If Kerry decides not to run, which Democrat becomes Senator?
The conventional wisdom appears to be Ed Markey.
Markey is the most likely. Meehan and Frank are also possible.
Interesting to note that George Allen actually still has a positive net approval rating (+1) even now that he has lost reelection.
Also, looking at the tracking graph for, for example, Jim Talent shows us that Talent had above a 50% approval rating for the entire campaign save one poll in May 2006 but still lost. Losing reelection plunged him to net -17. Anyone with an approval ratng less than 60% can be vulnerable in an election nearly two years in the future.