When will the first VP announcement be made, and who will make it?

[Verily]

Something that doesn't get discussed very often here. John Kerry's choice of John Edwards was (intentionally) leaked to the press on July 6, and was, as I recall, the earliest public VP selection. Al Gore selected Joe Lieberman in early August of 2000 while Bush made his selection of Cheney public on July 25.

It is unlikely that a VP decision from either side will come before Kerry announced his decision in 2004, which at the time was probably prompted by declining poll ratings as the Abu Ghraib scandal faded from voters' minds. But will they both come in August? Both in July? McCain first, because he's trailing and needs a boost? Or Obama first, because his numbers have begun to slip, or for some other reason?

[Verily]

Oh, and Bob Dole confirmed speculation that Jack Kemp would be his VP candidate on August 10, 1996.

[Verily]

I say Obama chooses his running mate in early August...and McCain chooses his in mid-late August.

That would be an unusually late selection. I think we can probably rule out any choices coming after Kemp in 1996 much as we can rule out any choice coming before Edwards in 2004. After all, everyone rushes to be at the front of newscycles much more so than even a decade ago.

[Verily]

Verily, you can't just look at the date the announcement was made in isolation.  You have to look at when it was made relative to when the convention was held.  IIRC, in every one of those cases except for Kerry/Edwards, the announcemet was made just days before the convention.  The announcements this time around are likely to be late in calendar terms because the conventions are so late.

True, I hadn't been thinking about that. But I also think that, with tradition being broken, candidates are much more likely to announce at a politically convenient time (as early as c. July 10 being possible) rather than the traditional time.

[Verily]

And just now, I caught this post by Ambinder:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/vice_presidential_searches_an.php

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Btw, maybe I'm in the wrong demographic group or the wrong social circle or something, but does the world really stop when the Olympics are being held?  Just based off of people I know, I wouldn't have expected that the Olympics are *so* popular that any political announcement made during the games is expected to get buried.

Not that popular, no, but I imagine it's much better not to competing for space on the major networks. And the Olympics are likely to get coverage for the controversy of being in China as well as for whenever an American wins anything. It wasn't something that occurred to me, but it might put early August out of range as the options are a Friday, a weekend, and a weekday before the opening of the Olympics, which will be the main news story over the following weekend.

[Verily]

Maybe July 31, then? Or I suppose it could happen during the Olympics but well after the opening ceremony and well before the end. August 14 would work.