US House Redistricting: New York

[Verily]

OK trying to eliminate Weiner's district I have to ask: What is this Middle Village like? Is it one of those Italian olds type places?

It is kind of a green paradise among the asphalt:)  It is probably one of the least dense neighborhoods in the city.  A lot of parks and cemetaries so it is spread out and a lot of trees. The tornado/macroburst last September hit this neighborhood hard and that is how I came to know  about it more. It is a white neighborhood for the most part.  Bloomberg is not cared for here at all recently.  It is definitely a lot more conservative than the city at large.

I don't know that Middle Village is particularly lacking in density if you subtract the cemeteries (but leave in Juniper Valley Park since a lot of neighborhoods have parks). It's definitely denser than Forest Hills, for example. (A quick glance at Google Earth is all you need to see that.)

The real reason it is relatively conservative is, as always, demographics. Lots of middle class Italians, Irish, etc. in Middle Village as well as in neighboring Maspeth and Glendale, which are all fairly conservative.

[Verily]

BTW I'm just tweaking my final map now, but why was there such controversy over shoring up Hochul?

Because Republicans will have to agree to whatever is done to the district. Democrats do not have full control of the process here.

Republicans also do not, and the Democrats will just block any plan that eliminates two Democrats (as any plan that eliminates/fails to shore up Hochul would pretty much have to do). Failing to shore up Hochul (without clearly eliminating some other upstate Republican as well, which isn't going to happen without shoring up Hochul) isn't "bipartisan" or "partisan-neutral", it's a Republican plan.

[Verily]

I would shoot that Upper Manhattan district into Riverdale (NW Bronx) before combining Rangel and Velasquez. I also don't like the way you split up the Hispanic vote around Corona--surely it would be neater and more reasonable to put all of Forest Hills in the NE Queens seat and all of Corona in the central/NW Queens seat.

As for the idiots arguing about the Hasidic Jewish vote... Sue Kelly would like a word with you on them being reliable Republicans. As a group, they're way too fickle in their voting patterns for any Republican to want them in their district.

[Verily]

I think even the cautious mapmaker would be well-aware that, even if there were anti-black bloc voting in the Democratic primary or general election in SE Queens (which there isn't), the split nature of the surrounding communities means it is a clear the black-preferred candidate would be elected regardless. After all, you're not drawing a 47% black, 46% white sort of seat. You're drawing a 47% black, 21% Hispanic, 17% white, 15% Asian sort of seat--an enormous difference.

[Verily]

1. Splitting the Buffalo metro. No. One district for Buffalo and its immediate suburbs, as well as Niagara Falls, and one district for Buffalo exurbs and the Southern Tier conservatives.

2. Jefferson County only belongs with the far north. Same with Oswego County unless you can pair it with Syracuse. Certainly does not belong with Rochester exurbs and the Southern Tier, which are demographically and historically different (Dutch and German and deeply religious in the Southern Tier v. New England/English moderates in the far north)

3. Albany to Herkimer, WTF? I-90 is not a community of interest. Put Herkimer in the district to the south, along with all of Montgomery County west of Amsterdam. Put more of Rensselaer or Saratoga in the Albany seat.

I'd try to work Steuben and Alleghany, and maybe Chemung, into the district to the north while pushing the Ithaca-Binghamton district further east into Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan Counties. Not sure how well that would work population-wise, but your current Ithaca-Binghamton seat is a mess.

[Verily]

This would be my counterproposal. Not a big fan of the area between Albany and Utica, but something strange has to happen there. Could swap Delaware County for Fulton/Montgomery, I suppose.

[Verily]

I didn't really pay attention to what was going on at the southern edge of Upstate, so what you did probably makes more sense. I didn't finish the map, just the nine upstate districts.

As for partisanship, on this new iteration (below, which I think is something of an improvement):

Buffalo: 62-36 Obama
Rural Buffalo: 45-52 McCain
Rochester: 58-39 Obama
Rural Rochester and Southern Tier: 45-53 McCain
Syracuse: 56-41 Obama
Ithaca-Binghamton-Utica-Oneonta: 53-44 Obama (I think this was 53-45 before)
Far North: 50-47 Obama (I think this was 51-47 before)
Albany etc.: 58-39 Obama
Hudson Valley: 54-44 Obama (I think this was 54-43 before)

[Verily]

I-88, connecting Oneonta to Binghamton, runs through the NW corner of Delaware County. Personally, I prefer preserving transit links to preserving county lines and would put the northwesternmost corner of Delaware County (Sidney) in NY-22. (You could then drop the bit of Herkimer in NY-22 maybe and put that tiny bit of Rensselaer in NY-21 in NY-19--not sure how the populations work out, but something like that.)

NY-22 ends up a truly odd duck. That was my intent, of course; it's a weird fusion of small post-industrial cities (Binghamton, Utica, Rome), college towns (Ithaca, Oneonta, Hamilton, Clinton, Binghamton again) and rural areas. It extends outward to precisely take in all of the college towns in central NY. But they all fit together fairly well in the end.

[Verily]

It's not a tiny part population-wise. And I think it makes perfect sense to draw Troy with Albany.

Whoops, I meant Washington County, not Rensselaer County.