Would Obama be winning Arizona if he weren't running against McCain?
it would be very similar to New Mexico and Colorado if McCain weren't running. Rememeber Clinton won here in 96.
Not that strong, but Obama would probably be running no more than five points behind, probably closer. It depends on who the Republican replacement candidate is, too. (Anyone in favor of amnesty loses the minuteman vote but does okay among Hispanics, Romney would increase Mormon turnout, etc.)
Arizona does have a stronger Republican presence than the other Southwestern states as a result of a very wealthy white population in Phoenix and Tucson and a high Mormon population. (Nevada also has the latter, but its white voters are not as high-income as in Arizona.) Arizona's major Democratic demographics, Hispanics and Native Americans, turn out at rates less than half that of the state's white population.
