Future voting patterns....

[CTguy]

How are you guys making these maps anyways...

And why is Texas no longer a republican state...  

I think in 15 years Florida will be solidly democratic.  Both of those maps look pretty bad for the Republicans though.

[CTguy]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

[CTguy]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

Not in a cultural way, so much as it will become a economic power house.

I don't see Atlanta becoming an economic powerhouse like New York unless some terrorist attack shakes up Wall Street and stocks need to somehow be traded differently.  Otherwise it would be too risky for corporations to be headquartersed in an area outside NY Metro.  

Perhaps the internet could change things somewhat.  Economists talk about hysteresis and how like minded corporations exploit other like minded corporations by being centered around eachother.  This way they can latch onto eachothers business.  If you've ever noticed furniture shops being located around eachother or a bunch of lamp shops in the same area...  your first thought would be why would so many stores that compete with eachother be in the same area...  it's because it's the most cost effective way to conduct business.  The same is true for large corporations...  

If the internet changes that somehow then NY will lose its calling for corporations to centralize in.  But I don't think it's gonna happen, the market is just too structured here and it would take a long time for a shakeup like that.  Of course if we get hit again with another terrorist attack, I won't hold my breath.  After 9/11 everyone said NY was done but it doesn't seem to have impacted NYC at all longterm.

[CTguy]

MS is more likely to gain an EV, not lose on.,

Same is probably true with Connecticut.  Both MS and CT lost in 2000, and will probably not lose in 2010.  Montana is more likely to gain a 2nd DC (just missed out in 2000) than Idaho is to gain a 3rd.  And NH will probably keep its 2nd CD.  Doubling NV from 3 to 6 is also a bit much.  These are more likely the totals in 2020 or 2030.  

I agree that NM and UT will gain a CD in 2010, and the trends in the Northeast and Midwest look pretty accurate.

CT will definitely not lose another seat...  We just barely lost one last time even though our population grew.  And we are still growing slow and steady because of migration from NYC.  So we should be able to maintain what we have unless suddenly all the illegal immigrants in Texas and California get voting rights or something...  in that case every state will lose a vote probably.

[CTguy]

Atlanta wont become the new New York anytime soon.  Creationism is still taught as science in biology classes there.

Not in a cultural way, so much as it will become a economic power house.

I don't see Atlanta becoming an economic powerhouse like New York unless some terrorist attack shakes up Wall Street and stocks need to somehow be traded differently.  Otherwise it would be too risky for corporations to be headquartersed in an area outside NY Metro.  

Perhaps the internet could change things somewhat.  Economists talk about hysteresis and how like minded corporations exploit other like minded corporations by being centered around eachother.  This way they can latch onto eachothers business.  If you've ever noticed furniture shops being located around eachother or a bunch of lamp shops in the same area...  your first thought would be why would so many stores that compete with eachother be in the same area...  it's because it's the most cost effective way to conduct business.  The same is true for large corporations...  

If the internet changes that somehow then NY will lose its calling for corporations to centralize in.  But I don't think it's gonna happen, the market is just too structured here and it would take a long time for a shakeup like that.  Of course if we get hit again with another terrorist attack, I won't hold my breath.  After 9/11 everyone said NY was done but it doesn't seem to have impacted NYC at all longterm.

You bring up some good points, but it has been the evelution of history that centers shift.  I'm not saying that New York will be irrelivant by 2020 by any means, but I think that the moving of Philip Morris from NYC to Richmond is proof of the fact that technology has drastically changed the way that we do business and companies will not be so shy about packing-up and if they see there interests better served else, where.  I think that NYC will start to loose to other cities as time goes on and if the current trend southward continues, then it is likely that Atlanta will benifit the most.

I am still failing to see why it will be Atlanta rather than another metropolitan city such as Las Vegas or Houston.  Why Atlanta specifically.  And is your theory that since Atlanta will remain culturally conservative, Georgia will remain a Republican state like Texas even though it will be dominated by a large metro area the way New York now is?

[CTguy]

I'm not going to be so arrogant as to try to predict future trends in all 50 states...

Basically what will probably happen is:

1. What's left of the old North-South divide will disappear.
2. An East (Democrat)-West (Republican) divide will open up.

Why will the East be democratic and the West Republican.  With the exception of New England, the West Coast seems A LOT more liberal than the East Coast... Or will the parties reverse again and the Republicans will become the party for progressives.

[CTguy]

That's very interesting... and I notice even way back then Vermont was one of the (if not the) most liberal state/s.

[CTguy]

But Bush will probably do better with Mexicans because of his decision to look the other way on immigration problems...

I almost wonder though, if it's not some big scheme to register all the illegals so they know where they are and then ship them all back...  nah...

[CTguy]

*Sighs*

I seriously doubt that Hispanics are as solidly Democrat as is often assumed...
But that's not my point.
Look at the map I posted

N.B
The North-South divide was not very strong in 2000 (Gore won +40% in every SE state), however a East/Inland West/Coastal West divide is clearly visable.
West does not=CA+OR+WA...
Look at Bush's (carefully cultivated) image: a cowboy. That is how he WANTS to be seen...

N.B II
Back in 1900 D did NOT=conservative and R did NOT=liberal.
The Republican Party was conservative then as well(don't be fooled by the Progressive wing...)

N.B III
Vermont is a "small c", rustic, small town conservative state with progressive leanings.
Has been for... ever really

Define a "conservative state with progressive leanings" please.

[CTguy]

I'm too lazy to make a map, but here's my predictions:

The Cuban vote isn't desolidifying, on the contrary, in 2000, Bush got a higher percentage of it than any candidate since Nixon.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-acubapoll21mar21,0,2025102.story?coll=sfla-news-sfla

The Cuban vote is in fact desolidifying if we are talking about future voting patterns...  a majority of Cubans born in the United States plan to vote against Bush this election...  While Bush is mainly popular in the over 65 anti-Castro community that is dying out.  Don't ask me how but I have a lot of connections in the Cuban community of South Florida and I know this group is definitely not going to go for Bush by a wide margin again...  

Also, if we are talking about the cuban community as a whole...  Cubans barely went for Bush last time.  The Cuban community in New Jersey and New York is staunchly democratic...  Lets not forget only half of Cubans live in the Miami metro area... the ones outside of there are not as unified in their voting...  

And like someone said the Elian Gonzalez thing galvanized and unified the Cuban vote last time... if you look at the last few elections before then the Cuban vote even in Florida had been trending dem...  Bush's brother being governor of Florida also probably helped...  If you factor out those two influences and had a controlled environment the vote would look very different...

Besides Cubans are now a minority of the Florida hispanic population so unless they vote as a 90% block the way black voters in the state do, they won't have much impact.

[CTguy]

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.

Not necessarily.

Yes they would be.  99 percent of all elected black politicans that are Dems are lunatics.  The only one I see that isn't is Harold Ford.

WE're talking about a distant future, and it doesn't have to be a black. It could be a Hispanic, or even a Jew, as long as it can be considered an ethnical minority.

Anybody can be an ethnic minority.

As a brown haired blue eyed waspy white person who is also a democrat aren't I an ethnic minority?

[CTguy]

Irish (1/4) German (1/2) and Spanish (1/4)

[CTguy]

Sometimes...  I think there might even be a little french in the german...

though I'm sure most everyone in this country has ancestors that went to war with eachother at one point... heh.