Piara Khabra dies

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Politics in Ealing is dominated by racial/ethnic voting and so on (not just this end of the borough either; it's hard not to notice that the one Acton ward in which Labour's vote didn't slump badly in in 2006 has a large, and in parts quite established now, Polish community) and nothing like an accurate prediction can be made until we find out who the candidates are. I'm assuming that Labour will run a Sikh and that the Tory candidate will be White, but other than that?

As the article says, Labour will be choosing from an all-woman shortlist. I don't know how much that might affect voting among more conservative Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims, but it could.

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Is a new ealing seat being created at the east end of the constituency where most of the white voters are? If that's the case, a non-Labour MP elected in the by-election (LD or Tory) would probably choose to run there.

As for winners, I could see the LDs squeezing the Tory vote down and winning the seat with a strong candidate and campaign, but I can't see the reverse happening. The Tories just aren't very good at by-elections, and at least as many LD voters prefer Labour as prefer the Tories. I would say the odds are probably about 70% Labour hold, 28% LD gain, 2% Conservative gain.

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Is a new ealing seat being created at the east end of the constituency where most of the white voters are?

Ealing moves back up from 2.6 to 3 constituencies, meaning that the (eastern) Acton seat moves somewhat westward.

Interesting. Ealing, Acton and Shepherd's Bush (which will be dropping Shepherd's Bush and adding the east end of Ealing Southall to become Ealing Central and Acton) is another seat that had a large Labour-to-LD swing in 2005 with the LDs and Tories nearly even (the Tories lead the LDs marginally in that seat, though). The new seat would actually probably be quite LD-friendly. Anyone have ward-by-ward results for both constituencies in 2005?

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RESPECT will be running a candidate in the by-election.

http://www.respectcoalition.org/?ite=1474

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A Lit candidacy could hurt the Lib Dems, but, if the Lib Dems run a white candidate, they might be able to squeeze the affluent white Tory vote down while the Tories peel off Asian voters from Labour. IMO, that's really where the Lib Dems should be focusing their attention, on courting the Tory voters in the constituency, because it's unlikely that they'll be able to make serious inroads into the Asian vote (yet the white vote does make up enough to win).

It's also a good idea because, no matter whether the Lib Dems win the seat or not, they'll only be able to hold next time if their candidate runs in the new Ealing Centre and Acton seat, which will only contain the affluent white parts of this seat.