Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Simon Crean was VERY honest in his media conference that just ended.

Basically he said the media games and deliberate destabilisation needs to stop and threw his lot in with Gillard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Simon Crean was VERY honest in his media conference that just ended.

Basically he said the media games and deliberate destabilisation needs to stop and threw his lot in with Gillard.

But his position has always been that he supports the incumbent. Hardly news.

Interestingly, when asked why he isn't being considered in the mix... his answer "I don't have the numbers"...

It is very strange for such a senior minister to not only discuss internal matters but go after their colleagues in public.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Something had to give... it's surprising HOW it happened, but not shocking that it has.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gillard's firewall is the VIC membership, Crean's move has cracked it.

The Right faction installed her... and they might bring her down.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I just drove past the Lodge, the protective services car is outside - which means she's there. Somewhat unusual.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It was a disgusting display from Julie Bishop....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Crean's been sacked. Elliott backing Rudd.

Has that been confirmed?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any Rudd win will be probably narrow... but Gillard needs to win relatively comfortably...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Peter Hartcher just made a very important point... all of those people who stuck their neck out on Rudd's behalf and worked for him, to not even try for a ballot... it probably wrecks his credibility.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

She called Rudd's bluff... she knew he didn't have the majority... I'm told that Rudd never got above 45-46... but that numbers dropped BACK after Gillard's Question Time performance.

My view was that a very tight Gillard win would have been as bad as a loss... her position would have been untenable and she would have had to have gone. By Simon Crean's suicide move and Gillard's quick thinking, she forced the situation to head and made sure her numbers did not have to be tested.

It days like today that I love Gillard... others... eh

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-ends-speculation-of-another-tilt-20130322-2gjn6.html

Rudd makes it as clear as possible...

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[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As I mentioned, I find it strange the Coalition is trying to call again for an early election... you'd think if they were so sure Gillard was political dead-woman walking... you'd want to keep her on for as long as possible.

I don't think they want to risk a more secure and stable Gillard being able to get traction... There's no way a no-confidence motion passes... so the election will be in September, and you get the feeling the Coalition doesn't want that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott's been calling for an election since the last one. Nothing new there. Budget session will be the last sitting of this Parliament, right?

Actually, Abbott has been remarkably quiet on the new election. I haven't heard him say it for months... yes, Morden is right, it's about avoiding any possible come back. I'm beginning to change my view that they're doomed. I still think they're significant underdogs... much weirder things have happened.

I believe the last sitting day would be 27 June.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gillard blasts a certain foghorn and gets Hanson's visa policy endorsement, plus a potential Hanson candidacy, as a result. Let's see her explain this one when immigration comes up in the GE debates.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/visa-campaign-exposes-hypocrisy-in-pms-office-20130317-2g8m0.html

There will only be one debate... and Abbott can't really attack this.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well Combet was already Climate Change, in fact, the single biggest change is the merging of the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency with elements from another department, to become the Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What are the chances of Tony Abbott becoming the next Prime Minister? I remember some time back that Gillard had lambasted him for being a misogynist and his party fell in the polls...

He will almost certainly be the next Prime Minister barring a complete reversal of political fortunes.

I would say it's a 80% chance he's PM on September 15... but he's only as strong as Gillard is weak. If Gillard somehow manages to regain some position, watching her press conference today... if we see that Gillard mixed with the Gillard from last Thursday... things could change.

I'm not saying this as someone who wants Gillard to win, although I do. People need to understand that Abbott's position is not an endorsement of HIM, but about issues with Gillard and the Government. Plus Abbott is not popular, and I don't see that changing... so that's the opening.

More playing devil's advocate than anything else, but just warning against making assumptions about Australian politics in an election year.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I mean, if this poll wasn't a train-wreck, I'm pretty sure everyone would wonder what was wrong with Newspoll.

The one thing you could be certain of was that this poll, after 2 pretty terrible weeks, was going to be as terrible.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Virtually no chance of a Senate Majority... the nature of PR makes it very difficult.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bill Kelty is rather unhappy with the government.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/labor-members-walk-away/story-fn59nqgy-1226608136650

Kelty is a bit like Richardson... has-beens with a need for attention.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In other news, Gillard specifically endorsed Prince Charles as the next Commonwealth head.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21952895

Well... that's not too surprising...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 48% (-2)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+3)
Coalition: 55% (-3)

Abbott remains preferred PM... not sure about the numbers.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 48% (-2)
Greens: 11% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+3)
Coalition: 55% (-3)

Abbott remains preferred PM... not sure about the numbers.

All within margin of error from previous poll, but I think this one is closer to reality than it was.

58-42 was was probably as bad as it will get. I expect a tightening, simply by virtue of the fact it's an election year and polling (rarely) stays the same.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bit weird... but eh. The polls will be strange all year.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, the last Liberal Prime Minister who actually governed in the spirit of the party ... Abbott could learn a hell of a lot.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Brilliant employment report... over 50,000 jobs created in April, participation rate up and unemployment down to 5.5%...