2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Verily]

Herenton, as a big city mayor, really proves the importance of this thing we call an "issue" for upsetting incumbents in primaries.

The GOP disagrees. For them, it's all about OMGZ teh socialsim  obama muslim pelosi kenya.

That's still an "issue" (note the scare quotes). Some of the incumbents who lost were defeated because they were perceived as too close to Obama/the Democrats--even though only delusional crazies would see Bob Inglis that way. (Others, like Cannon, did lose on an issue; in his case, not hating Hispanics enough.)

[Verily]

GA should be rural vs. suburban/urban.  If it's anything else, I'll be surprised.

I would think suburban beats rural any time, and easily, in a GA GOP primary simply because so many in rural areas are still registered Dem. Or is it an open primary?

[Verily]

There's a TV market disparity so far (which I'd expect, since McMahon was heavily advertising in NYC and the others weren't).  But it's too early to tell if it's significant.



There's also a major TV market disparity in the Republican Governor's race, with Griebel (who?) getting slaughtered in the NYC market.

NYC Market=Fairfield County.  Hartford-New Haven=Rest of State

That this is significant seems to be disproved by the CD data, since McMahon is doing equally well in every CD except Simmons'. It just so happens that Simmons' CD is in the Hartford-New Haven market.

[Verily]

Would it be too late for Castle to pull a Charlie Crist?

Delaware has a sore loser law, and Castle can't pull out of the ballot this late. (He could drop out, but he'd still be on the primary ballot, so he'd still be precluded from an independent run.)

[Verily]

With 5% reporting, Lamontagne leads 53-32. Interesting.

Its mostly from Lamontagne's hometown and suburb of that. The two places not are Dixville Notch (went to Bender, none to be weird), and Pittsfield (went to Ayotte by 2).

Candia is not a suburb, unless you think the below map shows a suburb. It is near Manchester, though.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Candia,+NH&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=31.977057,77.607422&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Candia,+Rockingham,+New+Hampshire&ll=43.089451,-71.27655&spn=0.057541,0.151577&z=13&iwloc=A

[Verily]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

ugh, why is he wasting his time?  Does he have any sense?  DOES HE ACTUALLY THINK THAT SPLITTING THE VOTE WITH ANOTHER REPUBLICAN WILL HELP HIS CHANCES, EVEN THOUGH HE DIDN'T HAVE A CHANCE IN THE FIRST PLACE?

ugh

If the Conservative Party won less than 2% of the vote, they'd lose their automatic ballot access and die almost instantly, like what happened to the Liberal Party after 2002. He's trying to save the Conservatives.