nazi's like Bandera..  Most of  us can agree the Russians are clearly heading down a very dangerous path similar to the Holodomor but to actually say they are already worse than the Nazi's ignores the most evil regime other than maybe the Khmer Rouge in history. I truly am sorry for what you had to see, and may the people who did that burn in hell but let's not downplay what the Nazis did.


https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1510615156887371784

I don't think these people would still be alive if the Russians were worse than the Nazis

I do not belittle the crimes of the Nazis and in no way deny them. Well, I'm in detail: according to local long-lived people in the north and northeast of Ukraine (evidence is freely available on the Internet. Many in Ukraine, including me, heard them in person) Russians treat the local Ukrainian population worse than the Nazis treated local Ukrainian population during World War II.

And I would ask you not to spread the Russian narrative of "Nazi" Ukraine.

And finally, when you mention Bandera, remember not only his cooperation with Germany in the hope of gaining Ukraine's independence, but also the fact that Bandera was arrested by the Gestapo and was sent to the Sachsenhausen concentration camp.

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https://twitter.com/ukrainesinger/status/1511198612507791361?t=vKqRN1YZ7WQzskwSe...

]I just wanted you to know this story. And if the events that are unfolding in Ukraine are not genocide, then I do not know what is

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I believe that there's a legitimate debate to be had over whether it's preferable to be ruled by Putin or to see your country devolve into a European Syria, and the keyboard insurgents who want to see years of violent resistance have no right to judge the Ukrainian people for which option they choose.

First of all, I want you to know that I consider you a great poster, and then I want to explain the situation a bit, completely refuting your opinion.

So, now in Ukrainian society there is no question of living under the regime of the Kremlin marasmic or living in "European Syria". This question is not available for simple reasons, namely because one of these options is simply impossible.

Following the Kremlin's rhetoric, one can trace the change and aggravation in it. Now "denazification" is equated with de-Ukrainization, with 60% to 80% of Ukraine's population sometimes referred to as "Nazi aides" who, according to Russian propagandists and some officials, must be killed.

We can argue a lot and discuss the top reasons why Putin decided to invade Ukraine. I do not even plan to voice my opinion now, I will write about it after the Ukrainian victory. But now one thing must be objectively clear. I keep asking everyone to understand this and not try to pretend that it is not. Russia's goal now is to destroy the Ukrainian state and the Ukrainian nation, to destroy it completely. Russia's goal now is the genocide of Ukrainians, so we have no choice but to fight and fight for our survival.

If Russia stops fighting, there will be no war. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no more Ukraine