Despite ARG's horrid reputation I think this may be fairly accurate. People tend to forget that Delaware has a sizeable black population so its not surprising this one is very close. Plus, Obama has been gaining in national polls of late and this generally reflects that.
Actually, I think Delaware should end up pretty solidly for Obama, if for no other reason than that Obama is the first serious candidate in probably decades to visit the state (in some capacity other than traveling between Maryland and Pennsylvania or New Jersey).
