French Presidential Election; Results Thread (1st round)

[Verily]

If I´m not completely wrong (someone plz correct me if so) the combined vote for the Right Candidates is 45% and for the Left 37% and for the Centrist Bayrou its 18%. Right ?

Yes, though many of Le Pen's voters are more likely to sit out the second round than vote for Sarkozy.

[Verily]

Royal apparently won Martinique - an impressive showing for a PS candidate in one of the overseas departments!

[Verily]

De Villiers managed to push Le Pen into fifth in the Vendee.

[Verily]

Besancenot did the same in Martinique... of course Le Pen got just 2.1% of the vote there.
Bové breaks 5% in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon!

What's 5% in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, 2 votes?

[Verily]

Sarkozy won a wide victory in Haut-Rhin, 16% over Bayrou. Royal barely outpolled Le Pen there!

[Verily]

Sarkozy won a wide victory in Haut-Rhin, 16% over Bayrou. Royal barely outpolled Le Pen there!

Wait, Le Pen came fourth in part of Alsace?!!

Yes, Le Pen did poorly everywhere, even his heartland. 14.07% in Haut-Rhin, behind Royal at 17.19%, Bayrou at 20.04%, and Sarkozy at 36.12%.

[Verily]

Royal wins La Reunion by a wide margin. Bayrou did surprisingly well there, too.

[Verily]

Deux-Sevres to Royal. Le Pen barely scraped 5% and fourth. (De Villiers was reasonably strong in this area neighboring the Vendee.)

[Verily]

Doubs -> Sarkozy.

[Verily]

Charente for Royal.

[Verily]

Manche to Sarkozy

That's a little like "Bush carries Utah"

Actually, Sarkozy did much better in Haut-Rhin.

Cotes-d'Armor for Royal.

[Verily]

Charente-Maritime to Sarkozy.

[Verily]

Landes to Royal.

[Verily]

Le Pen 4th in Moselle

Probably will be in Bas-Rhin, also. A dreadful performance by the FN

[Verily]

Darn, you beat me. That one's a surprise.

Seine-et-Marne to Sarkozy. That's the biggest department yet.

[Verily]

Darn, you beat me. That one's a surprise.

Why? Do they ususally vote UMP there? I've always liked Bretagne (Brittany). It was also the only major region of France to vote Yes on the Constitution last year.

They must really hate Le Pen there, look at Le Pen's result in Finistere: (6.5%)! He almost got beaten by Besancenot (5%).

It's not a UMP stronghold by any means, but it's definitely mildly right-wing.

[Verily]

Alas, Le Pen has managed a third-place finish in Pas-de-Calais, and a narrow (by 13 votes) one in Pyrenees-Orientales.

[Verily]

Is this accurate?:

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I thought there's a runoff no matter how close the top 2 candidates are.

So if Candidate A was at 45% and runner-up B is at 25%, they would still have a runoff, right? It has to be over 50% to win.

Yes, CNN just doesn't know what they're talking about. That's pretty much what happened in 1969.

[Verily]

Oh, and the polls OVERESTIMATED Le Pen? Can you believe that? The 20-4-07 IPSOS poll gave him 13.50%, he got around 11%.

I'm guessing that the high turnout consisted entirely of people voting against Le Pen (no matter who they actually voted for), thus his low numbers.

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Because the left was more satisfied with Royal than Jospin (and generally afraid of another 2002), and the right was more satisfied with Sarkozy than Chirac.

[Verily]

I was comparing the final predictions of 12 posters, and found the following accuracy ranking (using BBC numbers).

Tied for first place, Democratic Hawk, Keystone Phil and yours truly.

Tied for fourth, Kireev and Tobias Beecher.

Sixth was Harry Haller.

Seventh was Sarkozy.

Eighth was Sam Spade.

Ninth was Gustaf

Tied for tenth were Gully Foyle and Lewis Trondheim

Twelveth was Verily.

Since his last prediction post actually contained two seperate predictions, the latter of which was a range, I omitted Umengus from the list.

Now, both Sarkozy and Keystone Phil were very close in predicting Sarkozy's percentage.

Democratic Hawk was extremely close in predicting Royal's percentage.

Harry Haller had the best prediction for Bayrou.

I had the closest prediction for Le Pen.

Yay for last! As my prediction was less a prediction and more of a fit of optimism, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

[Verily]

Le Figaro is reporting this new poll by Sofres about the run-off:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-sondage/20070424.WWW000000442_sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html

This is somewhat good news for Royal
According to this, Sarkozy would get 51% and Royal 49%.
46% of Bayrou's voters said they would vote for Royal; only 25% for Sarkozy!!! and 29% didn't say.
62% of Le Pen voters would support Sarkozy and 16% Royal.
However, 72% of the people think Sarkozy is going to win at the end.

On another note, apparently Royal has offered Bayrou that she would name some UDF ministers if he supports her. Just as it was natural to predict, she's trying to move to the center now.

Interesting. The Left Radical Party (which, despite its name, is neither left nor radical) is very close politically to Bayrou's UDF and is a current member of the United Left, so it's certainly ideologically possible. Would Bayrou be willing to work with the Communists and the hopelessly hippy Verts, however?

[Verily]

Le Figaro is reporting this new poll by Sofres about the run-off:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-sondage/20070424.WWW000000442_sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html

This is somewhat good news for Royal
According to this, Sarkozy would get 51% and Royal 49%.
46% of Bayrou's voters said they would vote for Royal; only 25% for Sarkozy!!! and 29% didn't say.
62% of Le Pen voters would support Sarkozy and 16% Royal.
However, 72% of the people think Sarkozy is going to win at the end.

On another note, apparently Royal has offered Bayrou that she would name some UDF ministers if he supports her. Just as it was natural to predict, she's trying to move to the center now.

Yahyahyah... So what? An IPSOS poll from the 25th gives Sarkozy 53.5 and Royal 46.5. No reason to get amazed or to start pissing in your pants because of one poll.

Don't count your chickens yet. The newest poll from TNS-Sofres shows Sarkozy 51, Royal 49.