Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The thing that Abbott is forgetting is that when Rudd was rolled it came out of nowhere. He was having a tough time in the polls, but yeah.. so people felt screwed over. If anything Rudd's removal was based more on internal mechanics of Government, rather than policy. Gillard's removal saw a considerable recovery in the polls for the ALP.

Had three things happened (assuming we put the Rudd removal to one side) I doubt we would have seen this situation.

1. Gillard had not made the promise on the carbon tax ... this was the centre-piece of her downfall
2. They explained in brutal detail why Rudd was removed. This didn't happen, they didn't make it abundantly clear ... so that left a lot of unanswered questions, so when the Feb 2012 challenge happened, they eviscerated Rudd publicly and just made things worse
3. Offered Rudd a plum diplomatic post and get him to leave Parliament. Mind you, I don't know anyone who was capable of getting Rudd to do something reasonable.

The double-edged sword for the Libs is that yes, the public hates Abbott... but they also hate the policies. Gillard had popular policies, NDIS, Gonski etc etc but nobody listened to her and so she got no credit for it (to the point that the carbon price only had a single-digit neg negative rating by the time of the 2013 election). If they remove Abbott, there's still the incredibly unpopular policies to deal with. They're not suddenly going to change tune on dodgy policies just because the worst salesman is gone.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The other issue to consider is that when it comes to leadership (in Government) the Libs are cowards.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I kind of disagree that it will be Bishop.

She's an unmarried, childless woman ... everything said about Gillard would come into play. That doesn't sit well with a lot of the voting base. She also knows that people started digging into Gillard's private life the moment she became PM... it would be the same for Bishop and let's say there's certainly some decent skeletons to find.

I think Bishop is actually content where she is, for the above reasons and others.

My money is on Turnbull PM, Bishop retains Deputy and FA and Morrison gets kicked up to Treasurer.

What sort of skeletons?

My mum mentioned something about screwing over people making abestos claims when she was a lawyer.

That's actually pretty well known. There are some that I personally think are off limits, but the media won't.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I kind of disagree that it will be Bishop.

She's an unmarried, childless woman ... everything said about Gillard would come into play. That doesn't sit well with a lot of the voting base. She also knows that people started digging into Gillard's private life the moment she became PM... it would be the same for Bishop and let's say there's certainly some decent skeletons to find.

I think Bishop is actually content where she is, for the above reasons and others.

My money is on Turnbull PM, Bishop retains Deputy and FA and Morrison gets kicked up to Treasurer.

What sort of skeletons?

My mum mentioned something about screwing over people making abestos claims when she was a lawyer.

That's actually pretty well known. There are some that I personally think are off limits, but the media won't.

Hmm, so how did you get access to this non-publicly known info about Bishop?

It's actually not exactly secret... you live in this town long enough, it's scary the type of info about these people you get.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Chief Minister of the NT has been rolled in a party room coup. This is the CLP's 3rd leader in less than 3 years.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The latest scuttlebutt is that Abbott sought assurances from Bishop on Sunday that she would not challenge him. She refused to give that assurance.

Which makes his strategy at the Press Club yesterday clear - it was to set Bishop up as Gillard 2.0 if she challenges "she told me I had her support" whereas clearly someone close to Bishop has leaked this to cover her backside, should she go for it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Bishop/Morrison ticket is the one that makes the MOST sense, it gives geographical and factional balance.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Cabinet is preparing to meet, the Cabinet is starting to leak that the Abbott-Bishop relationship is now 'untenable'.

The clearest sign that Abbott is terrified, he's wheeled Margie out. Not only at the Press Club, but today at a press conference in Sydney this morning.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The other side is that is being suggested is that Abbott's office leaked the Bishop refusal. In order to flush out her intentions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So the NT has no government at this time. The Administrator (the equivalent of the Governor) is using reserve powers to enable government to function. Giles is refusing to resign as Chief Minister.

The CLP is in total and utter chaos, and now it's actively risking the welfare of the people of the NT.

The next step has to be an election if this can't be sorted out soon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Giles is going nowhere.

Also: Bishop has reportedly told Sky News "I am not campaigning for the job of Prime Minister, I will not challenge"... "I am not ringing the backbench asking for support, I'm not counting numbers".

So, as usual, the Libs are cowards ... they'll either wait for a suicide bomber (politically) or until things get so bad Abbott has no choice.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol - Giles stays with his usurper as Deputy lol

It also appears that momentum for the LibSpill is growing ... but it's coming from the back-bench, none in the front bench want to touch it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The thing about leadership speculation is now the genie is out of the bottle, it will NEVER go back in, save for some major national rallying event. He's now in an even weaker position than he was before, regardless of outcome.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sinodinos has pretty much fired a warning shot across the bow. This is a really weird situation, but it feels that something is building. 24 hours ago it seemed the momentum was dying... then Jensen, Entch etc etc... even then, it seemed like a very small group. Now this afternoon with Sinodinos saying his support was not "unconditional" and asking what he was thinking "Comrade, ask me next week".

There are reports that Turnbull was calling people, this was denied and then it turned into the MPs were calling him and he's saying "Tony needs more time"... now Abbott's key deputies are doing the numbers and putting tremendous pressure on soft supporters to get in line behind the PM. Quite frankly, it makes it quite clear to me, that the leak about Bishop not giving an assurances was from the Abbott camp to force her to publicly claim her backing. It seems the wonky reports about Turnbull is exactly the same tactic. Put out a report that puts them in the spotlight, forcing them to claim loyalty. Because, if they've done so, then try to roll him, it pretty much dooms them from day one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull's just done a 'Politics in the Pub' thing on the Central Coast. Apparently he was blatantly flaunting his Prime Ministerial credentials.

What I'd heard was that he referred to Hawke having Keating and Howard having Costello ... and Abbott not having anyone.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It appears the momentum is building again and it's behind Turnbull. Abbott is on the offensive, trying to set both her and Turnbull as disloyal liars if one of them tries anything.

'Dis could be gud

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Worse of all, he said "I hope so..." - that's an absolute killer. The Abbott Prime Ministership is dead, it's just a matter of time before the plug is actually pulled. There are a lot of possible scenarios, options etc. The worst for the Government would be a close Abbott win in a challenge. If his margin is less than 25-30 ... not only is another challenge inevitable but he'd probably be pushed to resign.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Also, Shorten has already begun to attack Turnbull.

The ALP is getting ready for an election to be called from Tuesday (I doubt it, but better to be ready). I think they would much prefer a double-dissolution, in order to rid them of the current Senate. But I don't think the Government has a trigger at the moment.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

Also, Shorten has already begun to attack Turnbull.

The ALP is getting ready for an election to be called from Tuesday (I doubt it, but better to be ready). I think they would much prefer a double-dissolution, in order to rid them of the current Senate. But I don't think the Government has a trigger at the moment.

Surely a double dissolution would lower the threshold to enter the senate and send even more ... unique individuals into the senate?

That is the risk... but I think they'd rather risk it, over keeping this particular Senate make up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As long as Ricky "I told you he'd be good" muir gets back in, I'm alright with that

But I think things have simmered down for now. Turnbull won't challenge until he has the numbers, and he doesn't have the numbers. But one more tiny slip up from Abbott, and he's gone.

I kind of disagree... I think unless this is some Machiavellian master-stroke to build expectations and then present Abbott as strong-enough to withstand a challenge being called, I think momentum has returned. At this point, I'd be really, really surprised if Abbott comes out of Tuesday unscathed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Luke Simpkins, a WA backbencher has informed colleagues that he intends to formally motion for a leadership spill.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

RIP Tone

What I'll say... even IF Abbott sees off the challenge, or wins a challenge. This will not be the end of it. The only reason he's been kept on, if he does, is because so many are afraid of looking like ALP (2010-13).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott about to address the media.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It was a press statement of approximately a minute.

He and Bishop will urge the party-room to vote down the spill motion. So, he's trying to avoid an actual vote.

It should be said, it said nothing about what will happen IF the motion actually gets up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

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It shows that he's learned absolutely nothing. He may well survive on Tuesday, but he will not be Prime Minister by the end of the year.