Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Yurii Butusov: Four border settlements captured (Strileche, Krasne, Pylne, Borysivka). Area of ​​the occupied territory is more than 30 square kilometers

At night, Russian troops with forces of up to 4-5 infantry battalions crossed the state border line and captured four border villages - Strileche, Krasne, Pylne, Borysivka. In other areas, Russian attacks were repulsed, the enemy suffered significant losses. Insignificant progress was also recorded in the Vovchansk district. The largest occupied settlement is Streleche.

This area under the border has long been a de facto gray zone, the line of defense was not deployed there, and therefore the enemy managed to create a bridgehead up to 10 km wide and up to 5 km deep on the territory of Ukraine without much hindrance. The total area of ​​the occupied territory is more than 30 square kilometers. It is about 40 km from Kharkiv.

Source: https://t.me/ButusovPlus

[Woody]

In the coming days there is probably going to be a heavy battle for Vovchansk.

[Woody]

DeepstateUA: "The enemy's offensive continues near Gatyshche, Lukyantsi and Hlyboke."

The gray zone expands

https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/50.2267/36.8262

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1789106880733712696

[Woody]

I feel like the AFU high command decided they are willing to sacrifice some swath of land in Kharkov to maintain the front in Donetsk. Which is reasonable considering the Russians can't take Kharkov city, and the Donetsk urban sprawl is the best blockage to stop a Russian offensive

The consensus is that Russia wants to advance far enough that Kharkov City is within artillery range, and at the same time maintain a buffer zone.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1789125542819549394

[Woody]

Deepstate now shows the border settlements as fully occupied by Russia/non-grey zone and the Russian bridgehead widening in the directions of Liptsy & Vovchansk. First time the Russians are occupying these lands ever since they had to flee back to Russia initially after the 2022 Kharkiv offensive. Only this time, I think they are staying there for good.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/50.2703/36.6717

[Woody]

Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1789401983830438358

[Woody]

Last time Russians took so much swaths of land in under a day was during the initial stages of the invasion (Feb-March 2022):

[Woody]

Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Hatysche, Krasne, Morokhovets and Oliiynykove villages of Kharkiv region of Ukraine

https://t.me/bbbreaking/181483

[Woody]

Yurii Butusov:

https://twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1789567446082367640

The situation following the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region at 1:00 a.m. on May 12

Russian troops formed two bridgeheads in the Kharkiv region along the border. The depth of the enemy's advance is small, up to 5-6 km, but the Russians have expanded the offensive front. In total, in two days, the enemy captured about 100 square kilometers of the border strip along the border.

The first direction of the enemy's advance near Kharkiv is the ridge of heights in the area of the villages of Liptsi, Ternove, and Staritsa.

The second direction of the enemy's advance is the city of Vovchansk. The enemy went directly to the outskirts of Vovchansk, which is approximately 5 km from the state border.

The intention of the Russian command is obvious:

1. Shackle our troops and withdraw reserves to localize the offensive.

2. Go to the ridge of dominant heights along the border to create a buffer zone to create a bridgehead for further offensive actions in the Kharkiv area.

3. In case of a successful advance and consolidation - to create bridgeheads for an attack in depth, first of all in the direction of Vovchansk, to cover our Kupyan group.

The enemy shifts reserves and uses significant infantry and armored forces, a significant number of drones.

Nevertheless, the Russian troops advance slowly, and do not try to break through with large forces in some narrow area. They create pressure on a wide front and point-concentrate forces to attack individual nodes of the defense, where it is organized.

Ukrainian troops also operate dispersedly on a wide front. The situation is difficult, the enemy has the tactical initiative.

But our front is getting stronger. There are problems in management, in the organization at the level of the higher command, because far from everything was properly prepared and checked to repel the expected enemy attack. They are trying to fix everything now.

There is currently no threat of an attack on Kharkiv, the enemy is far enough away, his forces are limited, and there is no rapid advance. The further advance of the enemy depends on how heavy the losses will be inflicted on the Russians in this border battle.

But the enemy checks the density of our defense and has the ability to maneuver reserves, and the threat cannot be underestimated in any case.

-Yurii Butusov

[Woody]

David Cameron: Situation in Kharkiv 'extremely dangerous'

https://kyivindependent.com/david-cameron-situation-in-kharkiv-extremely-dangerous/

[Woody]

Ukrainian commander: "The Russians simply walked in" (Kharkiv)

Denys Yaroslavskyi is angry.

As the Commander of a Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit, he fought in Ukraine’s surprise offensive in Kharkiv in the autumn of 2022, which pushed back an initial Russian invasion all the way back to the border.

But now Denys and his men are facing the prospect of doing the same all over again.

Their advances are only a few miles deep but have swallowed up around 100km (62 miles) of Ukrainian territory. In the more heavily defended east of Ukraine, it’s taken Russia months to achieve the same.

Denys wants to know what happened to Ukraine’s defences.

“There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields” he says.

He says officials had claimed that defences were being built at huge cost, but in his view, those defences simply weren’t there. “Either it was an act of negligence, or corruption. It wasn’t a failure. It was a betrayal”.

But Ukraine appears to have been ill-prepared - despite official denials.

Denys, speaking from a park in Kharkiv, says within an hour he’ll be back on the front line with his men close to the town of Vovchansk, just 5km (3 miles) from the Russian border.

Russian troops are already reported to have entered the edge of the town. Denys tells me he fears it could soon be back in Russian hands.

“Of course I’m angry,” Denys says. “When we were fighting back for this territory in 2022, we lost thousands of people. We risked our lives.

"And now because someone didn’t build fortifications, we’re losing people again.”

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo

[Woody]

Commander-in-chief of AFU Oleksandr Syrskyi: Northern Kharkiv front "significantly worsened"

The Ukrainian army’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that the situation in the country’s eastern Kharkiv region had “significantly worsened” for Ukrainian forces on Sunday as Russia claimed it had captured four new villages in its continued offensive on the area.

Syrskyi said that Ukrainian forces were engaged in “fierce defensive battles” in the Kharkiv region and that while conditions had “significantly worsened” in recent days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had managed to hold their defensive line and prevent Russian troops from advancing further into the region.

On Saturday, Russia said it had captured the villages of Borisivka, Ogirtseve, Pletenivka, Pylna and Strilecha, also along the border in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian war monitoring project DeepState confirmed the Russian claim on Sunday.

Source: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/05/12/ukrainian-military-chief-describes-worsened-situation-in-kharkiv-region-amid-russian-advances-en-news

[Woody]

Deepstate has updated their map again, Russians have penetrated Kharkiv Oblast by some 8 kilometers now. Vovchansk's outskirts are now in the gray-zone, which matches with the reports of ongoing fighting in the town:

[Woody]

Russian flag raised over administrative building in Hlyboke, Kharkiv Oblast. Russians are now on the outskirts of Lyptsi:

[Woody]

Deepstate:

The enemy advanced near Vovchansk, in Hlyboke, near Yahidne, south of Pervomaiske, in Krasnohorivka and near Verbove. The enemy occupied Lukianivka, the situation in Zelene was updated.

Deepstate increases the gray-zone in Vovchansk.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/50.2378/36.6270

[Woody]

wait I was told by some twitter post that the town was not experiencing fighting

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1790132722142150741

Once again, I want to note that while the lack of aid to Ukraine greatly contributed to what we are seeing right now in #Kharkiv, the key problem was still the command that failed to prepare for a well-known Russian offensive.

The units were simply not prepared to fight. It's not only a fortifications issue; it's a lack of cohesiveness, poor communication, bad positioning, and poor training of the stationed units.

The good news is that the person responsible for this in Kharkiv was swiftly removed, however I am concerned that this may just be scapegoating.

The bad news is that our highest military and political leadership doesn't like negative reports, and units/commands that report problems are frowned upon. This leads to commanders unwilling to ask for help and report the real state of affairs, instead trying to blur away problems and hoping that they will never bubble up. This is a problem that stems from the highest leadership, not from the bottom.

Here is an exclusive video showing how Russian troops are moving uncontested in large groups, clustered up west of #Vovchansk.

Please understand that while everyone is looking for positive news, we have real stakes here, and blind trust doesn't work. Also, while our leadership makes mistakes, it should not stop us from supporting Ukrainian people and Ukrainian soldiers.

Geolocation details:
📍50.265359, 36.794540

[Woody]

Ukrainian General Staff on Vovchansk: "In order to save the lives of our servicemen and avoid losses, the units carried out a maneuver and moved to more advantageous positions" - In essence we're retreating from parts of the town

In separate areas, in the Lukyantsi and Vovchansk districts, due to the impact of fire and assault actions of the enemy, in order to save the lives of our servicemen and avoid losses, the units carried out a maneuver and moved to more advantageous positions. The fighting continues.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/

[Woody]

Vovchansk is falling faster than I expected. The next strategic goal after this would be Liptsy

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1790618417243783259
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790658401715786102

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1790438797630439846

[Woody]

Ukrainians have withdrawn from the northern section of Vovchansk (Everything north of the Vovcha river)

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarWatchs/status/1791042980981178848

note: in the background you can see they took the liberty of changing the ukrainian spelling of the town in the welcome sign to the russian one

[Woody]

Putin in China:

Putin says Russian army has no orders to capture Kharkiv, troops are creating "sanitary zone" near the border

The president announced this at a briefing following the Russian-Chinese negotiations in Harbin. According to Putin, the offensive in the Kharkov direction is connected with the creation of a sanitary zone in response to shelling. There are currently no plans to take control of Kharkov.

https://t.me/ostorozhno_novosti/26238

[Woody]

Washington Post: Russia has gained more land in one month (April to May 2024), than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive (June to December 2023)

The amount of territory Russia has occupied over the last several weeks is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/russia-ukraine-front-line-gains/