Canada 2011 Official Thread

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What happened to the NDP ? They were at 20% not so far ago...

The NDP is perfectly capable of simultaneously polling at 16% and 20%. However, they have been polling down on their 2008 numbers pretty much constantly for the past couple of years with only the occasional poll putting them above 18%.

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Nanos today (complete with equal opportunity hack labels opposite of what you're used to seeing on this website):

Conservatives	40.7%	-0.6
LIEberals	29.4%	-0.9
Clueless Socialists	16.9%	+0.9
Separatists	8.0%	-0.5
Eco Weenies	4.0%	+0.3

   


Given sample sizes, it could just be noise but it is worth keeping an eye upon.

You don't even have to alter the name of the Conservatives for it to sum them up: CONservatives.

They've been called PurgaTories in shorthand hack descriptions in the past, among other things.  I figured this thread needed some equal opportunity hackery.

A few polls are showing a pretty steep Bloq decline.

I wouldn't trust national polls or polling on the Bloc. Plus, I don't see a reason for them to be suddenly dropping off. Would be interested if Leger or CROP does a poll of just Quebec, though.

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Nanos today, big swing to the NDP from all others

Conservative	39.1%	-0.7
Liberal	28.4%	-1.8
NDP	19.8%	+2.5
BQ	7.7%	-0.9
Green	3.9%	+0.8

Quebec

Conservative	16.6%	+1.2
Liberal	20.9%	-0.1
NDP	25.4%	+2.4
BQ	32.5%	-3.7
Green	1.3%	+0.3

Potential for some very bizarre results if that played out in Quebec.

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Does the Bloc differ much from its British counterparts, Plaid and the SNP?

Well the SNP and Plaid are very different, so what do you think?

The Bloc is very different though; remember that separatist politics in Quebec started at provincial level through the PQ and that the BQ and PQ remain separate parties (though with extremely close informal ties, of course). While both the SNP and Plaid now view elections to devolved bodies as being more important, it doesn't change the fact that they were shaped by their parliamentary representatives and by political activism outside electoral politics. So you have that massive difference in terms of political culture.

Language is the elephant in the room...

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Gatineau
NDP: 33%
BQ: 29%
Libs: 24%
Cons: 11%
Greens: 3%

Is that it? That's rather discouraging. We should be at 50% in Gatineau if the provincial polls are to be believed.

Well, the Sherbrooke poll way overstates the Bloc (has them on 59% when they barely passed 50% last time, and Liberals and Conservatives also way down without much gain for the NDP). The riding polls may systematically overestimate the Bloc (possible if they have trouble polling Anglophones, although there aren't many in Sherbrooke), or they may just suck, which is more likely.

Wouldn't take it seriously.

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NDP up big again in Nanos, this time more from the Conservatives, though. NDP is at 26% in Quebec, behind the Bloc at 31% (18% Lib, 16% Con).

Conservative	37.8%	-1.2
Liberal	26.1%	-0.6
NDP	23.7%	+1.6
BQ	7.4%	-0.1
Green	3.5%	+0.1

Interestingly, despite all of this, the NDP has not once polled at its 2008 level in Ontario in April (in Nanos). Currently at 16.5%, down from 18.2% in 2008.

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Do the Tories have anything to say about the other parties besides the "they're seperatist enablers" nonsense? And does this actually play well out West or in Ontario?

Well, they call the Liberals bumbling idiots. But so does everyone else, and it's true.

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If the NDP does better, does that also mean the bar for the conservatives to win a majority winds up being lower (say 37-38%) ?

No. The only real difference in the polling at the moment from 2008 is in Quebec (where it is radically different). There aren't more than a handful of seats in Quebec where NDP "spoilers" could make any difference, but the Conservatives are polling down in Quebec on 2008, so gains there seem unlikely or limited.

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Nanos has a new poll today that shows the NDP support leveling off, dropping marginally. They inched up further in Quebec (and Ontario), though.

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Which actually brings me to what I think the NDP leadership should be considering... What if they really do win 15+ seats in Quebec?

For the NDP, that would be a sea-change in their caucus, and one that might not be easy for the party membership to deal with. After all, the party is traditionally small, and most MPs for the NDP get a fair amount of responsibility and power after a short time in office. I can see tensions arising between a new Quebec branch of the NDP (most of whom did not seriously expect to win office before this past week) and the rest of the party over internal matters as current MPs are reluctant to surrender power within the party to give the Quebec caucus a say in matters. Additionally, the NDP is mostly a monolingual party (with a couple of exceptions, but fewer than in the other parties)--the transition to having a large Francophone caucus, some of whom may not speak English well, will be another point of tension.

This isn't such a big deal in the other parties because they have larger caucuses outside of Quebec, but the NDP could be looking at having a third or even half of its MPs from Quebec, which creates the potential for real tensions.

Something to think about, anyway. The NDP leadership ought to be preparing not only for a larger caucus but for how to deal with tensions that will inevitably arise between the NDP old guard and Quebec MPs.

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Today's Nanos has the NDP and Conservatives up a bit, Liberals down a bit nationally. They also have the NDP in first in Quebec for the first time in their polling, 30.2% to 27.4% Bloc, 22.0% Lib and 14.1% Con.

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Atlantic.

Apparently there's a slight difference.

No kidding. On that note, has there been any polling in Alberta?

Pollsters usually give a breakdown for "The Prairies", which is Alberta, Sask and Manitoba. They show the Conservatives flat, the NDP up and the Liberals down on 2008, none of the changes all that large, but who knows how accurate that is.

Basically suggests Winnipeg North may flip back to the NDP, NDP will be the main challengers to the Conservatives in Desnethe (but hard to say whether they have any serious shot), Liberals might lose Wascana, NDP will probably hold Edmonton Strathcona, and the NDP may stand a chance at Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Not many interesting races out there.

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Wascana going for the Liberals would be a pretty symbolic moment, no? I mean, they'd have no seats left in either SK or AB and probably only a very small amount in MB (too lazy to check where losing Winnipeg N would leave them). I know the prairies never were an historical stronghold for the Liberals, but was there a period where they stood stronger (presumably mostly in MB)?

And what should we expect from PEI? Status quo?

Libs have only one seat left in Manitoba other than their borrowed-time seat in Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South Centre. Which I didn't realize was as marginal as it actually is; only a six-point split between the Cons and Libs. The Prairies could be a Liberal-free zone come May.

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New EKOS poll... Con 33.7, NDP 28.0, Lib 23.7, Greenies 7.2, BQ 6.2

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Looks too good to be true, but I live in hope.

Quebec (and a fairly respectable sample size, around 700)

NDP: 39
Bloc: 25
Con: 15
Lib: 13

lolBloc

Their big difference w/ Nanos (other than scale of the NDP lead in Quebec) seems to be that EKOS is showing an NDP surge in Ontario while Nanos is not. (EKOS has the NDP at 23% in Ontario and gaining; Nanos has them at 17% and flat.) Not sure what to make of that.

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There are so many issues with Teddy's map, I don't know where to start.

Vaudreuil-Soulanges voting Tory?
Saskatoon-Humboldt voting NDP before Rosetown-Biggar?
The Liberals picking up Churchill River?

The first is an error, the second two are correct on the math

Hmmm?

Saskatoon-Humboldt, 2008: CON: 53.8; NDP: 27.8
Saskatoon-Rosetown, 2008: CON: 45.4; NDP: 44.5

I fail to see how "the math" would have Humboldt fall first.

Same for Desnethe. 2008: CON: 46.7; LIB: 30.3

Are you really predicting a big swing from the Conservatives to the Liberals?

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Wouldn't it be stupid for them to get rid of FPTP at a time where it would work in their favour if they are to replace the Liberals as the major leftwing party and could ultimately result in a NDP Majority government within a very reasonable amount of time? Yes, I'm being overtly optimistic here.

It would, tactically. The NDP is not really disadvantaged by FPTP except insofar as FPTP hurts smaller parties. Unlike the Lib Dems, the NDP is solidly on the left and thus not nearly as evenly distributed across the country. The Lib Dems could win more votes than Labour and still end up far back in seats, but the NDP would easily pass the Liberals in seats if they won more votes.

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Yeah... even if Pankiw pulled 20% straight from the Conservatives, the same percentage he got as an independent in 2004, when he was still relevant and somewhat sane, the Conservatives would win.

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Does anyone think the NDP has a shot at Oshawa? Always seems to be a squeaker with the incumbent, if some of the (decaying) Liberal vote there went to the NDP candidate... maybe?

Oshawa has been inching further and further away from the NDP each year. I doubt they can win it. Demographic trends are against them (fewer union workers as the jobs disappear, more exurban Toronto commuters).

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Everyone take a very deep breath - latest Angus Reid poll:

Conservatives 35%
NDP 30% (!!!)
Liberals 22%

This is REAL!

Aren't Angus Reid polls Internet polls?  And when was this poll taken?  I wouldn't trust any poll taken over the holiday weekend.

Angus Reid is... odd. They have generally overstated the Conservatives and NDP while understating the Liberals compared to other pollsters. However, this meant that, when all pollsters underestimated the Conservatives and overestimated the Liberals in 2008,* Angus Reid was the best pollster. They also did very well in the 2009 elections in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and the 2008 election in Quebec. I think they're fairly reliable.


*Not by much, but the polling consensus at the time pointed to a result like 2006 while the Conservatives ended up doing somewhat better than 2006 and the Liberals worse.

Also, lol: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2011/04/dumont-to-duceppe-there-is-life-after-politics.html

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In other news, a riding poll shows Elizabeth May winning Saanich-Gulf Islands, 45-38.

No real surprise. Lunn has been on borrowed time for ages and ages. The left never had a candidate with enough stature to unite behind. Whatever you may think of May, she has that stature. (Also, the Greens have been spending all of their money and effort on this riding, basically ignoring the rest of Canada, a big contrast from 2008.)

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Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: BQ 35, Con 29, NDP 23, Lib 11, Green 3
Jonquière-Alma: Con 36, NDP 30, BQ 26, Lib 5, Green 3
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Con 54, BQ 28, NDP 11, Lib 5, Green 2

All by Segma Rechereche

Richmond-Arthabaska: BQ 47, Con 21, NDP 20, Lib 6, Green 6

By 'Cara Telecom'

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Can anyone spot a pattern there? Obviously there's increased NDP support in all, but the scale is totally different and so is all else...

NDP's potential for vote gains in eastern Quebec was always limited. Like Earl said, Montreal would be a lot more interesting. I could see something like the NDP unseating Duceppe with over 50% of the vote in Laurier while failing to win any seat in eastern Quebec (except maybe the Quebec riding or Jonquiere-Alma).

Of course, it may also be an indication that this is a bubble and will not be borne out in the results...

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Anyone have a link to information about the Angus-Reid poll? It's not on their website that I can see, and none of the mainstream news outlets are going bonkers over the NDP polling at 30%.

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I'm assuming that NDP number in the Atlantic provinces is completely meaningless.

NDP got not far short of that number in 2008, so it wouldn't be unrealistic (2008 was LIB 35.0; CON 29.6; NDP 26.0). In good part due to running up ridiculous margins in St. John's East and Sackville-Eastern Shore, but that will happen again. Cons are up just as much as the NDP in the Atlantic if Angus-Reid is right.

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And... Nanos puts the NDP in second. On a big swing, too. I think that makes every significant pollster showing the NDP in second. (Anyone know what happened to Harris-Decima?)

CON: 37.8 (-1.4)
NDP: 27.8 (+4.2)
LIB: 22.9 (-2.7)
BQ: 5.8 (-0.7)
GRN: 4.7 (+1.1)

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Quebec:

NDP: 36.5 (+6.3)
BQ: 24.2 (-3.2)
LIB: 20.3 (-1.9)
CON: 13.6 (-0.5)
GRN: 2.0 (-0.3)