Potomac Primaries.

[Verily]

Isn't NOVA full of really affluent white people?  That's one of Obama's strongest groups.  He's going to be very competitive in VA and he might actually sweep Potomac Tuesday especially if he takes all three states this Saturday.

I had NOVA in mind when I said it would be very close. Hillary should do well in the rest of the state.

NOVA + 19% black = Obama (Note that nearly all of the Democratic areas in the southeast of the state are plurality black). Not by the enormous margins he'll rack up in Maryland and DC, but still definitely Obama is favored.

McCain should win all of them, although honestly the tiny size of the GOP electorate in DC means that it's much less predictable than it should be.

[Verily]

Petersburg: 79% black
Richmond: 57% black
Hampton: 44% black
Norfolk: 44% black
Newport News: 39% black
Chesapeake: 29% black
Charlottesville: 22% black
Virginia Beach: 18% black

The cities outside of NOVA are really the only Democratic areas. And, as you can see, they are, for the most part, very favorable to Obama. (Chesapeake approximates the demographics of Alabama, which Obama won 56-42.) Clinton could win Charlottesville and should win Virginia Beach, but otherwise Obama will do very well among non-NOVA Democrats.

[Verily]

Louisiana: Likely Obama (assuming the black population is still ~30%, which seems reasonable)
Nebraska: Safe Obama (may end up as a Kansas-like blowout)
Washington: Likely Obama (similar to Colorado, honestly)
Virgin Islands: No idea, irrelevant
Maine: Probably depends on who shows up here, maybe lean Clinton based on NH results
DC: Ultra-safe Obama
Maryland: Safe Obama
Virginia: Likely Obama
Hawaii: Likely Obama (not convinced of home state advantage among so many Asians)
Wisconsin: Lean Obama, given the results in Minnesota and a flood of volunteers from Illinois