McCain and Blue Dogs (2010, 2012 election: process and results)

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Analysis South Dakota Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 30th
Primary: June 8th, June 29th (runoff)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Matt Michels - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Mike Rounds - incumbent Governor
   2) Dennis Daugaard - Lieutenant Governor

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Tom Daschle - former U.S. Senator, former Senate Majority Leader
2.Declined:
   1) Stephanie Herseth - U.S. Representative
   2) Scott Heidepriem - state Senate Minority Leader

Matt Michels's approval rating
Approve: 1) 44%; 2) 46%; 3) 44%
Dissapprove: 1) 36%; 2) 37%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 20%; 2) 17%; 3) 16%

General election polling  
Matt Michels - Tom Daschle - Undecided
        48%                    44%                 8%
        45%                    47%                 8%
        44%                    50%                 6%
        42%                    51%                 7%
        41%                    50%                 9%
        40%                    53%                 7%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean D (flip)
Sabato: Lean D (flip)
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean D (flip)
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)

Analysis Utah Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: March 19th
Primary: June 22th

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Bob Bennett - incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Mike Lee - attorney
   3) Tim Bridgewater - businessman
   4) Merrill Cook - former U.S. Representative
   5) Cherilyn Eagar - businesswoman
2.Declined:
    1) Rob Bishop - U.S. Representative
    2) Jason Chaffetz - U.S. Representative

Polling
Bennett - Lee - Bridgewater - Cook - Eagar - Undecided
    20%      35%          17%            5%       9%           14%
    19%      36%          19%            4%      10%         12%
    17%      34%          23%            6%      10%         10%

Endorsements

Bob Bennett
President John McCain (R-AZ)
Sec. Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT)
Sec. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY)
Fmr. Sen. Jake Garn (R-UT)
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)

Mike Lee
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)
Fmr. Rep. Dick Armey (R-TX)
Fmr. Rep. Jim Hansen (R-UT)
Fmr. Gov. Norm Bangerter (R-UT)
State Att. Gen. Mark Shurtleff (R-UT)
Tea Party
Republican Liberty Caucus

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Sam Granato - businessman
2.Declined:
   Jim Matheson - U.S. Representative

Bob Bennett's approval rating
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 48%; 3) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 43%; 2) 44%; 3) 45%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 8%; 3) 9%

General election polling        
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

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Analysis Vermont Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 17th
Primary: August 24th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Patrick Leahy - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Peter Welch - U.S. Representative
   2) Peter Shumlin - incumbent Governor

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Len Britton - businessman
2.Declined:
    Scott Mline - businessman

Patrick Leahy's approval rating
Approve: 1) 65%; 2) 65%; 3) 68%
Dissapprove: 1) 24%; 2) 28%; 3) 28%
Don't know: 1) 11%; 2) 7%; 3) 4%

General election polling        
No polling

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Washington Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: June 11th
Primary: August 17th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Patty Murray - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Jay Inslee - U.S. Representative
   2) Adam Smith - U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Dino Rossi - former state senator
    2) Clint Didier - former NFL player
    3) Paul Akers - salesman
2.Declined:
   1) Dave Reichert - U.S. Representative
   2) Cathy McMorris Rogers - U.S. Representative

Patty Murray's approval rating
Approve: 1) 55%; 2) 56%; 3) 53%
Dissapprove: 1) 38%; 2) 39%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 5%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Patty Murray - Dino Rossi - Undecided
       58%                  37%               5%
       55%                  39%               6%

Rating:

Cook: Likely D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Likely D
Daily Kos: Safe D

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Analysis West Virginia special Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: January 30th
Primary: May 11th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Joe Manchin - incumbent Governor
   2) Ken Hechler - former U.S. Representative and former WV SoS
2.Declined:
   1) Nick Rahall - U.S. Representative
   2) Carte Goodwin - incumbent U.S. Senator

Polling
Joe Manchin - Ken Hechler - Undecided
         70%                  23%                7%

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    John Raese - businessman
2.Declined:
   1) Shelley Moore Capito - U.S. Representative
   2) Don Blankenship - CEO of Massey Energy

Carte Goodwin's approval rating
Approve: 1) 40%; 2) 42%; 3) 43%
Dissapprove: 1) 28%; 2) 30%; 3) 29%
Don't know: 1) 32%; 2) 28%; 3) 27%

General election polling    
Joe Manchin - John Raese - Undecided
         60%                  36%               4%
         57%                  37%               6%
         61%                  34%               5%

Rating:

Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Likely D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Likely D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Analysis Wisconsin Senate race 2010

15th January 2010
Candidates filing deadline: July 13th
Primary: September 14th

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Russ Feingold - incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Tammy Baldwin - U.S. Representative
   2) Ron Kind - U.S. Representative
  
Republican Party
1.Declared:
    1) Ron Johnson - businessman
    2) Dave Westlake - businessman
    3) Dick Leinenkugel - former state Commerce Secretary
2. Potential:
    Tommy Thompson - former Governor, former U.S. Secretary of HHS
3.Declined:
   1) Paul Ryan - U.S. Representative
   2) Tom Petri - U.S. Representative

Russ Feingold's approval rating
Approve: 1) 49%; 2) 47%; 3) 47%
Dissapprove: 1) 45%; 2) 46%; 3) 46%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
Russ Feingold - Ron Johnson - Undecided
         49%                    43%                  8%
         50%                    43%                  7%
         51%                    44%                  5%
         49%                    45%                  6%
         48%                    46%                  6%

Russ Feingold - Tommy Thompson - Undecided
         46%                         47%                       7%
         45%                         50%                       5%
         47%                         47%                       6%

Rating:

Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

Sorry for such a long and boring part of TL (all of this analysis), I will change the format for 2012 Senate election.

Now this TL will be little more interesting, I'm going to post primary results in states and intentions of potential presidential candidates.

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18th January 2010
Breaking news: Josh Shapiro declined to run for U.S. Senator of PA

State representative Josh Shapiro, a rising star in the Democratic Party, declined to run for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, will run instead for Pennsylvania Attorney General in 2012

19th January 2010
Breaking news: Charlie Dent declined to run in PA Senate race

U.S. Representative Charlie Dent, who publicly announced the opportunity to run and his willingness to be a compromise candidate in the primary between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey, today declined to run and endorsed Specter, calling Toomey "an extremist, who doesn't deserve to be elected Pennsylvania Senator"

January 20th, 2010
Hillary Clinton and 2012
Close allies of former President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton have told reporters that the former First Lady is preparing to run in 2012. It is expected that in April this year, she will announce her campaign in Chicago, Illinois

21st January 2010
Breaking news: Ernie Fletcher declined to run for KY Senate seat

Former Governor Ernie Fletcher, who was defeated in landslide in 2007, declined to run for US Senator and decided to retire from politics

24th January 2010
Breaking news: U.S. Senator Jim Bunning decided to run again

U.S. Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) will run for his seat again. For about two years, Republican leaders in the Senate persuaded him to retire. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) personally assured McCain in December 2009 that Bunning ill retire, but today Bunning unexpectedly announced that he will run again. He will face doctor Rand Paul and Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson in Republican

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26th January 2010
Breaking news: Governor Rendell declined to run for U.S. Senate

Popular incumbent Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania Ed Rendell will run for reelection. Decided not to jump into PA Senate race

31st January 2010
Breaking news: David Hoffman drops out Illinois Senate race

David Hoffman drops out Illinois Senate race, makes no endorsement

1st February 2010
Breaking news: Greg Brannon will run against Richard Burr in NC Republican primary

Tea Party activist Greg Brannon launched campaign to unseat incumbent Senator Richard Burr. He is endorsed by U.S. Senator Jim DeMint and North Carolina Tea Party. Another McCain's ally will fight against Tea Party in primary

2nd February 2010
Breaking news: Kathy Dahlkemper enters PA Senate race

U.S. Representative Kathy Dahlkemper, moderate Democrat jumps into PA Senate race. She was heavily backed by U.S. Senator and 2008 VP nominee Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA). She will face another U.S. Representative Joe Sestak in Democratic primary

February 2nd, 2010
Breaking news: Barack Obama said he will not run for President in 2012 and/or 2016

Retiring U.S. Senator, 2008 Democratic presidential nominee and 2010 Democratic candidate for Governor of Illinois Barack Obama said he isn't interested in another presidential running, preferred focus on gubernatorial job

February 11th, 2010
Erie, Pennsylvania

U.S. Senator Bob Casey publicly announced his support for the U.S. Representative Kathy Dahlkemper at her campaign event. She is running for U.S. Senate

Also, the rally was attended by U.S. Senators Evan Bayh, Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson and U.S. Representatives Nick Rahall and Jim Oberstar. They all are founders of "Blue Dogs for an American Future"

After the rally, Bob Casey Jr. talked to Evan Bayh for a very long time. It was about a potential campaign in 2012. Both are seen as favorites from their coalition. Representative Nick Rahall was present during their conversation and is believed to have persuaded one of them not to run. After the meeting, both were quite dissatisfied, despite the friendly relations between them, they did not agree on who will run.

Senator Casey then flew with Kent Conrad to Chicago, Illinois, where Senator Obama, a 2008 Democratic presidential nominee, was at the time to enlist his support and talk to BDAF co-founder Dan Lipinski to become a national co-chair of Casey's campaign in future.

So Casey decided to seek support outside the BDAF, which was criticized by one of the House's most influential members, the Armed Services Committee Chair Ike Skelton. Evan Bayh tried to get as much internal support as possible. The endorsement that would be made by Obama would automatically give the candidate leadership with African American voters.

[😥]

2nd February 2010
Illinois primary results

Senate

Democratic primary

10% Reporting
Rahm Emanuel 35.29%
Tammy Duckworth 27.65%
Cheryle Jackson 15.06%
Alexi Giannoulias 14.58%
David Hoffman (withdrew) 4.21%
Robert Marshall 3.21%

50% Reporting
Rahm Emanuel 32.29%
Tammy Duckworth 28.67%
Alexi Giannoulias 18.16%
Cheryle Jackson 13.32%
David Hoffman (withdrew) 4.93%
Robert Marshall 2.63%

99.9% Reporting
Tammy Duckworth 32.28%
Rahm Emanuel 31.24%
Alexi Giannoulias 17.21%
Cheryle Jackson 11.42%
David Hoffman (withdrew) 5.07%
Robert Marshall 2.78%

Republican primary
Mark Kirk 72.57%
Patrick Hudges 27.43%

Polling (last two months)
Tammy Duckworth - Mark Kirk - Undecided
              51%                      43%             6%
              50%                      42%             8%
              52%                      43%             5%
              51%                      40%             9%
              50%                      44%             6%
              49%                      42%             9%
              48%                      45%             7% (Kirk internal)
              50%                      43%             7%
              54%                      39%             7% (Duckworth internal)
              49%                      45%             6%

Rating:

Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Safe D (previous: Likely D)
Sabato: Likely D (previous: Safe D)
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Likely D (previous: Lean D)
RCP: Likely D (previous: Lean D)
Fox News: Likely D
Daily Kos: Safe D

House

IL-01
Democratic primary: Bobby Rush* 79.70%
Republican primary: Ray Wardingley unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-02
Democratic primary: Jesse Jackson Jr.* unopposed
Republican primary: Isaac Hayes unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-03
Democratic primary: Dan Lipinski* 78.89%
Republican primary: Michael Bendas unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-04
Democratic primary: Luis Gutierrez* unopposed
Republican primary: Israel Vasquez unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-05
Democratic primary: Mike Quigley 22.45%
Republican primary: David Ratowitz 39.64%

Incumbent Rahm Emanuel (D) retired to run for US Senator

Rating: Safe D

IL-06
Republican primary: Peter Roskam* unopposed
Democratic primary: Sean Casten 62.89%
Rating: Lean R

IL-07
Democratic primary: Danny Davis* 66.77%
Republican primary: Mark Weiman unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-08
Democratic primary: Melissa Bean* unopposed
Republican primary: Joe Walsh 34.16%
Rating: Lean D

IL-09
Democratic primary: Jan Schakowsky* unopposed
Republican primary: Joel Pollak unopposed
Rating: Safe D

IL-10
Republican primary: Bob Dold 38.03%
Democratic primary: Brad Schneider 34.67%

Incumbent Mark Kirk (R) retired to run for US Senator

Rating: Lean D (pick-up)

IL-11
Democratic primary: Debbie Halvorson* unopposed
Republican primary: Adam Kinzinger 63.67%
Rating: Tossup

IL-12
Democratic primary: Jerry Costello* unopposed
Republican primary: Theresa Kormos 51.76%
Rating: Likely D

IL-13
Republican primary: Judy Biggert* unopposed
Democratic primary: Tom Cullerton 57.59%
Rating: Lean R

IL-14
Democratic primary: Bill Foster* unopposed
Republican primary: Randy Hultgren 54.71%
Rating: Lean D

IL-15
Republican primary: Tim Johnson* unopposed
Democratic primary: David Gill unopposed
Rating: Lean R

IL-16
Republican primary: Don Manzullo* unopposed
Democratic primary: George Gaulrapp
Rating: Safe R

IL-17
Democratic primary: Phil Hare* unopposed
Republican primary: Bobby Schilling unopposed
Rating: Lean D

IL-18
Republican primary: Aaron Schock* unopposed
Democratic primary: Carl Ray unopposed
Rating: Safe R

IL-19
Republican primary: John Shimkus* 85.34%
Democratic primary: Tim Bagwell unopposed
Rating: Safe R

Battleground districts
Held by Republicans: IL-06, IL-10, IL-13, IL-15
Held by Democrats: IL-08, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17
Possible battlegrounds: IL-12

Governor

Democratic primary
Barack Obama 78.52%
Pat Quinn* 21.48%

Republican primary
Bill Brady 24.16%
Jim Ryan 23.39%
Andy McKenna 21.89%
Adam Andrzejewski 17.63%
Dan Profit 7.39%
Robert Schillerstrom 5.54%

Polling (last two months)
Barack Obama - Bill Brady - Undecided
          61%                 35%              4%
          60%                 33%              7%
          62%                 33%              5%
          57%                 35%              8% (Brady internal)
          64%                 31%              5%
          66%                 29%              5%

Rating:

Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

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15th February 2010
Breaking news: Mitch Daniels declined to run for U.S. Senate

Popular Governor of Indiana, only candidate, who would be competitive against Evan Bayh in general election, declined to run. "I want to serve the people of Indiana, not sit in Washington," Daniels said. He was repeatedly mentioned as a potential presidential candidate in 2012

18th February 2010
Breaking news: Gresham Barrett declined to run for U.S. Senate

U.S. Representative Gresham Barrett (R-SC), one of the most conservative members of U.S. House of Representatives, declines to run for both Senate seats in South Carolina, endorses Jim DeMint and Joe Wilson, respectively

20th February 2010
Breaking news: Bud Cramer declined to run for U.S. Senate or/and Governor

Former Congressman Bud Cramer (D-AL), who has been mentioned many times as a potential rival to Senator Shelby, has refused to run for the Senate or Governors. He announced that he was completely ending his public career

21st February 2010
Breaking news: Buddy Dyer decided not to run for Senate

Buddy Dyer will not run for U.S. Senate in Florida, said he would prepare to run for governor

24th February 2010
Breaking news: Tom Vilsack enters Senate race in Iowa

Former Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack, who served from 1999 to 2007, declared his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Iowa. He is the strongest potential Democrat rival in Iowa. Most polls show his leadership over Grassley by double digits

25th February 2010
Breaking news: Dave Loebsack declined to run for US Senate

Shortly after Tom Vilsack's decision to run, U.S. Representative Dave Loebsack decided to run for reelection, declined to run for U.S. Senate, leaving Vilsack as only Democratic candidate

26th February 2010
Breaking news: David Beasley enters Senate race in SC

Former Governor David Beasley, who served from 1995 to 1999, decided to run for U.S. Senate special election in South Carolina. He run for Senate in 2004, and now running for other Senate seat. He had long wanted to run against Jim DeMint, but the presence in the race McCain-backed Charlie Condon, who was endorsed by the entire Republican establishment, forced him to give up this. Later he announced his candidacy against Bob Inglis and Joe Wilson

[😥]

28th February 2010
Breaking news: Chuck Grassley will not for reelection

Longtime U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) declined to run for reelection, said he was thinking of running for governor. Most experts agree that this decision was prompted by the popular former Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack running against him. Instead, Governor's race is more winnable for Grassley

1st March 2010
Breaking news: John Hoeven declined to run for U.S. Senate

Governor John Hoeven (R-ND) declined to run for U.S. Senate. The popular Republican governor is the only candidate who could defeat incumbent Democrat Byron Dorgan. He had the lead over Dorgan in almost all previous polls

2nd March 2010
Breaking news: Duane Sand, Rick Berg will run for Senate in ND

State legislators Duane Sand and Rick Berg enter North Dakota Senate race after John Hoeven declined to run. After Hoeven's decision, most experts agreed that the place was safe for Democrats

3rd March 2020
Breaking news: Allyson Schwartz declined to run for U.S. Senate

U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania Allyson Schwartz decided not to run for Senate, instead will run for reelection

7th March 2010
Breaking news: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) will run for reelection

Breaking news: Heidi and Joel Heitkamps, Kristin Hedger declined to run

Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) decided to run for reelection. "I promise it will be my last term." It was expected that if Governor John Hoeven ran, Dorgan would retire. Following Hoeven's decision, Dorgan consulted with Senate Democratic Caucus and North Dakota Democratic Party leaders and decided to run again.

Heidi and Joel Heitkamps and Kristin Hedger, who were often mentioned as potential candidates, refused to run

5th March 2010
Breaking news: Tom Latham will not run for U.S. Senate

U.S. Representative Tom Latham (R-IA), who was considered the strongest Republican candidate after Chuck Grassley, decided not to run for the U.S. Senate, will run for reelection instead

8th March 2010
Breaking news: Steve King enters Iowa Senate race

U.S. Representative Steve King, known for his odious racist and Nazi statements, has announced that he will run for the U.S. Senate in Iowa. Nomination of him means an automatic loss of Senate seat for Republicans, many experts agree

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March 2nd, 2010
Texas primary

House

TX-01
Republican primary: Louie Gohmert* unopposed
Democratic primary: Shirley McKellar unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-02
Republican primary: Ted Poe* unopposed
Democratic primary: none
Rating: Safe R

TX-03
Republican primary: Sam Johnson* unopposed
Democratic primary: John Lingemfelder unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-04
Republican primary: Ralph Hall* 64.34%
Democratic primary: VaLinda Hathcox unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-05
Republican primary: Jeb Hensarling* unopposed
Democratic primary: Tom Berry unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-06
Republican primary: Joe Barton* unopposed
Democratic primary: David Cozad unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-07
Republican primary: John Culberson* unopposed
Democratic primary: Michael Skelly unopposed
Rating: Lean R

TX-08
Republican primary: Kevin Brady* unopposed
Democratic primary: Kent Hargett unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-09
Democratic primary: Al Green* unopposed
Republican primary: Steve Mueller unopposed
Rating: Safe D

TX-10
Republican primary: Michael McMaul* unopposed
Democratic primary: Larry Joe Dohetry unopposed
Rating: Lean R

TX-11
Republican primary: Mike Conaway* unopposed
Democratic primary: James Quillian unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-12
Republican primary: Kay Granger* 82.13%
Democratic primary: Tracey Smith unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-13
Republican primary: Mac Thornberry* unopposed
Democratic primary: none
Rating: Safe R

TX-14
Republican primary: Randy Weber 50.32%
Democratic primary: Robert Pruett 50.54%

Incumbent Ron Paul (R) lost primary

Rating: Safe R

TX-15
Democratic primary: Ruben Hinojosa* unopposed
Republican primary: Eddie Zamora 50.67%
Rating: Safe D

TX-16
Democratic primary: Silvestre Reyes* unopposed
Republican primary: Tim Besco unopposed
Rating: Safe D

TX-17
Democratic primary: Bill Matta 53.47%
Republican primary: Bill Flores 50.03%

Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) retired

Rating: Likely R (flip)

TX-18
Democratic primary: Sheila Jackson Lee* unopposed
Republican primary: John Faulk unopposed
Rating: Safe D

TX-19
Republican primary: Randy Neugebauer* unopposed
Democratic primary: Andy Wilson unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-20
Democratic primary: Charlie Gonzalez* unopposed
Republican primary: Clayton Trotter unopposed
Rating: Safe D

TX-21
Republican primary: Chip Roy 56.76%
Democratic primary: Candace Duval 51.66%

Incumbent Lamar Smith (R) retired

Rating: Lean R

TX-22
Republican primary: Pete Olson* unopposed
Democratic primary: Mark Gibson 55.76%
Rating: Safe R

TX-23
Democratic primary: Ciro Rodriguez* unopposed
Republican primary: Quico Canseco unopposed
Rating: Lean D

TX-24
Republican primary: Kenny Marchant* unopposed
Democratic primary: Jane McDowell 58.97%
Rating: Likely R

TX-25
Democratic primary: Lloyd Doggett* unopposed
Republican primary: Donna Campbell unopposed
Rating: Safe D

TX-26
Republican primary: Michael Burgess* unopposed
Democratic primary: Neil Durrance unopposed
Rating: Safe R

TX-27
Democratic primary: Solomon Ortiz* unopposed
Republican primary: Blake Farenthold unopposed
Rating: Likely D

TX-28
Democratic primary: Henry Cuellar* unopposed
Republican primary: Bryan Underwood unopposed
Rating: Safe D

TX-29
Democratic primary: Gene Green* unopposed
Republican primary: Roy Morales unopposed
Rating: Safe D

TX-30
Democratic primary: Eddie Bernice Johnson* unopposed
Republican primary: Stephen Broden 50.01%
Rating: Safe D

TX-31
Republican primary: John Carter* unopposed
Democratic primary: none
Rating: Safe R

TX-32
Republican primary: Pete Sessions* unopposed
Democratic primary: Katherine McGovern unopposed
Rating: Likely R

Battleground districts
Held by Republicans: TX-07, TX-10, TX-21
Held by Democrat: TX-23
Possible battlegrounds: TX-17, TX-24, TX-27, TX-32

Governor

Republican primary

10% Reporting
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 51.39%
Rick Perry* 42.22%
Debra Medina 6.39%

50% Reporting
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 46.69%
Rick Perry* 43.44%
Debra Medina 9.87%

99.9% Reporting
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 45.86%
Rick Perry* 45.59%
Debra Medina 8.55%

Notable endorsements

Rick Perry
Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)

Kay Bailey Hutchinson
Fmr. President George W. Bush (R-TX)
Fmr. President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)
Fmr. VP Dick Cheney (R-WY)
Sec. Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT)
Sec. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
9 U.S. Representatives from Texas

Run-off polling (last month)
Rick Perry - Kay Hutchison - Undecided
       43%                  49%                   8%
       46%                  46%                   8%
       48%                  42%                  10%
       44%                  47%                   9%
       42%                  52%                   6%

Democratic primary

Bill White 76.01%
Others 23.99%

Polling (last two months)
Rick Perry - Bill White - Undecided
      48%             45%              7%
      46%             47%              7%
      50%             45%              5%
      52%             42%              6%
      51%             41%              8%
      47%             44%              9%
      48%             42%             10%
      46%             46%              8%
      48%             47%              5%
      49%             45%              6%

Kay Hutchinson - Bill White - Undecided
           49%                  43%              8%
           48%                  47%              5%
           51%                  44%              5%
           50%                  43%              7%
           49%                  42%              9%
           46%                  47%              7%
           49%                  40%             11%
           50%                  43%              7%
           45%                  49%              6%
           46%                  46%              8%

Rating:
Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Lean R
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Likely R
Daily Kos: Likely R

[😥]

March 11th, 2010
Breaking news: Pam Iorio declined to run for Senate or Governor

March 15th, 2010
Breaking news: Ann Kirkpatrick declined to run for U.S. Senate or Governor in Arizona

Congressman Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), who has been mentioned many times as a potential rival to Senator Woods, has refused to run for the Senate or Governor. She announced that she would run for re-election to the House of Representatives. Kirkpatrick also endorsed the only Democrat in the Senate race, Gabrielle Giffords

March 17th, 2010
Breaking news: Jim Nussle enters Iowa Senate race

Former U.S. Representative from Iowa, former House Budget Committee Chairman, former OMB Director under George W. Bush and 2006 Iowa gubernatorial nominee Jim Nussle decided to run for U.S. Senate in Iowa. He will face U.S. Representative Steve King in primary. His candidacy was highly backed by President John McCain, who was very unhappy with Steve King as GOP nominee

March 19th, 2010
Breaking news: Kathy Castor enters Senate race in Florida

U.S. Representative from Florida Kathy Castor declared her candidacy for US Senate. She will face U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek and businessman Jeff Greene in Democratic primary

April 1st, 2010
Breaking news: Jane Norton enters Senate race in Colorado

Former Lieutenant Governor of Colorado Jane Norton (R-CO) is now running for US Senate. She will face Ken Buck in Republican primary

April 5th, 2010
Breaking news: Kris Kobach enters Kansas Senate race

Chair of Kansas Republican Party Kris Kobach declared his candidacy to run for U.S. Senate in Kansas. He will face U.S. Representatives Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt and former Attorney General of Kansas Bob Londerholm in Republican primary

April 7th, 2010
Breaking news: Chris Murphy will run for U.S. Senate

Congressman Chris Murphy (D-CT) declared his candidacy for US Senate special election in Connecticut. He will face businessman and 2006 Democratic nominee Ned Lamont in Democratic primary. Winner of primary will face Senator Michael Fedele, who was appointed to this seat in 2009, in general election. Winner of Democratic primary very likely will be next Senator from Connecticut

April 8th, 2010
Breaking news: Ned Lamont drops out of the Senate race

Businessman, 2006 Democratic nominee Ned Lamont ended his bid for Senate, endorsed Chris Murphy, who is now running unopposed in primary. Lamont said that he will run for Governor

[😥]

April 13th, 2010
Texas run-off

Governor

Republican primary
Rick Perry 50.65%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 49.35%

Polling (last month)
Rick Perry - Bill White - Undecided
      49%            40%               11%
      50%            43%                7%
      45%            49%                6%
      46%            46%                8%
      45%            48%                8%

Rating:
Cook: Tossup (previous: Lean R)
I.E.: Tossup (previous: Lean R)
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup (previous: Lean R)
CNN: Tossup (previous: Lean R)
RCP: Tossup (previous: Lean R)
Fox News: Lean R (previous: Likely R)
Daily Kos: Tossup (previous: Likely R)

April 16th, 2010
Breaking news: Shirley Frankin enters Senate race in Georgia; Sanford Bishop, Jim Marshall decline to run

Longtime Mayor of Atlanta, who has twice been mentioned as the best mayor of the United States and is very, very popular in Georgia will run for the US Senate against incumbent Johnny Isakson. She has twice met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and once with 2008 presidential nominee Barack Obama. Following her decision, U.S. Representatives Sanford Bishop and Jim Marshall, who widely considered running if Frankin refused, announced a decision to run for re-election, thus clearing the way for Franklin

April 21st, 2010
Rally in Chicago, Illinois

Hillary Rodham Clinton next to her husband Bill Clinton and Senator from Illinois Dick Durbin

Dick Durbin: "Today we are here to hear Hillary's words, to hear her future vision of America. I want to pay my respects to you, Mrs. Clinton. You are an extraordinary person. I have been working with her in the Senate for over nine years. And believe me , very few senators are trying so hard to make the lives of ordinary Americans better. And now I want to give the floor to former President Bill Clinton. "

Bill Clinton: "My wife and I have been through a lot. I love her very much, and she loves this country. She will make the lives of ordinary Americans much better. If it weren't for her, I would never have become governor. If it weren't for her, I wouldn't have become President. If it weren't for her, I wouldn't have succeeded. Thank you, Hillary! "

Hillary Clinton: "I'm very happy to be here today! Thank you for coming to support me, the Illonians. It's time for change, it's time for big changes. Changes that will allow everyone, regardless of skin color, to be equal. Changes that will allow everyone to have affordable health care.Changes that will allow everyone to have a decent education.Changes that will allow America to become a country of equal opportunities again.That is why I am now announcing the start of my campaign for Pre ... [Sounds a shot].

Hillary Clinton falls without saying a word
Bill Clinton rushes to his wife

Crowd: "Hillary killed! Hillary killed?"

Dick Durbin: "A terrible tragedy has just happened. But I'm telling you the good news, Hillary is alive. The doctors will do their best. The culprits will be found and punished, I promise you, Senate Majority Whip. President McCain is already flying to Chicago."

John McCain after arriving in Chicago: "No one, you hear no one can be unpunished for such a crime. Hillary was, is and will be my friend. I have already instructed the relevant services to investigate and find the perpetrators."

April 23th, 2010
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant has claimed responsibility for the assassination attempt on Hillary Clinton

April 24th, 2010
President McCain asks Senate to authorize 250,000 troops in Iraq and Syria for "total and irreversible destruction of ISIL."

April 29th, 2010
Breaking news: Mario Diaz-Balart will not run for Senate

U.S. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) will run for reelection, declines to run for U.S. Senate. Diaz-Balart has often been cited as a potential compromise candidate for the Senate to avoid competitive primary between moderate Governor Charlie Crist and Tea Party Speaker of Florida HoR Marco Rubio. He met Mitch McConnell twice, but today, one day before the deadline, refused to run.
 

[😥]

May 4th, 2010 (Part I of May 4th primaries)

North Carolina primary

Senate

Republican primary

10% Reporting
Greg Brannon 52.38%
Richard Burr* 47.62%

50% Reporting
Greg Brannon 50.12%
Richard Burr* 49.88%

Democratic primary

10% Reporting
Elaine Marshall 38.43%
Cal Cunningham 30.96%
Mike McIntyre 30.61%

50% Reporting
Elaine Marshall 34.58%
Mike McIntyre 34.17%
Cal Cunningham 31.25%

House

NC-01
Democratic primary: G.K. Butterfield* 72.93%
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Safe D

NC-02
Democratic primary: Bob Etheridge* unopposed
Republican primary: Renee Ellmers 50.65%
Rating: Likely D

NC-03
Republican primary: Walter Jones Jr.* 78.28%
Democratic primary: Johnny Rouse unopposed
Rating: Safe R

NC-04
Democratic primary: David Price* unopposed
Republican primary: Too Close to Call
Rating: Safe D

NC-05
Republican primary: Virginia Foxx* 76.34%
Democratic primary: Billy Kennedy unopposed
Rating: Safe R

NC-06
Republican primary: Howard Coble* 66.17%
Democratic primary: Sam Turner unopposed
Rating: Safe R

NC-07
Democratic primary: Too Close To Call
Republican primary: Too Close To Call

Incumbent Mike McIntyre (D) retired to run for US Senator

Rating: Tossup

NC-08
Democratic primary: Larry Kissell* 65.31%
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Likely D

NC-09
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Democratic primary: Jennifer Roberts unopposed

Incumbent Sue Myrick (R) retired

Rating: Tossup

NC-10
Republican primary: Patrick McHenry* unopposed
Democratic primary: Patsy Keever 54.38%
Rating: Safe R

NC-11
Democratic primary: Health Shuler* 61.37%
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Likely D

NC-12
Democratic primary: Mel Watt* unopposed
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Safe D

NC-13
Democratic primary: Brad Miller* unopposed
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Safe D

Ohio primary

Senate

Republican primary
Rob Portman 100%

Democratic primary

10% Reporting
Lee Fisher 59.07%
Jennifer Brunnen 40.93%

50% Reporting
Lee Fisher 52.08%
Jennifer Brunnen 47.92%


House

OH-01
Democratic primary: Steve Dreihaus* 80.19%
Republican primary: Steve Chabot unopposed
Rating: Lean D

OH-02
Republican primary: Jean Schmidt* 63.05%
Democratic primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Lean R

OH-03
Republican primary: Mike Turner* 85.81%
Democratic primary: Joe Roberts 76.05%
Rating: Safe R

OH-04
Republican primary: Jim Jordan* unopposed
Democratic primary: Jim Slone 68.67%
Rating: Safe R

OH-05
Republican primary: Bob Latta* 85.77%
Democratic primary: Caleb Finkenbiner unopposed
Rating: Safe R

OH-06
Democratic primary: Charlie Wilson* 69.34%
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Lean D

OH-07
Republican primary: Steve Austria* 82.64%
Democratic primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Safe R

OH-08
Republican primary: John Boehner* 85.79%
Democratic primary: Justin Cousooule unopposed
Rating: Safe R

OH-09
Democratic primary: Marcy Kaptur* 84.88%
Republican primary: Rich Iott 67.92%
Rating: Safe D

OH-10
Democratic primary: Dennis Kucinich* unopposed
Republican primary: Peter Corrigan 74.61%
Rating: Safe D

OH-11
Democratic primary: Marcia Fudge* 84.92%
Republican primary: Tom Pekarek unopposed
Rating: Safe D

OH-12
Republican primary: Pat Tiberi* 84.63%
Democratic primary: Paula Brooks unopposed
Rating: Tossup

OH-13
Democratic primary: Betty Sutton* 79.31%
Republican primary: Tom Ganley 72.28%
Rating: Safe D

OH-14
Republican primary: Steve LaTourette* unopposed
Democratic primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Likely R

OH-15
Republican primary: Steve Stivers* unopposed
Democratic primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Lean D (pick-up)

OH-16
Democratic primary: John Boccieri* unopposed
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Tossup

OH-17
Democratic primary: Tim Ryan* 80.88%
Republican primary: Jim Graham 70.55%
Rating: Safe D

OH-18
Democratic primary: Zack Space* unopposed
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Lean D


Governor

Democratic primary
Ted Strickland 100%

Republican primary
Mary Taylor 100%

Polling (last two months)
Ted Strickland - Mary Taylor - Undecided
           50%                  41%               9%
           48%                  45%               7%
           50%                  45%               5%
           51%                  40%               9%
           52%                  42%               6%
           50%                  43%               7%

Rating:
Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Lean D
Sabato: Lean D
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D

Indiana primary

Senate

Democratic primary
Evan Bayh 100%

Republican primary

10% Reporting
John Hostettler 45.76%
Marlin Stutzman 43.86%

50% Reporting
Marlin Stutzman 44.59%
John Hostettler 42.39%


House

IN-01
Democratic primary: Pete Visclosky* unopposed
Republican primary: Mark Leyva 65.31%
Rating: Safe D

IN-02
Democratic primary: Joe Donnelly* unopposed
Republican primary: Jackie Walorski 59.03%
Rating: Safe D

IN-03
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Democratic primary: Too Close To Call

Incumbent Mark Souder (R) resigned

Rating: Likely R

IN-04
Republican primary: Todd Rokita* unopposed
Democratic primary: David Sanders unopposed
Rating: Safe R

IN-05
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Democratic primary: Tim Crawford 69.49%
Rating: Safe R

IN-06
Republican primary: Mike Pence* unopposed
Democratic primary: Barry Welsh unopposed
Rating: Safe R

IN-07
Democratic primary: Andre Carson* unopposed
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Safe D

IN-08
Democratic primary: Brad Ellsworth* unopposed
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Lean D

IN-09
Democratic primary: Baron Hill* 71.12%
Republican primary: Too Close To Call
Rating: Lean D

[😥]

May 4th, 2010 (Part II of May 4th primaries)

North Carolina primary

Senate

Republican primary

100% Reporting
Richard Burr* 52.86%
Greg Brannon 47.14%

Democratic primary

100% Reporting
Mike McIntyre 37.39%
Elaine Marshall 32.65%
Cal Cunningham 29.96%

Elaine Marshall will not require runoff

Polling (last month)
Richard Burr - Mike McIntyre - Undecided
        46%                   48%                   6%
        43%                   49%                   8%
        42%                   47%                   9%
        45%                   50%                   5%
        43%                   50%                   7%
        44%                   49%                   7%

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)

House

NC-01
Republican primary: Ashley Woolard 45.24%

NC-04
Republican primary: B.J. Lawson 45.99%

NC-07
Democratic primary: Frank McNeill 44.32%
Republican primary: Ilario Pantano 51.02%

NC-08
Republican primary: Harold Johnson 40.08%

NC-09
Republican primary: Robert Pittenger 44.57%

NC-11
Republican primary: Jeff Miller 40.25%

NC-12
Republican primary: Greg Dority 43.76%

NC-13
Republican primary: Bill Randall 42.88%

Ohio primary

Senate

Democratic primary

100% Reporting
Lee Fisher 50.19%
Jennifer Brunnen 49.81%

Polling (last month)
Rob Portman - Lee Fisher - Undecided
         47%                 46%              7%
         45%                 46%              9%
         47%                 47%              6%
         46%                 48%              6%
         48%                 45%              7%
         49%                 43%              8%

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup (previous: Lean D)
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup (previous: Lean D)
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

House

OH-02
Democratic primary: Victoria Wulsin 50.15%

OH-06
Republican primary: Bill Johnson 42.22%

OH-07
Democratic primary: Bill Conner 46.33%

OH-14
Democratic primary: Bill O'Neill 50.43%

OH-15
Democratic primary: Mary Jo Kilroy 57.85%

OH-16
Republican primary: Matt Miller 46.04%

OH-18
Republican primary: Bob Gibbs 20.88%

Indiana

Senate

Republican primary

100% Reporting
John Hostettler 45.76%
Marlin Stutzman 43.86%
Others 10.38%

Polling (last three months)
Evan Bayh - John Hostettler - Undecided
      65%                   29%                    6%
      67%                   26%                    7%
      63%                   28%                    9%
      66%                   30%                    4%
      68%                   25%                    7%
      70%                   25%                    5%

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

House

IN-03
Republican primary: Randy Borror 34.07%
Democratic primary: Tom Hayhurst 49.66%

IN-05
Republican primary: Dan Burton* 53.44%

IN-07
Republican primary: Marvin Scott 32.54%

IN-08
Republican primary: Larry Buschon 31.23%

IN-09
Republican primary: Todd Young 34.16%

[😥]

May 2nd, 2010
Senate approved McCain's request, 250,000 troops were deployed to Syria and Iraq to fight ISIL

May 7th, 2010
For the first time, doctors made a prediction about the life and health of Hillary Clinton:

"The worst part is over. We have managed to stabilize her condition. Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton is now in a coma, but we are sure that in about 2-3 months she will be conscious. Also, unfortunately, there is a negative prognosis regarding her ability to speak and see. Rehabilitation will be very long "

May 10th, 2010
Bill and Chelsea Clintons and staff of the Senator have confirmed that she will remain in the Senate and will not resign.

Bill Clinton: "I believe that Hillary will be fine. And if she wants, we will continue her presidential campaign"

July 15th, 2010
Dunlap, TN

Governor Phil Bredesen is holding a rally in support of Lincoln Davis, who is running for re-election in the district that McCain won by more than 20 percent.

Phil Bredesen has recently become an extremely active politician inside the country. He has done several important endorsements in competitive races, including Chad Causey in AR-01, Bobby Bright in AL-02, Tom Hayhurst in IN-03, Gary McDowell in MI-01. He also endorsed many Senate and Governor nominees, although he did not support anyone in TN-Gov.

He is expected to announce his presidential campaign. Bredesen is persistently looking for allies. He met several times with the most conservative Democratic Senator Ben Nelson (NE). Together with several Representatives, including Chet Edwards, Solomon Ortiz and Eddie Bernice Johnson in Texas, he held an event in support of gubernatorial nominee Bill White. Next week, Bredesen plans to take part in several rallies in Kentucky with Governor Steve Beshear in support of Senate nominee Daniel Mongiardo.

July 29th, 2010
Hillary Clinton has come out of a coma, but her condition is still bad

[😥]

May 11th, 2020

Nebraska primary

House

NE-01
Republican primary: Jeff Fortenberry* unopposed
Democratic primary: Ivy Harper unopposed
Rating: Safe R

NE-02
Republican primary: Lee Terry* unopposed
Democratic primary: Tom White 67.84%
Rating: Tossup

NE-03
Republican primary: Adrian Smith* 76.88%
Democratic primary: Scott Kleeb unopposed
Rating: Lean R


Governor

Republican primary
Dave Heineman* 91.67%
Others 8.33%

Democratic primary
Mike Meister 100%

Polling (last month)
Dave Heineman - Mike Meister - Undecided
          68%                      27%                  5%
          70%                      24%                  6%
          67%                      25%                  8%

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R

West Virginia primary

Senate

Democratic primary
Joe Manchin 68.75%
Ken Hechler 31.25%

Republican primary
John Raese 66.13%
Others 33.87%

Polling (last month)
Joe Manchin - John Raese - Undecided
         64%                 28%                 8%
         63%                 31%                 6%
         60%                 33%                 7%
         66%                 29%                 5%


Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

House

WV-01
Democratic primary: Mike Oliverio 53.66%
Republican primary: David McKinley 49.78%

Incumbent Allan Mollohan (D) defeated in primary

Rating: Lean D

WV-02
Republican primary: Shelley Moore Capito* unopposed
Democratic primary: Mike Callaghan 53.64%
Rating: Lean R

WV-03
Democratic primary: Nick Rahall* unopposed
Republican primary: Spike Maynard unopposed
Rating: Safe D

[😥]

May 18th, 2010

Arkansas primary

Senate

Democratic primary
Blanche Lincoln 46.32%
Bill Halter 45.87%
D.C. Morrison 7.81%

Runoff polling
Blanche Lincoln - Bill Halter - Undecided
             44%                 49%              7%
             45%                 51%              4%
             48%                 47%              5%

Republican primary
John Boozman 48.16%
Jim Holt 20.72%
Gilbert Baker 13.78%
Conrad Reynolds 6.63%
Kim Hendren 3.84%
Radney Alexander 3.65%
Others 3.22%

Runoff polling
John Boozman - Jim Holt - Undecided
           60%                 34%             6%
           57%                 36%             7%

General election polling
Blanche Lincoln - John Boozman - Undecided
           47%                        47%                   6%
           49%                        45%                   6%
           43%                        50%                   7%
           46%                        45%                   9%
           48%                        46%                   6%

Bill Halter - John Boozman - Undecided
      48%                   47%                  5%
      49%                   44%                  7%
      45%                   48%                  5%
      45%                   47%                  8%
      48%                   46%                  6%

Blanche Lincoln - Jim Holt - Undecided
            53%                 40%             7%
            54%                 39%             7%

Bill Halter - Jim Holt - Undecided
      53%            40%             7%
      52%            42%             6%

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean D (previous: Tossup)
Sabato: Lean D (previous: Lean R)
NYT: Tossup (previous: Lean R)
CNN: Lean D
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup (previous: Lean R)
Daily Kos: Tossup


House

AR-01
Democratic primary:
Tim Woolridge 35.64%
Chad Causey 28.97%

Republican primary: Rick Crawford 71.98%

Incumbent Marion Berry (D) retired

Rating: Tossup

AR-02
Democratic primary: Vic Snyder* 84.65%
Republican primary: Tim Griffin 63.24%
Rating: Lean D

AR-03
Republican primary:
Steve Womack 32.75%
Cecile Bledsoe 16.74%

Democratic primary: David Whitaker unopposed

Incumbent John Boozman (R) retired to run for U.S. Senator

Rating: Safe R

AR-04
Democratic primary: Mike Ross* unopposed
Republican primary: Bety Anne Rankin 54.58%
Rating: Safe D


Governor

Democratic primary
Mike Beebe* 100%

Republican primary
Jim Keet 100%

Polling (last two months)
Mike Beebe - Jim Keet - Undecided
       65%               27%             8%
       67%               27%             6%
       70%               26%             4%
       65%               28%             7%
       69%               25%             6%

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

Kentucky primary

Senate

Republican primary
Rand Paul 39.74%
Jim Bunning* 29.76%
Trey Grayson 26.78%
John Stephenson 2.09%
Gurley Marti 1.63%

Democratic primary
Daniel Mongiardo 43.64%
Jack Conway 43.58%
Darlene Price 12.78%

Polling (last month)
Rand Paul - Daniel Mongiardo - Undecided
       40%                    51%                     9%
       42%                    50%                     8%
       42%                    52%                     6%
       45%                    48%                     7%
       40%                    52%                     8%
       42%                    51%                     7%

Rating:
Cook: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
I.E.: Lean D (flip)
Sabato: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
NYT: Lean D (flip)
CNN: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
RCP: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
Fox News: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
Daily Kos: Lean D (flip)


House

KY-01
Republican primary: Ed Whitfield* unopposed
Democratic primary: Charles Hatchett unopposed
Rating: Safe R

KY-02
Republican primary: Brett Guthrie* 81.54%
Democratic primary: David Boswell unopposed
Rating: Tossup

KY-03
Democratic primary: John Yarmuth* unopposed
Republican primary: Todd Lally 48.74%
Rating: Safe D

KY-04
Republican primary: Geoff Davis* unopposed
Democratic primary: John Waltz 84.76%
Rating: Safe R

KY-05
Republican primary: Hal Rogers* 54.76%
Democratic primary: Jim Holbert 69.52%
Rating: Safe R

KY-06
Democratic primary: Ben Chandler* unopposed
Republican primary: Andy Barr 54.48%
Rating: Likely D

[😥]

18th May 2010

Oregon primary

Senate

Democratic primary
Ron Wyden* 100%

Republican primary
Jim Huffman 46.87%
Loren Later 20.54%
Shane Dinkel 14.76%
Thomas Stutzman 10.64%
Keith Waldron 7.19%

General election polling
Ron Wyden - Jim Huffman - Undecided
       60%                  33%                 7%
       64%                  32%                 4%
       63%                  31%                 6%

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D (previous: Likely D)
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D


House

OR-01
Democratic primary: David Wu* 80.92%
Republican primary: Rob Cornilles 41.07%
Rating: Safe D

OR-02
Republican primary: Greg Walden* unopposed
Democratic primary: Joyce Segers unopposed
Rating: Safe R

OR-03
Democratic primary: Earl Blumenauer* 91.23%
Republican primary: Delia Lopez unopposed
Rating: Safe D

OR-04
Democratic primary: Peter DeFazio* unopposed
Republican primary: Arthur Robinson 90.75%
Rating: Safe D

OR-05
Democratic primary: Kurt Schrader* unopposed
Republican primary: Scott Bruun 62.28%
Rating: Safe D


Governor

Democratic primary
Jeff Merkley 46.32%
Bill Bradbury 42.86%
Others 10.82%

Republican primary
Allen Alley 39.76%
Chris Dudley 36.72%
John Lim 12.76%
Bill Sizemore 6.34%
Others 4.42%

General election polling
Jeff Merkley - Allen Alley - Undecided
        55%                 38%              7%
        53%                 41%              6%
        54%                 41%              5%

Rating:
Cook: Lean D
I.E.: Likely D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Lean D
Fox News: Lean D
Daily Kos: Likely D

Pennsylvania primary

Senate

Republican primary
Pat Toomey 50.24%
Arlen Specter* 49.86%

Democratic primary
Kathy Dahlkemper 50.32%
Joe Sestak 49.68%

General election polling
Pat Toomey - Kathy Dahlkemper - Undecided
        44%                        50%                     6%
        41%                        51%                     8%
        39%                        54%                     7%
        39%                        55%                     6%
        43%                        52%                     5%
        41%                        52%                     7%

Hypothetical polling
Pat Toomey - Joe Sestak: 42%-51%
Arlen Specter - Kathy Dahlkemper: 49% - 45%
Arlen Specter - [colot=red]Joe Sestak[/color]: 50% - 45%

Rating:
Cook: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
I.E.: Likely D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
Sabato: Likely D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
NYT: Likely D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
CNN: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
RCP: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
Fox News: Lean D (flip) (previous: Tossup)
Daily Kos: Likely D (flip) (previous: Tossup)


House

PA-01
Democratic primary: Bob Brady* unopposed
Republican primary: none
Rating: Safe D

PA-02
Democratic primary: Chaka Fattah* unopposed
Republican primary: none
Rating: Safe D

PA-03
Democratic primary: Ron DiNicola 36.71%
Republican primary: Mike Kelly 29.07%

Incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper (D) retired to run for U.S. Senator

Rating: Lean D

PA-04
Democratic primary: Jason Altmire* unopposed
Republican primary: Keith Rothfus 45.78%
Rating: Likely D

PA-05
Republican primary: Glenn Thompson* 88.12%
Democratic primary: Michael Pipe unopposed
Rating: Safe R

PA-06
Republican primary: Pat Sellers 44.89%
Democratic primary: Manan Trivedi 50.42%

Incumbent Jim Gerlach (R) retired to run for Governor

Rating: Lean D (flip)

PA-07
Democratic primary: Bryan Lentz* unopposed
Republican primary: Pat Meehan unopposed
Rating: Tossup

PA-08
Democratic primary: Patrick Murphy* unopposed
Republican primary: Gloria Carlineo 35.67%
Rating: Likely D

PA-09
Republican primary: Bill Shuster* unopposed
Democratic primary: Tom Conners unopposed
Rating: Safe R

PA-10
Democratic primary: Chris Carney* unopposed
Republican primary: Tom Marino 41.02%
Rating: Lean D

PA-11
Democratic primary: Paul Kanjorski* 54.66%
Republican primary: Lou Barletta unopposed
Rating: Tossup

PA-12
Democratic primary: Mark Critz* 77.53%
Republican primary: Tim Burns 56.98%
Rating: Safe D

PA-13
Democratic primary: Allyson Schwartz* unopposed
Republican primary: Dee Adcock 48.17%
Rating: Safe D

PA-14
Democratic primary: Mike Doyle* unopposed
Republican primary: none
Rating: Safe D

PA-15
Republican primary: Charlie Dent* 82.82%
Democratic primary: Susan Wild 41.27%
Rating: Tossup

PA-16
Republican primary: Joe Pitts* unopposed
Democratic primary: Lois Herr unopposed
Rating: Likely R

PA-17
Democratic primary: Tim Holden* 65.28%
Republican primary: David Argall 32.43%
Rating: Safe D

PA-18
Republican primary: Tim Murphy* unopposed
Democratic primary: Dan Connolly unopposed
Rating: Safe R

PA-19
Republican primary: Todd Platts* 69.90%
Democratic primary: Eugene DePasquale 88.42%
Rating: Lean D (flip)


Governor

Democratic primary
Ed Rendell* 100%

Republican primary
Tom Corbett 52.36%
Jim Gerlach 47.64%

General election polling
Ed Rendell - Tom Corbett - Undecided
       59%                 36%                5%
       60%                 34%                6%
       58%                 34%                8%

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[😥]

Wasnt Ed Rendell Term Limited

In this scenario Bob Casey Jr. was elected in 2002, but retired to run for U.S. Senate in 2006. In 2006 Rendell was reelected, so he isn't term-limited

[😥]

1st June 2010

Alabama primary

Senate

Republican primary
Richard Shelby* 88.52%
Clint Moser 11.48%

Democratic primary
William Barnes 60.80%
Simone De Moore 39.20%

General election polling
Richard Shelby - William Barnes - Undecided
         60%                  31%               9%
         63%                  32%               5%
         62%                  32%               6%

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R


House

AL-01
Republican primary: Joe Bonner* unopposed
Democratic primary: none

Rating: Safe R

AL-02
Republican primary: Jay Love* unopposed
Democratic primary: Bobby Bright 79.64%

Rating: Lean D (flip)

AL-03
Republican primary: Mike Rogers* unopposed
Democratic primary: Steve Segrest unopposed

Rating: Lean R

AL-04
Republican primary: Robert Aderholt* unopposed
Democratic primary: none

Rating: Safe R

AL-05
Democratic primary: Parker Griffith* unopposed
Republican primary: Mo Brooks 65.61%

Rating: Tossup

AL-06
Republican primary: Spencer Bachus* unopposed
Democratic primary: none

Rating: Safe R

AL-07
Democratic primary:
Terri Sewell 37.45%
Shelia Smoot 29.33%

Republican primary: none

Rating: Safe D


Governor

Republican primary
Bradley Byrne 27.89%
Robert Bentley 25.15%
Tim James 25.11%
Roy Moore 19.31%
Others 2.54%

Runoff polling
Bradley Byrne - Robert Bentley: 48% - 45%

Democratic primary
Ron Sparks 52.74%
Arthur Davis 47.26%


General election polling
Bradley Byrne - Ron Sparks - Undecided
        55%               38%            7%
        53%               40%            7%
        51%               41%            8%
        52%               43%            5%
        53%               42%            5%

Robert Bentley - Ron Sparks - Undecided
        50%                 41%           9%
        48%                 46%           6%
        47%                 45%           8%
        50%                 43%           7%
        51%                 44%           5%

Rating:
Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Likely R
Sabato: Likely R
NYT: Likely R
CNN: Likely R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Likely R
Daily Kos: Safe R

[😥]

1st June 2010

Mississippi primary

House

MS-01
Democratic primary: Travis Childers* unopposed
Republican primary: Alan Nunnelee 51.82%

Rating: Tossup

MS-02
Democratic primary: Bennie Thompson* unopposed
Republican primary: Bill Marcy 61.87%

Rating: Safe D

MS-03
Republican primary: Gregg Harper* unopposed
Democratic primary: Joel Gill 52.33%

Rating: Safe R

MS-04
Democratic primary: Gene Taylor* unopposed
Republican primary: Steven Palazzo 57.15%

Rating: Lean D

New Mexico primary

House

NM-01
Democratic primary: Martin Heinrich* unopposed
Republican primary: Jon Barela unopposed

Rating: Lean D

NM-02
Democratic primary: Harry Teague* unopposed
Republican primary: Steve Pearce unopposed

Rating: Tossup

NM-03
Democratic primary: Ben Ray Lujan* unopposed
Republican primary: Tom Mullins 71.32%

Rating: Safe D


Governor

Democratic primary
Diane Denish 99.59%

Republican primary
Susana Martinez 50.70%
Allen Weh 27.59%
Doug Turner 11.61%
Pete Domenici Jr. 7.05%
Janice Arnold-Jones 3.05%

General election polling
Diane Denish -Susana Martinez - Undecided
       48%                 45%               8%
       51%                 41%               8%
       50%                 44%               6%
       46%                 47%               7%
       50%                 43%               7%

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean D
NYT: Lean D
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[😥]

8th June 2010

Arkansas runoff

Senate

Democratic primary
Bill Halter 50.78%
Blanche Lincoln* 49.22%

Republican primary
Jim Holt 50.07%
John Boozman 49.93%

General election polling
Bill Halter - Jim Holt - Undecided
     55%         37%          8%
     52%         42%          6%
     54%         39%          7%
     54%         41%          5%
     56%         38%          6%

Rating:
Cook: Lean D (previous: Tossup)
I.E.: Likely D (previous: Lean D)
Sabato: Lean D
NYT: Lean D (previous: Tossup)
CNN: Likely D (previous: Lean D)
RCP: Lean D (previous: Tossup)
Fox News: Likely D (previous: Tossup)
Daily Kos: Lean D (previous: Tossup)

Results from both primaries, Democratic and Republican, considered as a major upset, where frontrunner lost

House

AR-01
Democratic primary
Chad Causey 50.64%
Tim Woolridge 49.36%

Rating: Tossup

AR-03
Republican primary:
Steve Womack 60.52%
Cecile Bledsoe 39.48%

Rating: Safe R

California primary

Senate

Democratic primary
Barbara Boxer* unoppposed

Republican primary
Carly Fiorina 48.64%
Tom Campbell 39.79%
Others

General election polling
Barbara Boxer - Carly Fiorina - Undecided
        60%                35%              5%
        57%                35%              8%
        61%                33%              6%
        59%                34%              7%

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

House (only competitive races)

CA-02
Republican primary: Wally Herger* 68.45%
Democratic primary: Jim Reed unopposed

Rating: Tossup

CA-03
Democratic primary: Ami Bera* unopposed
Democratic primary: Doug Ose unopposed

Rating: Lean D

CA-04
Republican primary: Tom McClintock* 80.63%
Democratic primary: Charlie Brown 74.32%

Rating: Lean R

CA-10
Democratic primary: John Garamendi* unopposed
Republican primary: Gary Clift 57.74%

Rating: Likely D

CA-11
Democratic primary: Jerry McNenrey* unopposed
Republican primary: David Harmer 35.68%

Rating: Lean D

CA-18
Democratic primary: Dennis Cardoza* unopposed
Republican primary: Michael Berryhill unopposed

Rating: Safe D

CA-19
Republican primary: Jeff Denham 35.76%
Democratic primary: Loraine Goodwin 53.15%

Incumbent George Radinovich (R) retired

Rating: Likely R

CA-20
Democratic primary: Jim Costa* 78.35%
Republican primary: Andy Vidak 70.95%

Rating: Likely D

CA-23
Democratic primary: Lois Capps* unopposed
Republican primary: Tom Watson 35.92%

Rating: Safe D

CA-24
Republican primary: Elton Gallegly* unopposed
Democratic primary: Timothy Allison 47.21%

Rating: Lean R

CA-25
Republican primary: Howard McKeon* unopposed
Democratic primary: Jackie Conaway unopposed

Rating: Safe R

CA-26
Republican primary: David Dreier* 73.25%
Democratic primary: Russ Warner unopposed

Rating: Likely R

CA-36
Democratic primary: Jane Harman* 59.21%
Republican primary: Mattie Fein 50.22%

Rating: Likely D

CA-39
Democratic primary: Linda Sanchez* unopposed
Republican primary: Larry Andre unopposed

Rating: Safe D

CA-40
Republican primary: Ed Royce* unopposed
Democratic primary: Christina Avalos unopposed

Rating: Likely R

CA-41
Republican primary: Jerry Lewis* 65.69%
Democratic primary: Pat Meagher unopposed

Rating: Safe R

CA-42
Republican primary: Gary Miller* 52.46%
Democratic primary: Michael Williamson unopposed

Rating: Likely R

CA-44
Republican primary: Ken Calvert* 65.79%
Democratic primary: Bill Hedrick unopposed

Rating: Tossup

CA-45
Republican primary: Mary Bono Mack* 68.69%
Democratic primary: Raul Ruiz 59.76%

Rating: Tossup

CA-46
Republican primary: Dana Rohrabacher* unopposed
Democratic primary: Ken Arnold 58.78%

Rating: Safe R

CA-47
Democratic primary: Loretta Sanchez* unopposed
Republican primary: Van Tran 50.11%

Rating: Safe D

CA-48
Republican primary: John Campbell* unopposed
Democratic primary: Hans Keirstad 78.87%

Rating: Likely R

CA-50
Republican primary: Brian Bilbray* unopposed
Democratic primary: Scott Peters 48.54%

Rating: Lean R


Governor

Republican primary
Meg Whitman 67.85%

Democratic primary
Jerry Brown 85.61%

General election polling
Meg Whitman - Jerry Brown - Undecided
       34%               60%              6%
       34%               57%              7%
       35%               56%              9%
       34%               61%              5%

Rating:
Cook: Safe D (flip)
I.E.: Safe D (flip)
Sabato: Safe D (flip)
NYT: Safe D (flip)
CNN: Safe D (flip)
RCP: Safe D (flip)
Fox News: Safe D (flip)
Daily Kos: Safe D (flip)