Bush Leads in Georgia by Only 3%

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http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/insider/index.html

Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Political Insider
Buzz from the Backrooms, War Rooms, and the Golden Dome
Thursday 2/12/04

...

Fresh Democratic poll: Bush strong, but slightly stale in Georgia; and Kerry seems to be catching on.

Fresh from his victory in pushing Atlanta's sales-tax-for-sewers bill through the state Senate, Kasim Reed of Atlanta has been named co-chairman of the John Kerry presidential campaign in Georgia. His partner will be David Worley, the former state Democratic Party chairman and congressional candidate.

Reed, a confidant of Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, said Kerry could be counted on for at least one visit to Georgia before the March 2 primary.

Recent polling might make him happier to be here.

Democratic pollster Beth Shapiro on Wednesday produced a poll showing President Bush's re-elect numbers still below the 50 percent mark -- lower than expected, she said, in a state that he carried comfortably in 2000. Bush's race against a generic Democrat has also closed a tad since October.

According to Shapiro's numbers, support for Bush is strongest in North Georgia, perhaps because of Zell Miller's endorsement. Surprisingly, Bush support is at lowest ebb in Middle Georgia.

Here are her numbers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points:

VOTE FOR

Republican George W. Bush
2/04: 47%
10/03: 49%

Democratic candidate
2/04: 44%
10/03: 41%

LIKE TO SEE BUSH REELECTED

Yes
2/04: 48%
10/03: 48%

No
2/04: 46%
10/03: 44%

The poll also shows Kerry leaping to the front of the pack with Georgia Democrats likely to participate in the March 2 presidential primary. Shapiro considers Kerry "well-positioned to win the primary." Sen. John Edwards is running a distant second, Al Sharpton doesn't seem to be moving, and support for Don't Know seems to be shrinking.
...

Within the MoE in a what should be a strong Bush state. Not good news for Bush.  Then again, keep in mind that this poll was conducted by a Democratic organization.  Perhaps it is only a preview of how close 2004 is shaping up to be.

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Zachman and GWBfan, I don't think the true GA numbers are this close.  But I don't think Bush will have another landslide (55%+) here in Nov.

Like I said, I think the closeness of many of these state and national polls is more representative of the national deadlock the country is currently experiencing.

It may also mean that both Bush and the Dem will have to campaign more than their strategists would have liked in states that should be considered "safe" for them.

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Zachman and GWBfan, I don't think the true GA numbers are this close.  But I don't think Bush will have another landslide (55%+) here in Nov.

Like I said, I think the closeness of many of these state and national polls is more representative of the national deadlock the country is currently experiencing.

It may also mean that both Bush and the Dem will have to campaign more than their strategists would have liked in states that should be considered "safe" for them.

I'm sorry QQQQQQ, all this means is that the media is so desparate to show Bush as weak. He is not, mark my words. They are outraged that he is liked so well in the south, and other parts of the USA. They are getting an early start to doing everything they can to try an bring the man down. The media will do everything they can to try and stop the momentum Bush and the GOP have had over th elast 4 years. Why?, because it means less voice for them! Don't worry though, my family are GA Republicans, so I know the real "smell" in the air to when it come to Dem Spin. The media may try and fool some of the people some of the time.......They are not kidding the ones who live here and know the true direction of the political landscape. GA will go at least 12-15 points for Bush, I wouldn't even concern myself if I were you. It too is one of those states that has become more GOP, and you know it too because you live there. It is as reliable for the GOP as Mass. is for the Dems and you know it!

Well, Gopman, that sounded somewhat hostile, but I'll have to assume it was just your enthusiasm for electoral politics :-)

In no way did I imply that I thought the Dem would win GA.  I thought it was intriguing, though, that this poll, albeit one taken by a partisam organization, showed the candidates so close in a state considered one of Bush's strongest.

I was merely passing along this story to the forum for discussion of any implications, so I respect (and agree with) your assessment that GA will be solidly Bush.

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remember guys, georgia just elected sonny perdue governor.  if a weak republican like perdue can beat a popular incumbent, im darn certain bush can carry the state....easily.

this reminds me of a poll i saw sometime around december of 1999, it showed bush leading gore in massachusetts.

The reason Sonny was elected was purely because of personal dislike for former Governor Roy Barnes, a Democrat.

Barnes was not "popular" - he was well-funded, and not much more.  No charisma.  Many voters thought him to be arrogant and power-happy ((including myself, a staunch Dem, even - what does that say about Barnes' popularity?).

To say nothing of that entire state flag fiasco, which continues today.  Barnes, in my opinion, and took the moral initiative, something Zell Miller didn't have the spine to do his his 8 years as Governor.  And Barnes payed the political price.

But Sonny's appeals for the former racist flag fell on deaf ears in the Dem-controlled state legislature.  Now we get vote on March 2 between 2 compromise flags.  The 1956 racist flag is absent.  Sonny has lost the flagger constituency and will face one of two strong and very popular Democrats in 2006.  I think we all can predict just 1 term for Sonny.