New Tradesports rankings

[Verily]

I'd also suggest buying Romney, lightly. He'll surge a bit to 15 or 20 or so if he wins California and/or Georgia, which seems reasonably possible.

[Verily]

And Clinton is too low for Massachusetts and Delaware. Buy.

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Sell Obama/buy Clinton. As if that advice was needed.

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Intrade numbers are now exactly tied at 50.0-50.0 on the Democratic side. Dem brokered convention is up to 28.9.

[Verily]

I still don't understand how a brokered convention is supposed to happen, unless "the nominee is decided by the superdelegates" counts as a brokered convention.  But if a brokered convention means that the nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot, it seems virtually impossible, since (presumably) every delegate at the convention (pledged or unpledged) will vote for either Clinton or Obama, one of them has to win a majority.....unless they actually think that the 25 or so Edwards delegates are going to have to break the deadlock.

They may be considering that such close numbers mean, at the urging of superdelegates and other party leaders, either Clinton or Obama, or perhaps both, will step aside for a compromise candidate endorsed by the standing-aside candidate's delegates and most of the superdelegates. (Say, for example, the two are tied, but Obama stands aside in favor of Al Gore, and the superdelegates flock from Clinton to Gore. Gore's not a likely choice for this at all, but he's a good example.)

[Verily]

I still don't understand how a brokered convention is supposed to happen, unless "the nominee is decided by the superdelegates" counts as a brokered convention.  But if a brokered convention means that the nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot, it seems virtually impossible, since (presumably) every delegate at the convention (pledged or unpledged) will vote for either Clinton or Obama, one of them has to win a majority.....unless they actually think that the 25 or so Edwards delegates are going to have to break the deadlock.

They may be considering that such close numbers mean, at the urging of superdelegates and other party leaders, either Clinton or Obama, or perhaps both, will step aside for a compromise candidate endorsed by the standing-aside candidate's delegates and most of the superdelegates. (Say, for example, the two are tied, but Obama stands aside in favor of Al Gore, and the superdelegates flock from Clinton to Gore. Gore's not a likely choice for this at all, but he's a good example.)

According to Intrade a brokered convention is defined as follows.

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I would be very surprised if the unpledged superdelegates allowed it to go to multiple ballots. I would think that they would in effect broker the outcome before the first ballot. In that case there would not be a "brokered" convention.

I didn't say anything about a bet for the convention being brokered; I don't expect it. I do agree that such brokering would happen before balloting, probably before the convention.

[Verily]

Big surge for Gore, as Intraders ponder the "Verily scenario":

Dem. nomination:

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0
Gore 3.5

winning individual:

McCain 36.0
Obama 34.1
Clinton 27.8
Gore 2.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.5

Nice to know that my tips move markets

Even if it were to happen, I don't expect that Gore would be the choice. But perhaps.

[Verily]

Big surge for Gore, as Intraders ponder the "Verily scenario":

Dem. nomination:

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0
Gore 3.5

winning individual:

McCain 36.0
Obama 34.1
Clinton 27.8
Gore 2.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.5

Nice to know that my tips move markets

Even if it were to happen, I don't expect that Gore would be the choice. But perhaps.

Who else? Edwards? (Actually he would be a strong possibility especially if the plan is put into motion by Obama to create an Edwards/Obama ticket.)

I have no idea, actually. Which is part of why I am not sold on the idea yet. Gore would be the obvious choice were he also not obviously undesirous of reentering politics.

[Verily]

What exactly are the odds that Hillary cries again on March 3 ?

100%

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Buy some Clinton tonight in case she wins Maine. Then you can sell it before the 12th, and buy it back afterwards.

Even if she loses Maine, she'll recover somewhat later on in the run-up to March 4.

[Verily]

Short Gore for easy money.

And Clinton, too, Short her down to 0.1.

[Verily]

Clinton is still dropping in winning individual, possibly down to her lowest level since September 2006:

Obama 48.1
McCain 32.7
Clinton 17.3

Clinton's actually probably still overvalued on this market. So is Obama. McCain should be higher.

[Verily]

LOL, Giuliani higher than Huckabee and Paul.

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You sometimes get wacky results with fringe candidates because the liquidity in the market is so low (sometimes the last trade on the Presidential contract for a minor candidate and the nomination trade for a candidate can be days apart) . Given that both Hillary and Obama contracts are extremely liquid, this isn't an issue. In any case I'm not a fan of using Intrade as a good measure, but I just thought it would be interesting.

The problem is not illiquidity; there has actually been quite a bit of trading on Gore recently. The problem is transaction cost. It isn't worth it to me to short Gore to win the general while buying him to win the nomination because the transaction cost is higher than any profit I would make. The same is true of the Clinton-Obama discrepancy.

[Verily]

Republican nomination
McCain 95.0
Giuliani 1.7
Paul 1.5
Romney 1.1
Rice 0.7
Huckabee 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2

Um, why is McCain still below 100.0? Do some assume that he could die of old age prior to the convention or what?

Exactly. They can't close the market until he actually has won the nomination at the RNC. There could be some enormous scandal which would cause McCain to plunge in the GE match-ups and make him withdraw his candidacy. In that case, Romney, Giuliani, etc. would jump back in for the last few primaries, and one of them would win the nomination after a lot of wrangling at the convention.