Here's my take on what a light Democratic gerrymander of the state would look like, say in 2026 or if Dems take the legislature and force a mid-decade redistricting.
http://dra-purple.indirect.cc/join/c3300552-ec57-4e69-bb71-9789aeba6d3fBy district:
TX-01: Texarkana, Tyler, rural East Texas - this is more similar to the pre-2004 TX-01, but Gohmert should be the easy favorite in this Trump 72-25 seat (Safe R)
TX-02: Lufkin, Nacogdoches, rural East Texas stretching down to Beaumont and Houston's northern and eastern exurbs. This is again the pre-2004 TX-02, which is today's TX-36, and Babin should easily hold it, as it is Trump 76-21 (Safe R)
TX-03: Plano, Frisco, Carrollton, pretty much the same as old TX-03, except it reaches into Denton County a little. Van Taylor should be fine here, even though it's trending left and is now Trump 50-44 (Likely R)
TX-04: Rockwall, McKinney, Sulphur Springs, Sherman - this is similar to the pre-2004 TX-04 that Ralph Hall used to represent, but more of Collin replaces Tyler/Smith County. This seat is Trump 75-21, and contains Heath, so Ratcliffe should run here. (Safe R)
TX-05: Terrell, Waxahachie, Palestine, Rusk - this is similar to the previous iterations of TX-05, and is entirely outside of Dallas County now. That makes it safer for Gooden, and it is Trump 75-22, so he will likely easily win here. (Safe R)
TX-06: Fort Worth, River Oaks, White Settlement - a D sink in Tarrant County that didn't previously exist before. This seat is Clinton 56-39, so Wright would probably not run here. This seat is a Democratic pickup. Demographically, it could elect a minority (probably Marc Veasey) as its VAP is 43% white, 34% Hispanic, and 20% black. (Safe D)
TX-07: Katy, Cypress, this seat is the western end of Harris County. Fletcher definitely would not win here. It is trending left but is still too red right now, she would probably run somewhere else in the area. Dan Crenshaw could definitely carpetbag and run in this seat and he would probably win, as it is Trump 57-38. It is close to becoming maj-min, but its VAP is 55% white, 26% Hispanic, and 11% black. (Safe R)
TX-08: The Woodlands, Kingwood, Humble, Tomball - essentially the core of Brady's base is preserved here as well as some northern red suburbs of Houston. He would run here as long as he wants, and this seat is Trump 72-24. (Safe R)
TX-09: Beaumont, Port Arthur, Galveston - this seat takes its 1990s form as it sheds Brazoria from its predecessor TX-14, and takes in the southeasternmost extremities of Houston. It goes from being Trump 58-38 to Trump 55-41, and is probably still safe as this area has a lot of WWC voters. That said, someone like Nick Lampson could run here and make a race. (Safe R)
TX-10: the old TX-10 that was a Travis County seat is finally reunited with most of the southern and eastern portions of Austin in this seat. It is Clinton 73-20, so McCaul would not survive. Luckily for him, he lives in the neighboring 31st, and Lloyd Doggett would likely get to run in a compact district for the first time in decades. Doggett could get primaried though, as this district's VAP is 49% white, 35% Hispanic, and 10% black. (Safe D)
TX-11: this 11th is the old pre-2004 TX-11, and it takes in Waco, Bryan, and a swath of central and East Texas stretching from the Killeen area all the way to the west of Houston. Flores would run here, as it succeeds his TX-17. The Austin crack is gone, making it an extremely safe Trump 65-31. (Safe R)
TX-12: To accommodate the new TX-06, this district is pushed further out of Tarrant, taking in some 80% Trump counties like Jack and Palo Pinto. It also takes in Johnson County, from the old TX-06. Granger is drawn out of her seat here, but she could easily carpetbag due to name ID. The trends in the Tarrant portion of the district are cancelled by the rurals in the west, and this safe Trump 74-22 seat is in no danger of flipping blue. (Safe R)
TX-13: Amarillo, the Panhandle, Wichita Falls, this seat is basically the same as it has been. Thornberry is retiring, but his successor will likely come from the Amarillo area, or Wichita Falls, which are both in this district. It is Trump 79-18, so no Democrat will win it. (Safe R)
TX-14: Brazoria, Bay City, Victoria, this seat is the successor to the current TX-14 as well as the current TX-27. It has both Brazoria and Victoria in it, meaning that Cloud and Weber are double-bunked here. This seat is Trump 65-31, so it is truly safe for the winner. (Safe R)
TX-15: McAllen, Converse, Floresville, one of the "fajitas" of far South Texas, Gonzalez has his homebase of McAllen in this seat, and it is Clinton 58-38. Not much to say here, but it is 69% Hispanic VAP, which I believe is still enough to elect the candidate of their choice. (Safe D)
TX-16: El Paso, this seat can't have much done to it as it's tucked away in the westernmost part of the state. Consisting only of El Paso County, this seat is 79% Hispanic VAP, and was Clinton 68-26. Escobar will run here, and it will be safe for her. (Safe D)
TX-17: Abilene, San Angelo, rural Central Texas, this seat is mirroring the old TX-17, and is Titanium R. This seat would elect a Republican either from Abilene or San Angelo's areas. It is Trump 78-18. That said, Roger Williams represents some counties in the district and given that he lives in Weatherford which is in the 12th carpetbagging would work for him. (Safe R)
TX-18: northern Harris County, this seat takes in KIAH as well as Spring, Alding, and Greenwood Village. Sheila Jackson Lee would not want to run here, as it is only Clinton 53-42, significantly less blue than her current seat. She is on the older side and may want to retire though sometime next decade. In that case, a minority would likely get elected here as the VAP is 33% white, 40% Hispanic, and 24% black. (Safe D)
TX-19: Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, this seat is the cities of far western Texas. Conaway is retiring, otherwise he would have been double-bunked with Jodey Arrington. The seat's population is actually majority-minority and is 44% Hispanic, but the VAP is only 35% Hispanic and is 57% white. Arrington would likely run and win here, but could be primaried by a Hispanic Republican. It is Trump 70-25. (Safe R)
TX-20: central Bexar County, downtown San Antonio, this seat is 74% Hispanic VAP, and is a more compact version of its current self. Castro would be safe here as long as he wanted, as it is Clinton 69-26. (Safe D)
TX-21: Hollywood Park, Dripping Springs, Medina, Llano, the Austin/SA crack is undone here, and Chip Roy gets a safer seat for his antics. It is Trump 64-31, so it would be red for the foreseeable future. (Safe R)
TX-22: Sugar Land, Bexar, this is the Fort Bend County district contained entirely within the county. It has seen some amazing growth over the past decade and has been zooming left. It is Clinton 52-44, and is a highly racially diverse district, VAP being 38% white, 22% Hispanic, 22% black, and 18% Asian. Sri Preston Kulkarni could definitely be elected here, or the Indian County Judge of Fort Bend, KP George. Kathaleen Wall's antics would definitely not help here, but a Republican who is either a minority or is good at speaking to minorities could do well here. (Likely D)
TX-23: El Paso, San Antonio, Eagle Pass, this border district is 62% Hispanic VAP and probably will get litigated to death. Given how the SA suburbs have been trending left, instead of being even like the old TX-23, this seat is now Clinton 52-42. Gina Ortiz Jones would easily win this seat, unless a moderate Hispanic Republican could cut down margins in Bexar. (Safe D)
TX-24: Carrollton, Irving, Coppell, Arlington, this district is based primarily in northwest Dallas County but leans into eastern Tarrant as well. Marchant is retiring, and likely would not have held this seat as it is Clinton 52-44. By VAP, it is 44% white, 34% Hispanic, 12% black, and 10% Asian. A minority Dem like Candace Valenzuela would crush it here, and would be the heavy favorite. (Likely D)
TX-25: Bellaire, Westwood Park, southwestern Harris County, this district is a restoration of the old Houston-based TX-25. This seat would be good for Al Green, as it is Democratic as Clinton 67-29, but it is also plurality Hispanic. (VAP is 26% white, 37% Hispanic, 23% black, and 14% Asian). (Safe D)
TX-26: Denton, Corinth, Sanger, this district is contained entirely inside Denton County - shows the growth of the DFW Metro in the past decade. It is Trump 59-36, and has been slowly trending left, but Burgess lives here and is free to run as long as he wants. (Safe R)
TX-27: San Patricio, Corpus Christi, Brownsville, this is the old pre-2010 TX-27 that was a semi-fajita that took in the coast south of San Patricio. It is 67% HVAP, and should fairly consistently elect a Democrat. Filemon Vela lives in Brownsville, so he could carpetbag to this from the 34th if he wanted to. It is Clinton 52-44, so barring another 2010-style wave the Dem should be favored. (Likely D)
TX-28: Laredo, RGV, Bexar suburbs, this district essentially remains the same, except it takes in more of the San Antonio suburbs to counter the return of TX-27 to the RGV. This district has 79% HVAP, and is Clinton 62-34, meaning that it should elect a Democrat regularly. Cuellar is probably still a better fit for this district than an AOC-type like Cisneros. (Safe D)
TX-29: central Houston, this district is similar to Gene Green's old TX-29 in that it is more compact. Its VAP is 21% white, 40% Hispanic, and 36% black. Sylvia Garcia would be fine here, and the real contest would be the Democratic primary. Clinton won 80-16 here. (Safe D)
TX-30: central Dallas, this seat would be Safe D, and would elect a minority, probably Eddie Bernie Johnson or whoever wants it after her (Royce West maybe?). Its VAP is 30% white, 38% Hispanic, and 30% black. Just like TX-29, the primary is the real contest in this Clinton 73-23 seat. (Safe D)
TX-31: Round Rock, Pflugerville, Lakeway, this district takes in the rest of Travis not occupied by districts 10 and 21, and pairs it with suburban Round Rock in neighboring Williamson County. It is Clinton 55-38, so John Carter would not run here. (Safe D)
TX-32: Mesquite, Garland, Richardson, this northeast Dallas seat was won Clinton 50-45, and is zooming leftward. Colin Allred would be fine here, unless the GOP figured out how to run in suburban districts again. Even though its VAP is only 50% white, Allred would be fine. (Safe D)
TX-33: Arlington, Grand Prairie, Irving, south Dallas, this seat is a new D sink in the south of Dallas and Tarrant Counties. Veasey would run in the 6th as that is a Fort Worth/Tarrant D sink, so this seat would be a new gain for the Democrats. It is 26% white, 35% Hispanic and 34% black by VAP and Clinton 72-25. (Safe D)
TX-34: Harlingen, Edinburg, Weslaco, this RGV seat is fajitaed to the north, and is 82% HVAP. Vela could carpetbag to this seat if he wanted to, but another Hispanic Democrat who is young could easily set up shop or another RGV Democratic politician. It is Clinton 60-36. (Safe D)
TX-35: New Braunfels, San Marcos, Brenham, this seat is the converse to remaking new Democratic seats. Formerly a D sink between Austin and SA, this seat now covers a swath of rural south-central Texas, clocking in at Trump 62-33. (Safe R)
TX-36: Jersey Village, Hunters Creek, the old TX-36 was renumbered as TX-02 again, so the new 36th swaps places with the old 2, positioning itself in western Harris County. Fletcher would likely run here, as it is 26% white, 37% Hispanic, 23% black, and 13% Asian by VAP. This seat is Clinton 50-45, so it could become competitive with the right Republican (a Wesley Hunt-type perhaps), but Fletcher would be the favorite. (Likely D)
Now for the new seats:
TX-37: Richland Hills, Arlington, Colleyville, when decoupling the R gerrymander of Tarrant, in creating the 6th as a safe D sink, there was bound to be a safe R sink. That seat is the new 37th district. Wright lives in Arlington and would likely move here or run to be safe, as it is Trump 60-35. (Safe R)
TX-38: Baytown, Pasadena, Sheldon, this seat is the eastern portions of Harris County, and majority Hispanic (50.2% HVAP). It is very close in partisan lean though, and is Clinton 50-47. This seat is highly competitive, and could easily tip to either side. I would imagine that this seat would be a Beto/Abbott district. (Tossup)
TX-39: Temple, Killeen, Georgetown, this seat is the rest of the current TX-31 combined with Bell County and Coryell. John Carter would carpetbag here as this seat is far less blue than the new TX-31, being Trump 58-36. (Safe R)
Thus, when counting by incumbents:
18 Safe R:
Gohmert (1), Babin (2), Ratcliffe (4), Gooden (5), Crenshaw (7), Brady (
, OPEN (9), Flores (11), Granger (12), OPEN (13), Weber/Cloud (14), Williams (17), Arrington (19), Roy (21), Burgess (26), OPEN (35), Wright (37), Carter (39)
1 Competitive R:
Taylor (3)
1 Tossup:
OPEN (38)
4 Competitive D:
OPEN (22), OPEN (24), Vela (27), Fletcher (36)
15 Safe D:
Veasey (6), Doggett (10), Gonzalez (15), Escobar (16), Jackson Lee (18), Castro (20), OPEN (23), Green (25), Cuellar (28), Garcia (29), Johnson (30), OPEN (31), Allred (32), OPEN (33), OPEN (34)
Thus, this map becomes 19-19 with one tossup, and could easily become 21-18 D by the end of the decade.
