Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663
Political Matrix E: 1.81, S: -6.78
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« on: December 03, 2008, 07:48:33 PM » |
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Obama v Huckabee definitely would have brought out the worst in terms of regional divides and hatreds, although Obama would have had the enormous advantage of having every single Kerry state completely impenetrable against Huckabee. (In the end this was true against McCain as well, but Obama at least had to spend money in PA, for example.) I disagree with some of the % on Rob's map (Huckabee would break 60% in TN and KY, and maybe in TX, Obama would break 60% in NH, and ME-02 definitely wouldn't be competitive), but I think it's pretty accurate overall.
Obama v Romney is much harder to say. The argument in favor of Romney doing well is that he could certainly make a compelling case for handling the economy, but the argument against is the equally compelling case that Romney is just another one of the fatcats who caused the crisis. Which message would have prevailed is difficult to say, but it means Obama v Romney could have ranged from a massive Obama landslide to a (relatively) narrow Romney victory. Either way, white turnout in the South would have been dismal.
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