In Massachusetts, GOP Sees Vulernable Kerry

[Verily]

If the GOP narrowly loses Virginia and barely holds on to Tennessee, how in God's name do they get the idea that they could actually make it competitive in Massachusetts of all places?! 

Good question. The GOP is all but extinct in Massachusetts. It's not even like the South or Utah, where Democrats are few but at least represented. The Republicans hold a scant 19 of 160 seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 5 of 40 in the Massachusetts Senate and are likely to lose more as incumbents retire. Republicans hold no House seats in Massachusetts, haven't held one since 1996, and contested only three of the ten seats in 2006, of which their best result was 29.4%. (Five Democrats ran unopposed, one against the Working Families Party and one against the Socialist Workers Party.) Having now lost the governorship, the Massachusetts Republican Party is completely and utterly dead.

[Verily]

Go ahead, waste your money idiots.

Kerry is safe in the primary too. His approval rating among Democrats is 66%.

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   
 

Read the below. Unlike Virginia for the Democrats, there is no credible Republican Party in all of Massachusetts.

The GOP is all but extinct in Massachusetts. It's not even like the South or Utah, where Democrats are few but at least represented. The Republicans hold a scant 19 of 160 seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 5 of 40 in the Massachusetts Senate and are likely to lose more as incumbents retire. Republicans hold no House seats in Massachusetts, haven't held one since 1996, and contested only three of the ten seats in 2006, of which their best result was 29.4%. (Five Democrats ran unopposed, one against the Working Families Party and one against the Socialist Workers Party.) Having now lost the governorship, the Massachusetts Republican Party is completely and utterly dead.

Compare:

Virginia
US House Delegation
8 Republicans
3 Democrats

House of Delegates
57 Republicans
40 Democrats
3 Independents

Senate
23 Republicans
17 Democrats

Massachusetts
US House Delegation
10 Democrats

House of Representatives
141 Democrats
19 Republicans

Senate
35 Democrats
5 Republicans

[Verily]

Go ahead, waste your money idiots.

Kerry is safe in the primary too. His approval rating among Democrats is 66%.

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   
 

Read the below. Unlike Virginia for the Democrats, there is no credible Republican Party in all of Massachusetts.

The GOP is all but extinct in Massachusetts. It's not even like the South or Utah, where Democrats are few but at least represented. The Republicans hold a scant 19 of 160 seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 5 of 40 in the Massachusetts Senate and are likely to lose more as incumbents retire. Republicans hold no House seats in Massachusetts, haven't held one since 1996, and contested only three of the ten seats in 2006, of which their best result was 29.4%. (Five Democrats ran unopposed, one against the Working Families Party and one against the Socialist Workers Party.) Having now lost the governorship, the Massachusetts Republican Party is completely and utterly dead.

Compare:

Virginia
US House Delegation
8 Republicans
3 Democrats

House of Delegates
57 Republicans
40 Democrats
3 Independents

Senate
23 Republicans
17 Democrats

Massachusetts
US House Delegation
10 Democrats

House of Representatives
141 Democrats
19 Republicans

Senate
35 Democrats
5 Republicans

This doesn't mean an upset can't happen.

If I told you in January 2005 that Orrin Hatch was going down in defeat in 2006, except that Utah was even more Republican than it is now (we can do that comparison, too; the Democrats are in better shape in Utah than the Republicans are in Mass.), you would laugh in my face.

[Verily]

The very idea that some Republicans think they have a chance of beating John Kerry in Massachusetts in a presidential election year amuses me.

Kerry has $13 million, an unparalleled e-mail list from '04, and he's the incumbent Democrat in the most liberal state in the country. Nuff said.

Could Cellucci or Weld beat Kerry?

Definitely not. It's worth noting that Weld lost the 1996 Senate election (to Kerry) by 7% when he was the sitting governor.

[Verily]

It may seem impractical to worry about state house seats in a legislature that is so overwhelmingly Democratic, but it never hurts to have a farm team that could eventually produce at least one Congressional seat from the state.

Actually, it's very practical, and you've hit on an important point. Part of the reason the Massachusetts Republican Party is in such a sorry state is because it has no pool of possible candidates. Massachusetts is probably so far gone that a recovery is all but impossible in the short term (as in, within 20 years), but the Republicans need to be more wary of such problems in other New England states as well, New Hampshire, Vermont and Connecticut in particular. (The Rhode Island Republican Party is only slightly more alive than the Massachusetts Republican Party, and only by virtue of still holding the governorship.)

Edit: New England State Legislatures:

Maine
Lower:
89 D
60 R
2 I

Upper:
18 D
17 R

New Hampshire
Lower:
239 D
161 R

Upper:
14 D
10 R

Vermont
Lower:
93 D
49 R
6 Vermont Progressive
2 I

Upper:
23 D
7 R

Massachusetts
Lower:
141 D
19 R

Upper:
35 D
5 R

Rhode Island
Lower:
60 D
15 R

Upper:
33 D
5 R

Connecticut
Lower:
107 D
44 R

Upper:
24 D
12 R