2020 Senate election: process and result

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2018 Gubernatorial election results

D gain: AZ, FL, GA, IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, OH, OK, WI
R gain: AK, OR, RI

1) Arizona
David Garcia (D) 48,3%
Doug Ducey (R) inc. 48,1%
2) Florida
Andrew Gillum (D) 48,3%
Ron DeSantis (R) 48,15%
3) Georgia
Stacey Abrams (D) 50,1%
Brian Kemp (R) 48,4%
4) Illinois
J.B. Pritzker (D) 45,4%
Bruce Rauner (R) inc. 39,8%
5) Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D) 47,3%
Kim Reynolds (R) inc. 46,4%
6) Kansas
Laura Kelly (D) 41,4%
Kris Kobach (R) 40,9%
Greg Orman (I) 16,9%
7) Maine
Janet Mills (D) 45,21%
Shawn Moody (R) 45,19%
Tery Hayes (I) 9,6%
Michigan
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 52,6%
Bill Schuette (R) 43,9%
9) Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D) 46,72%
Adam Laxalt (R) 46,67%
10) New Mexico
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 52,7%
Steve Pearce (R) 44,1%
11) Ohio
Richard Cordray (D) 49,1%
Mike DeWine (R) 48,0%
12) Oklahoma
Drew Edmundson (D) 50,2%
Kevin Stitt (R) 48,6%
13) Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D) 51,1%
Scott Walker (R) inc. 47,4%
14) Alaska
Mike Dunleavy (R) 34,3%
Bill Walker (I) inc. 33,1%
Mark Begich (D) 30,6%
15) Oregon
Knute Buehler (R) 49,2%
Kate Brown (D) inc. 48,6%
16) Rhode Island
Allan Fung (R) 47,2%
Gina Raimondo (D) inc. 45,4%

For objective reasons, I just changed the results of the Governor's race in Iowa (I am currently working on "2022 Senate elections: process and results", where I need a Democratic governor in Iowa).
Thanks for understanding

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                                  Analysis Arizona Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 27 May 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 25 August 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Ruben Gallego- U.S. Representative
   2)Ann Kirkpatrick- U.S. Representative, 2016 nominee
   3)Matt Heinz- former state Representative
2.Potential:
    Greg Stanton- U.S. Representative, former Mayor of Phoenix
3.Declined:
   1)David Garcia- incumbent Governor
   2)Steve Farley- state Senator, 2018 gubernatorial candidate
Democratic primary polling
R.Gallego---A.Kirkpatrick---M.Heinz---???        Date
       43                    28                  22         7      18/11-24/11
       44                    27                  21         8      13/12-21/12
       43                    27                  22         8      24/12-05/01

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Michele Reagan- incumbent Secretary of State
   2)Debbie Lesko- U.S. Representative
   3)Marta McSally- former U.S. Representative, 2018 nominee
   4)Ben Quayle- former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Cindy McCain- incumbent Senator, widow of John McCain
   2)Meghan McCain- daughter of John McCain
   3)Jan Brewer- former Governor
   4)Jeff Flake- former Senator
Republican primary polling
M.Reagan---D.Lesko---M.McSally---B.Quayle---???         Date
         22              24                19                 23         12     11/11-20/11
         24              19                21                 22         14     13/12-21/12
         24              22                19                 22         14     24/12-05/01
         22              24                22                 20         12     02/01-13/01

No approval rating of incumbent Senator

General election polling
R.Gallego---M.Reagan---???        Date       R.Gallego---D.Lesko---???
        50                 44          6    11/11-20/11       49               45         6
        49                 44          7    18/11-24/11       49               44         7
        50                 43          7    24/12-05/01       50               44         6
        49                 44          7    02/01-13/01       50               44         6

Gallego---McSally---???           Date          Gallego---Quayle---???
     46             46          8      11/11-20/11        53            39         8
     45             48          7      18/11-24/11        55            38         7
     45             49          6      24/12-05/01        55            37         8
     44             49          7      02/01-13/01        56            37         7

Stanton---Reagan---???          Date           Stanton---Lesko---???
     51              43         6      11/11-20/11         50           44        6
     49              44         7      02/01-13/01         49           44        7

No polls with other candidates


Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

Opinion polls showed that Ruben Gallego wins over all GOP candidates, except Marta McSally. But her chances of winning the primers GOP are quite small

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24th January 2020
Breaking news: Carte Goodwin declined to run

Today is the last day of the opportunity to submit an application. Carte Goodwin declined to run. So, DP remained without a candidate in West Virginia

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28th January 2020
Breaking news: Andy Beshear declined to run

Today is the last day of the opportunity to submit an application. Andy Beshear declined to run.So, in Kentucky, 2 candidates from the DP:
1) Alison Lungergan Grimes
2) Crit Luallen

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Capito wouldn't be unopposed. At the least, a random some dude would run against her.

Well, I took it into consideration

29th January
Paula Jean Swearengen launches a write-in campaign for the Senate in West Virginia

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28th January 2020
Breaking news: Martha Roby declined to run

Today, Martha Roby declined to run. Instead, she said she would run again to the House of Representatives. So, GOP has 4 candidates in Alabama:
  1) Robert Aderholt
  2) Bradley Byrne
  3) Luther Strange
  4) Bobby Bright

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15th February 2020
Breaking news: Brad Ashford declined to run

Today, Brad Ashford declined to run. Also, today is the last day of the opportunity to submit an application. So, DP remained without a candidate in Nebraska

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10th February 2020
Breaking news: Ken Salazar declined to runBreaking news: John Salazar declared to run


Today, Ken Salazar declined to run. Also, at a joint press conference with his brother which held today, he said that he would support his brother John Salazar, who said he would run.So, Democratic Party has 4 candidates in Colorado:
  1) Mark Udall
  2) Cary Kennedy
  3) Donna Primavera
  4) John Salazar
Governor of Colorado Jared Polis is potential candidate

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16th February 2020

Tom Vilsack suffered a heart attack today. Unfortunately, now he is in a coma. This is a very sad news. It is likely that he will soon be out of the race

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19th February 2020
Breaking news: Jared Polis declined to run

Today, incumbent Governor of Colorado Jared Polis, the only potential candidate for the Senate from Colorado declined to run.He said that he would not support any candidate until the primary results were obtained.So, Democratic Party has 4 candidates in Colorado:
  1) Mark Udall
  2) Cary Kennedy
  3) Donna Primavera
  4) John Salazar

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20th February 2020
Breaking news: Asa Hutchinson declined to run

Today, popular incumbent Arkansas Asa Hutchinson, potential candidate for the Senate from Arkansas against unpopular incumbent Senator Tom Cotton in primary, and against popular former Governor Mike Beebe in general election declined to run.He also said that he wants to run in 2022, when John Boozman will retire (Boozman has already stated that he wants to retire)

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20th February 2020
Breaking news: Richard Hudson declared to run

Today, U.S. Representtive Richard Hudson declared to run to U.S. Senate from North Carolina.He made a massive critique of the incumbent senator Thom Tillis.Meanwhile, a rugged battle between Anthony Foxx and Jeff Jackson unfolded on the Democratic field

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25th February 2020
Breaking news: Tom Vilsack drops out Iowa race

Today,wife of Tom Vilsack, said that her husband drops out from the race to the U.S. Senate from Iowa due to a sharp deterioration in health

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28th February 2020
Breaking news: Tom Vilsack died

Today is a very sad day, Tom Vilsack died. Their condolences has already been expressed by Joni Ernst, Abby Finkenauer, Cindy Axne, David Young, Dave Loebsack, Chuck Grassley, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, George Bush Jr. and many other politicians like in Iowa and the United States as a whole.
Eternal memory of Tom Vilsack

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3th March
TEXAS PRIMARY
This is first primary in 2020 cycle

Final results

Democratic Party
Julian Castro 100%

Republican Party
John Cornyn 100%


General election
John Cornyn (R) inc.
Julian Castro (D)

Latest polls (last month)
J.Cornyn---J.Castro---???            Date
       48               44         8       04/02-17/02
       42               49         9       12/02-23/02 (D-Castro)
       47               44         7       12/02-24/02
       52               40         8       14/02-23/02 (R-Cornyn)
       51               40         9       16/02-25/02 (R-Cornyn)
       53               47         --       19/02-02/03
       47               44         7       21/01-01/03
       45               53         2       25/02-02/03 (D-Castro)

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5 March 2020
Breaking news: Jack Kingston declared to run

Today, former U.S. Representtive Jack Kingston declared to run to U.S. Senate from Georgia.He made a massive critique of the incumbent senator David Perdue and his challenger Karen Handel.
And in a democratic field, Hank Johnson tried to capture the voices of blacks, while Teresa Tomlinson tried to portray himself as a representative of political anti-establishment, and also wanted to win left votes with the support of Bernie Sanders

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8th March 2020
Breaking news: Paul LePage declined to run

Today, former Governor of Maine Paul LePage declined to run and endorsed incumbent Senator Susan Collins over her opponent Btuce Poliquin

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Can we have Susan Rice in ME please

I'm sorry but she is not running, and this place is very likely to save Susan Collins, unfortunately

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11th March 2020
Breaking news: Abby Finkenauer declared to run
Breaking news: Rod Blum declared to run

After the death of Tom Vilsack, the Democratic Party of Iowa was left without a candidate. Abby Finkenauer, who was still regarded as a potential candidate, today has finally announced that she will run for the Senate.


Also on the field of GOP, today, member of Tea Party, former U.S. Representative, who lost his seat to Abby Finkenauer by 15 points, Rid Blum said he would run, and also condemned Joni Ernst. He received massive support from U.S. Representative Steve King

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12th March 2020
Breaking news: Tom Kean Jr. declined to run

Today, Tom Kean Jr. declined to run for U.S. Senate from New Jersey.It's made Chris Christie only Republican candidate in New Jersey

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17th March
ILLINOIS PRIMARY

Final results

Democratic Party
Dick Durbin 100%

Republican Party
Adam Kinzinger 100%


General election
Dick Durbin (D) inc.
Adam Kinzinger (R)

Latest polls (last month)
D.Durbin---A.Kinzinger---???            Date
       53               40              7       21/02-02/03
       50               41              9       25/02-04/03 (R-Kinzinger)
       52               40              8       28/02-14/03
       54               39              7       01/03-13/03
       56               38              6        01/03-15/03 (D-Durbin)

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20 March 2020
Breaking news: Greg Stanton declined to run

Today, U.S. Representtive Greg Stanton declined to run to U.S. Senate from Arizona.He endorsed other U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego

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23 March 2020
Breaking news: Markwayne Mullin declared to run

Today, U.S. Representtive Markwayne Mullin declared to run to U.S. Senate from Oklahoma.This is made 4 candidates from GOP to replace retiring Senator Jim Inhofe:
1) Scott Russell
2) Scott Pruitt
3) Markwayne Mullin
Scott Pruitt was endosed by Donald Trump

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26 March 2020
Breaking news: Ed Gillespie declared to run

Today, 2017 gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie declared to run to U.S. Senate from Virginia.This is made 2 candidates from GOP:
1) Ed Gillespie
2) Corey Stewart
Ed Gillespie was endosed by Donald Trump

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04th April 2020
Breaking news: Deval Patrick declined to run

Today, former Governor Deval Patrick declined to run to U.S. Senate from Massachusetts.He makes no endorsements