Manitoba 2007

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Likely a come-from-behind victory for the NDP. They've been back in the polls for a while, but Manitoba still isn't too keen on a PC government, and Manitobans have realized that the PCs are still the only credible alternative to the NDP. McFadyen is a joke, too. He's been in politics for a barely over a year (since December 2005) with his only prior experience in curling yet the PCs made him Opposition Leader with hopes of winning on his "fame" rather than their policies.

I predict very similar results to 1999.

NDP: 42%, 31 seats
PC: 39%, 23 seats
Liberal: 15%, 3 seats
Green: 3%, 0 seats
Other: 1%, 0 seats

NDP majority, somewhat reduced from 2003.

Any thoughts of Denis Rocan's ability to hold Carman as an NDP-supported Independent instead of a PC? Carman is a pretty safe PC riding, but Rocan probably has a large personal vote. I am skeptical and have his seat going back to the PCs, but maybe he could do it.

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Likely a come-from-behind victory for the NDP. They've been back in the polls for a while, but Manitoba still isn't too keen on a PC government, and Manitobans have realized that the PCs are still the only credible alternative to the NDP. McFadyen is a joke, too. He's been in politics for a barely over a year (since December 2005) with his only prior experience in curling yet the PCs made him Opposition Leader with hopes of winning on his "fame" rather than their policies.

I predict very similar results to 1999.

NDP: 42%, 31 seats
PC: 39%, 23 seats
Liberal: 15%, 3 seats
Green: 3%, 0 seats
Other: 1%, 0 seats

NDP majority.

Any thoughts of Denis Rocan's ability to hold Carman as an NDP-supported Independent instead of a PC? Carman is a pretty safe PC riding, but Rocan probably has a large personal vote. I personally am skeptical.

There were only a few close ridings last time that the NDP won, so it will be an uphill battle for the tories to begin with.

BTW, I wouldn't call winning a World Junior Curling championship "famous". I know a lot about curling, and I can say I hadn't heard of him until I realized he was their leader. He does have political experience as a political advisor and is the nephew of a former cabinet minister.

That's why I put "fame" in quotation marks, although I imagine he's more well-known in Manitoba than Ontario.

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Good to hear that the NDP is keeping the Tories at bay. Also, the PCs apparently failed to even field a candidate in Flin Flon. Admittedly, it wasn't likely to change hands, but it's rather humiliating for the PCs that the Liberals are running a full slate and they are not.

It'll be interesting to see if the Greens do as well or better in Wolseley as they did last time.

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Angus Reid poll very nice to see
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.05.19%20Manitoba%20Election.pdf

NDP 49%
Cons 37%
Libs 9%
Greens 5%

Doer approved by 63%

That would be pretty much a rerun of 2003 with the Liberals losing both of their seats, one to the NDP and one (possibly) to the PCs. On those numbers, the Greens would win Wolseley (19.49% in Wolseley last time on 0.96% province-wide), but they're only running candidates in about 1/4 of all ridings, so 5% is highly unlikely.

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I would expect Lamoreux to be more likely to hold on even though he had a much smaller margin last time. The NDP are the incumbent government, so it will be difficult for them to oust Lamoreux, but the PCs may be able to oust Gerrard from a seat they won as recently as 1995.

OTOH, I just looked up Ashley Burner, the PC candidate in River Heights. Sounds like the definition of a paper candidate. Maybe the Liberals will hold both seats.

On an aside, talk about a collection of bad party logos. They don't even attempt to stand for anything (well, except the Greens, but that's just the generic sunflower):

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Do you have a website for results, EarlAW?

Never mind, found it on CBC.

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The NDP currently has an enormous lead, though that will probably subside as the night goes on. Still, if it wasn't clear before, it's clear now that the NDP has won another term.

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First seat called: Steinbach for the tories

With 83% of the vote so far. That's what we call a stronghold.

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There're almost no votes yet in either, though.

The CBC website is having traffic issues. Not so bad as during the Quebec election, but you'd think they'd be able to handle the traffic.

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NDP now leads the PV. Early PC lead was probably due to early reporting from Southern Manitoba.

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Now leading or elected in 36 seats. It will be very impressive if the NDP increases its majority for a second election in a row.

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The NDP is effectively leading in 36 seats; I just looked up Flin Flon for a laugh, and they've got nothing in yet.

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CBC is streaming its coverage on the internet, did any of you try it?

I just turned it on now. The e-mails are silly. One whiner from BC, one blaming the PC loss solely on the Jets promise...

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And the PC talking head is spinning away for McFadyen about "realistic expectations".

NDP now leading in 37 seats. I'm not sure which seat just changed.

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The NDP percentage is rising fast now as Northern Manitoba comes in. Up to 47%.

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Brandon West is down to only 4 polls. Looks like the NDP should hold, but hard to be certain. River East is more up in the air; the NDP still stands a good chance at taking it.

Very, very impressive result for the NDP tonight.

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Why are they interviewing a candidate from a safe riding?

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Why are they interviewing a candidate from a safe riding?

I have no idea. Easier to get?

Perhaps. I love the PC campaigner talking about how amazing Hugh McFadyen is... except he managed to lose seats to an incumbent government.

And the PCs lost Southdale, "not because of their own mistakes, but because the NDP made it a top target" - yet the NDP didn't lose any of their seats to the PCs' targeting.

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The NDP has been called to be elected in La Verendrye and thus won 36 seats, and increase of at least one. Brandon West and River East still too close.

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I seem to recall the Liberal platform being described as "overly optimistic", not "the best", but I guess Gerrard is allowed some positive spin.

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Mitchelson is pulling away in River East. Maybe not close enough to call, but probably PC.

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Only one poll left in Brandon West. The PCs would need a 78-vote lead to take seat (assuming they'd still be ahead after the mandatory recount).

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Heh, the Greens still finished 2nd in Wolseley

I saw. Good for them to get 12% In Wolseley despite their internal troubles. In fact, they increased their percentage of the vote provincewide by a hair, though admittedly they ran one more candidate than last time.

Still, the Manitoba Greens strike me as more hippie and less good sense than the national Greens.

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With only one poll to go, too, and a 14-vote margin. That one certainly is a squeaker. It'd be really depressing for the PCs to lose a second long-time incumbent.

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The Tories have won Brandon West as a consolation prize.