Canada 2008: Official Results Thread

[Verily]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

[Verily]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

Surprising that it fell while South didn't. Perhaps growth tops affluence, but then look at Oakville, Halton... strange, isn't it. I don't get it.

Paul Szabo was much more entrenched as an incumbent. That's my best guess.

[Verily]

Anyway, analysis.

Dion is obviously gone; expect him to resign as leader within the month if not the week. Ignatieff will probably succeed him, although Rae will try again, and Martha Hall Findlay may act as a kingmaker. (It's telling that all three likely leadership candidates are from the Toronto area.)

This should be good enough to keep the Conservatives in line behind Harper, at least for now. Same goes for Layton, and Mulcair's maneuverings will be cut short by the lack of fellow Quebec NDPers in Parliament and his razor-thin re-election margin.

Duceppe, well, the Bloc doesn't really have any other choices. He might lead the PQ if Pauline Marois calls it quits for whatever reason, but otherwise he'll be around for a while. I'm not sure about May, whether she will get the blame for failing to secure a seat or credit for posting a few very strong results across the country and breaking out of Harris's 4% range. I lean towards her sticking around at least until the legally mandated 2009 election, but probably not thereafter.

[Verily]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

Surprising that it fell while South didn't. Perhaps growth tops affluence, but then look at Oakville, Halton... strange, isn't it. I don't get it.

Paul Szabo was much more entrenched as an incumbent. That's my best guess.

I suppose him having a European surname can't have hurt.

True. Anti-Muslim sentiment may have played a role in Miss.-Erindale.

[Verily]

Two tight races to watch in Quebec still, in Ahuntsic and in Brossard-La Prairie (both Lib-BQ marginals). Brossard-La Prairie would be the only Liberal seat in Quebec outside of Montreal-Laval and Hull.

[Verily]

Anyone else kind of shocked by how tight Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier ended up being? Imagine if the Conservatives had run a candidate.

[Verily]

Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.)

That's because Stelmach's an idiot who is unpopular in Calgary, not because Calgary necessarily favours the Liberals, but rather because they disfavour the Tory Premier.

And mostly because there's also an NDP in Edmonton.

Well, apparently there's a Green Party in Calgary. Calgary Centre and Calgary Centre-North were two of the best Green ridings in the country.

[Verily]

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/10/16/dion-plans.html

That was quick...

Good riddance, and no surprise. The first non-interim Liberal leader to fail to become PM in over a century.

[Verily]

Why isn't there a Bloc Right and a Bloc Left?

Because they would never win anything. The Bloc depends on voters from all ends of the political compass to win seats. If they split up, "Bloc Right" would get obliterated almost immediately and "Bloc Left" would only win a handful of seats in the Montreal area. The rest would fall to the Liberals or Conservatives due to vote splitting.

In its last years, Social Credit was basically "Bloc Right", but it had no "Bloc Left" splitting the Quebec nationalist vote.

[Verily]

Sorry, just three wongs...

VANCOUVER KINGSWAY (2000/11/27)

LEUNG, Sophia    Lib    parliamentarian     16,118     
WONG, Alice    CA    college administrator     11,076     
WONG, Victor    N.D.P.    project manager     5,924     
WONG, Kanman    P.C.    computer salesperson     1,805

Same Alice Wong who was just elected in Richmond?