Lucky star states in US presidential elections

[David T]

Harry Truman was very lucky to carry Illinois in 1948.  He probably could not have done so if Henry Wallace had been on the ballot in the state.  In other words, Republican Governor Dwight Green and the Republican-controlled state legislature, by providing for easier ballot access, could probably have enabled Dewey to carry the state.

That's my concept of a "lucky" state--not simply one that you carry narrowly, but one that you wouldn't have carried at all if not for some unexpected development beyond your control.

[David T]

Another example is Florida 2000.  If Elian Gonzalez had drowned--or if his mother had made it to Florida or had simply stayed in Cuba--Gore IMO would have carried the state by a sufficient margin that hanging chads, recounts, etc. would be irrelevant.

[David T]

The classic example of a "lucky" state:  New York for Cleveland in 1884.  Samuel Burchard's "rum, Romanism, and rebellion" plus rainy weather in Republican areas of Upstate New York plus the Delmonico's dinner plus Conkling evidently undermining Blaine in Stalwart strongholds...

[David T]

Jimmy Carter had two strokes of luck in New York in 1976: First, the FORD TO CITY:  DROP DEAD headline, and second, Eugene McCarthy being kept off the ballot...

[David T]

Ronald Reagan narrowly carried Arkansas in 1980--it was then one of the most Democratic states in the South, and had gone for Carter over Ford by 65-35 in 1976--mainly because of the decision to house Cuban refugees at Fort Chafee (some of them rioted).  The same decision also resulted in the defeat of Governor Bill Clinton...

[David T]

Carter could have won without Wisconsin in November 1976 as long as he carried Ohio.  On the other hand, his narrow victory in the Wisconsin primary over Udall may have been essential to his winning the nomination...