The Gay Empire State

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Does anyone think it's going to pass?

Maybe.  It depends on getting Republicans to support it, and there are 6 or so Republicans who might do so.  But none wants to be the deciding vote - so it may be all or none.  Plus, the Conservative Party has said they won't back anyone who votes for gay marriage in the next election.

I don't think the odds are good, but we'll see.

As long as there is more than one Republican, none of them are the deciding vote--and there has to be more than one. But I agree that they will need at least four Republicans even though technically only three more votes are needed.

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Not quite true. A bunch of Republican state legislators voted in favor of same-sex marriage in Vermont (of course).

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Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

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Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

Alesi ain't a random Upstate Republican, fwiw.

Not sure what else you would consider him, although he does represent a ~60% Obama seat IIRC.

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Despite language in the bill already that has religious protections as well as state law, the religious protection argument is the main excuse used on why no commitment to bring the bill up for a vote has been made, well it appears that additional religious protections have been added.

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http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/24/albany-leaders-reach-consensus-on-religious-exemptions-for-marriage-measure/?hp#


Of course we were basically down this road before, so lets see if a vote is actually held or if Skelos comes up with another excuse.

In the end, all the "new religious protections" they added was a nonseverability clause, which strikes me more as vindictive nastiness than religious protections.

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Good for New York. It appears this won't have to be decided by the voters (though a ban referendum would likely fail in NY).

Does anyone have a map of the vote (or breakdown by Obama performance)?

I don't have either of these exactly, but:

All of Long Island (non-NYC) is GOP/No.

NYC is all Dem except two GOP districts, one in south Brooklyn and the other on Staten Island. All voted on party lines except Rubén Diaz who is the only Dem No and represents an obviously extremely Obama district in the South Bronx.

The three innermost north suburban districts are Dem, one in Rockland and two in Westchester, all Yes.

Upstate there are just three Dems, one in each of Albany, Syracuse & Buffalo, all Yes. Of the remaining Republicans, the four Yes votes are: a Hudson Valley district; a district east of Albany (sort of the old Gillibrand territory); a suburban Rochester district; and a district in Buffalo that only went GOP due to the incumbent's major corruption problems.

Pretty sure Alesi represents a big chunk of Rochester proper as well. Not as much as Robach does, though (not sure how Robach wins reelection; his seat has to be >60% Obama).