Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The media really does seem to be building up to declare it a dud.

Mind you, this is also designed to try to stir up new leadership tensions ... "Dud Budget!! Knives out for Hockey and Abbott!!!!"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well that was a lot of fluff.

It was useless and completely undermines their own rhetoric... and Leigh Sales ripped Hockey a new one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well that was a lot of fluff.

It was useless and completely undermines their own rhetoric... and Leigh Sales ripped Hockey a new one.

He was awful.  What is he, some poor victim of a media witch hunt?  "Please, Leigh, please" he keeps insisting, hoping to answer the questions as slowly as possible.  For someone who doesn't see anything wrong with huge cuts to services, he sure is a sensitive fella.

I was in the Budget lock up and all you could hear was a torrent of "wow, there's NO-THING here" (except for small business... who were floored).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott's gaining ground in the polls.

God knows why.

Boredom - he's wearing people down, lol.

But you've got 50-50 in Ipsos and 47-53 in Newspoll, so something for everyone. But it's pretty clear Abbott's position has strengthened a little, whereas Shorten's has weakened significantly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor can attempt to rebuild with a new leader after 2016. Hopefully it's Albanese or at the very least someone not as horrible as Shorten.

Speaking of that, can't we get a federal election thread up now? There was already one before this point in the last parliament.

Oh calm down

Shorten is still one of the strongest opposition leaders polling-wise.

It is also important to note that Ipsos has virtually all of the LNP recovery coming off a massive swing to them in NSW, with the LNP up 57-43 and the ALP on a 28% primary. No one seriously believes that number.

Also consider that this poll has a month-long cycle that has included the ANZAC Centenary and a relatively inoffensive Budget... and the BEST they can do, in a poll with a pretty pro-LNP house bias is a tie. This Government still hasn't led any opinion polls since Nov 2013.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I know why Abbott has rebounded somewhat, but what's the main reason for Shorten's approvals plummenting? Was he just only popular because he wasn't Abbott?

I think it could be a few things. Not the least of which the chance that Shorten was perhaps being artificially inflated due to Abbott being so toxic - Abbott's numbers really aren't THAT much better, but Shorten's have gone down and I think that's probably why. Many had seemingly factored a Lib leadership change into the mix, since that didn't happen, I think a lot of the not happy Libs have shifted back behind Abbott, whereas they might have been behind Shorten.

Again... Abbott is still the weakest first term PM of a first term Government in relation to polling for more than 40 years. Shorten is still well ahead of any first term OL. So a big part of this collective crisis on the "left" from Shorten's collapse was something that a lot of people warned against taking too much stock in. We're heading into political no-man's land for the next six months or so, so don't expect some kind of boost in support for the ALP any time soon, because the Government is going to do EVERY-THING in its power to avoid any kind cock-up. Of course, since we're dealing with the Abbott Government, we've no idea when the next balls-up will come.

While I do think the Ipsos 50-50 is probably a touch on the rogue side, with the consensus probably around 48-52, the reality is, the LNP vote probably has been artificially suppressed and conversely, the ALP artificially boosted due to how dreadful the first 18 months of the Abbott Govt has been. But, Australians are too forgiving, if an election were to be held soon, I'd expect the Government would be returned, but with a tiny majority (or minority) and an even more chaotic Senate. But it might be the only thing to help them, considering the Budget is based on very very rosy growth estimates that will likely not carry through and I wonder if they want to go to an election next year with absolutely none of their economic promises delivered? I can imagine some kind of argument later in June when the Government goes on the offensive on savings and calls an election for early August, saying we need a new Senate and until 2018 to get the job done, etc. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

An early election? I could see Abbott going for it, while the government's popularity has rebounded a bit and to starve off any movement for leadership change in the Liberal Party.

There is a generally held view (one that stats support) that the Libs (either in opposition or government) since 1998 make up about 4% TPP during an election campaign. Abbott has said before, but not publicly, "get me to 52-48 and we can win".

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This could get interesting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Thank god the Labor party is putting equal rights to a conscience vote.  Otherwise, we would just end up ramming this policy down the throats of the public which supports gay marriage 2 to 1, at least.  Lol.

The most disappointing news out of the last week has been Shorten's agreement with the Coalition on not having any room for the people who are drowning in the ocean.  It's times like this where I feel really hopeless at the fact that whether the Labor or the Liberal party has control, this country continues to maintain brutal and dehumanising tactics to "discourage" illegal immigration.  On the plus side, this controversy brewing over the Abbott/Dutton proposal to let politicians strip Australians of their citizenship, rendering them stateless without due process, seems to be occurring not just outside of but also within the leadership, with Pyne, Brandis, Bishop, Andrews and Turnbull all on record as having problems.  When a policy is too fascist for Chris Pyne and George Brandis, you really have to wonder.

Yes, there are still some Libs who have issues with contraventions of international treaties and well, decency. Just because they're scumbags doesn't mean we have to act like it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wonder how many Liberals will vote for marriage equality and how many Labor against. I'd expect the Nationals to be near universally against.

I don't know that the Liberals have committed to holding a conscience vote, so you'd expect all of them to vote against it?

Abbott's been saying recently that if the party room wants a conscience vote he will grant one. I have a gut feeling he may allow it this time.

I think he knows the writing is on the wall on this one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Out of sheer curiosity, does anyone know why Family First do particularly well in South Australia compared to other states?

Old, suburban protestants.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The union campaign at the next federal election is going to be massive. Bigger than 2007.

What makes you say this?

People I know who work for unions and campaign for unions, the way they're talking about what will happen during the election talking it up like it's their biggest campaign ever. It's noticeable in marginal electorates atm union campaigns are very active in Deakin atm and an election hasn't even been called. I was talking to a union guy this morning who basically summed up the campaign as "Vote for anyone but the Liberals".

I'm not seeing as much of this.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hockey manages to stuff up yet again. Apparently the answer to the housing affordability crisis in Sydney  is... people need to start getting higher paid jobs.

The answer was there all along.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Guys, it's time to roll Shorten.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/06/15/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-6/

His approval is 28% and his disapproval is 54%. o_o

And on Ipsos he's back ahead of Abbott as PPM. Something for everyone.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't agree with the changes to the pension and I'm surprised the Greens do.

The Greens have been dudded. Their support was based on a vague idea of considering superannuation in the tax white paper. The Government has said there will be no changes in this, or the next term. So they're including it, with no specific actions behind them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is it true that in order to join the Labor Party one must also join a union?

No, it used to be but not anymore.

It was when I joined - but it's a state by state thing now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What union would a professional or creative type join? Or a diplomat? Or just anyone not in a sector that has a union?

The rule, in general, is ... if there's a union you could join, you need to join it before joining the party.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Killing Season is actually brilliant, hard to watch but so good.

So compelling ... Rudd looks like the smug **** he is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Killing Season is actually brilliant, hard to watch but so good.

So compelling ... Rudd looks like the smug **** he is.

The series actually rehabilitated his reputation somewhat I think. Although Gillard continues to come off as a far better individual than Rudd, it's quite clear he was the wronged party (by FAR) in the 2010 coup.

Episode 1 made Rudd look good, Episode 2 made him look distracted and Episode 3 made him look bitter and twisted and incapable of accepting ANY blame for his mistakes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This might not be the best place to ask this, but does the repeal of a law in Australia only need a simple majority like in the UK?

Yes. A majority repeals a law. No Parliament can bind another etc etc

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tony Abbott has banned the CEFC funding both wind farms and small-scale solar, in favour of "emerging technologies".

...

Can't some liberal with a brain stab him in the back already?

They wanted to kill the CEFC, they couldn't do it through legislation due to the deal done with Palmer, but as predicted, if you can't kill the program outright, you starve it to death.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wilson Tuckey was a bit unhinged, but Christensen is attaching himself to every hardcore right-wing fad out there. He's on a decent margin now, but he's got to be careful, Dawson is not uber-safe LNP territory.

And the pressure on Craggle Rock to resign is growing...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Speaker will face the media at 4pm (1hr 15min from now)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ha! Bronnie is doubling down. She's going nowhere and criticised the Treasurer.

Oh yes

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Choppergate is turning into a Liberal Party split. Abbott putting up the barricades to protect Bishop, Hockey turning openly against her and Hewson suggesting that Abbott's defence of her is "staggering" and will "end in tears".

Shorten has declared this a test of Abbott's leadership... which is exactly what he should be saying. The best part is, if she and Abbott resist until Parliament resumes, then Labor will move a motion of no-confidence and put ALL LNP MPs in a really, really difficult position.