Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Especially as this is self-inflicted to a very considerable degree...

Abbott's combination of small-target policy strategy and strong negativity works when people aren't happy with the Government... but considering public perceptions of the PM and the Government are improving... he needs to turn to policy and in a positive fashion as quickly as possible if he still wants to be leader by the election.

The ALP could spook the Coalition into action by sounding like they're going to an election in March/April... which is the earliest was can expect an election, although, the earliest a normal election could be called is August 3.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-22/gillard-surges-ahead-as-preferred-pm-in-nielsen-poll/4325840

This marries relatively well with this poll from a week ago...

Primary vote
ALP: 34% (NC)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 10%

TPP
ALP: 48% (+2)
Coalition: 52% (-2)
... that's a 12% shift to the ALP since June...

However, that is based on 2010 preference flows...

The Essential something or other had the same 48-52 result, based on 2010 preferences, but asked deeper about preferences and found the ALP picked up another point to 49-51..

Approval
Gillard: 47%
Abbott: 37%

Disapproval
Gillard: 48%
Abbott: 60%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 50 (+7)
Abbott: 40 (NC)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ER still has it at 54-46, but their methodology is weird.

That's true, I heard it on the radio in the car... it was all part of the poll discussion, so I probably got the discussion confused.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So.... new Nielsen poll on the carbon price.

Support: 39% (+6 since CP was introduced)

Oppose: 56% (-6 since 1 July)

Are you?:
Better off: 3% (no change)
Worse off: 38% (-13% since 1 July)
No difference: 59%

Not surprisingly, the numbers for repeal and retention mirror the support/oppose numbers exactly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think if Gillard goes ANY later than say late-September... it'll look like she's waiting until the last reasonable chance... which is a terrible look - see Howard in 2007.

I think the role of the carbon tax is being a little overstated, will it play a role? sure. But will it play the central role the Coalition hoped 6 months ago? No. I doubt you'll get to the point of having 50%+ approval of carbon price, more than likely, it'll go into a coin-toss kind of situation, with support/oppose fighting each other in the mid-late 40s. Which, if you combine that with a parallel drop in support for repeal AND people continuing to not feel any real impact at all... does negate its political weight quite a bit... but certainly not potent enough for the Coalition to run a campaign on.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No political gain and no means of repealing it in the first term. (Could they cut the rates substantially as a first step?) This defensive policy crouch is quite unhealthy to say the least.

The issue is trying to scale back the investments and buying back credits, let alone deciding to reduce the value outside of the Aust/EU market, when that comes on line in 2015... will be VERY expensive and it will be messy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/impressive-gillard-attack-narrows-target-for-critics-20121126-2a30p.html

It seems that whenever the Coalition tries to make this an issue, it's provides another opportunity for Gillard to be at her best.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Has any leader as unpopular as Abbott ever managed to win a federal election? Keating was in the 30s in 1993 and Peacock won the popular vote in 1990 while in the 20s IIRC.

Which is why I think the preferred PM number will be important here, especially when combined with the clear personal unpopularity he... enjoys?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is what happens when you throw anything remotely controversial overboard and run on anti-incumbency/Generic Party. Since Abbott has nothing to say on policy, he's stuck with this sort of stuff.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/attack-dog-methods-bite-coalition-leader-20121216-2bhkp.html

But that's the whole point of Abbott... he's an attack-dog, he's an ideologue who wants to win... but, while he's a bright guy, he doesn't have a policy brain.

He became leader in 2009 by ripping down his own leader from the inside, and did the same to a Prime Minister by playing on fears and being unrelentingly negative... without promising a policy beyond "we'll undo what you don't like" - Abbott became leader and was an effective opposition leader because he was a negative and aggressive figure.

The 'small target' strategy worked for the Coalition in NSW, VIC and QLD... focus on the unpopular incumbent government, focus on them, and avoid releasing ANY policy that could distract the public. The problem is, the Carbon Price was meant to be their golden ticket... but with its power weakening by the month... and the government, and the PM in particular, less on the nose... they need to seriously adjust the tactic. The problem being, very few people actually buy it when they try.

Gillard was as unpopular as the party was six months ago, Abbott is now markedly more unpopular than the party... that isn't a helpful place to be in a party like the Liberal Party, where personal leadership is such a massive element.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Truth be told I think Abbott is more of a values pol than anything. But it goes beyond him... as I said, the Coalition lost their policy nerve 5 years ago and show no sign of getting it back under anyone currently floated for leadership. I hope Howard has made his views known privately about this.

Yes and no... remember, he was privately personally opposed to WorkChoices and backed it all the way as Minister. Abbott isn't a values politician, such as in the US, he's much more pragmatic than that, he's against abortion, but knows it's a political untouchable ... so won't talk about it. Abbott is at his heart a political scrapper, and it doesn't really matter what it's about, he'll do whatever it takes to bring down the opposition and win the fight. Which, is a valuable role as a head-kicker, but you can't be a head-kicker and seen positively by the Australian public...

If you go back to the beginning of the party in 1945, look at the leaders and what that means for the party overall. The most successful leaders; Menzies, Holt (pre-drowning obviously), Fraser and Howard re-made the party in their image and had an idea of where the party was going, even BEFORE they became PM. Then look at the unsuccessful leaders, even those who were PM, Gorton, McMahon, Peacock, Downer, Nelson, Turnbull and also why Costello never happened... because they need to lead from the front, Abbott has a strategy, which could still be successful, but it will be more to do with the Government, than any kind of Abbott policy framework... because it doesn't exist.

The Liberals knew the Abbott would be a huge risk, hence why he only won the leadership by a vote, against a leader that was unpopular and mistrusted by many. It was a successful experiment for a while, but I know for a fact, a lot of people inside the Coalition are saying "we probably lost 2010 because of unease over Abbott, do you think they're going to give MORE votes to us now?"... Winning an election IN SPITE of the leader is a tough, tough ask.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wouldn't bet large amounts on Abbott winning just yet... a year-six months ago, I'd have been there with you. But not now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wayne Swan FINALLY dumped the pledge for a Budget surplus. When everyone, including international economists, political commentators AND international credit agencies, like S&P said the Budget cuts required to achieve it are more likely to hinder growth and development.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-20/swan-dumps-surplus-pledge/4438508

It was totally unnecessary and undermined the Government for the last 3 years.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What has he done to lose it? Or was it always going to be difficult to hold?

It's a naturally ALP seat, albeit with a Greens bent.

He won, largely, due to a protest vote against the ALP - much like Andrew Wilkie. My money is that both of those seats 'go home' next year. Six months ago, the Greens polling in Melbourne was very solid, but as the ALP's prospects rose nationally, and the ALP at the state-level got a lead against the Lib Government, his prospects have slid dramatically... having said that, there was a big swing against the Greens here in the ACT and we're among the most Green-friendly cities. I think the Greens hit their high watermark in 2010... at the expense of the ALP.

IF and it's a huge IF, the Liberals direct preferences to Bandt he 'could' win. But I would doubt it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well that was how he won, a big drop in ALP primary vote and strong Liberal preferences. The Libs would MUCH rather a Green the PM needs to negotiate with over an ALP vote who won't challenge anything.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In Australia, there are a number of periods that are traditionally avoided for elections. Primarily because they know it will piss people off.
* Any time between mid-December and early February (Christmas, people going on holiday)
* The weekends of the AFL/NRL finals (late Sept-Early Oct)
* Easter (basically any long weekend)

My bet is, she pulls the trigger at the end of the Budget session for a late August poll or mid-October. Regardless, she cant be seen to be leaving it to the last moment, which was probably the last nail in Howard's coffin in 2007.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If it gets to September and it hasn't been called, there will a horrid narrative. In fact, once the 3rd anniversary passes on 21 August the pressure will be on.

I say she has to call it by August, or else the story will be 'Gillard afraid of election' which is what happened to Howard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Narrative's pretty bad already (), but agreed on August.

Frankly... it's the best it's been in two years...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not forgetting that Roxon's personal style is VERY similar to Rudd... except occasionally, Rudd smiled. Hugh's point is there, how you treat your staff is a good indication of your personal style. Gillard is very good to her staff and even the departmental people like her, Roxon was someone NOBODY wanted to deal with.

She's competent, tough and smart... but she's not a leader.

The issue about the polling is important... I don't deny there's been a slip, but in the quarterly Newspoll, which came out on 29 December (more respondents, longer time period) the Government is still behind where they were in August 2010. BUT, they've increased their primary vote in Queensland by 10% in 6-months, have a solid lead in Victoria and are level-pegging or behind everywhere else.

The one thing I'll warn the Abbott -fanciers about (why anyone would be is beyond me) is this, in 2001 and 2004, at this stage in the game, Howard was behind by the same margins, or worse than Gillard is now... election years tends to be the most prone to wild-swings and inaccuracies. So, consider the polls, but be mindful not to put too much stock in them. In 2004, the last week's polling has the ALP ahead 51-49, except one... which was far too friendly to the Coalition 54-46... and the result? Coalition 53-47...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First Newspoll of 2013... all my caveats on election-year polling understood?

Primary vote
ALP: 38% (+6)
Coalition: 43% (-2)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 49% (+3)
Coalition: 51% (-3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45% (+2)
Abbott: 33%

Satisfaction
Gillard: 38% (+2)
Abbott: 29% (+1)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 49% (-3)
Abbott: 58% (-1)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Libs have barely had power in Victoria since the 80's.

....1992-1999

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Howard was right on guns, and the evidence showed it worked.

Simple as that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Australia does have some curious minor parties.  Here's one,

http://www.sexparty.org.au/

and its Mission Statement:

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What's 'wowserism'?

The Sex Party got preferences from me before the Christian Democrats did...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And before the CEC for me.

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Social mode:
Smid: replying to your PM now.
Polnut: Up for a couple of drinks tomorrow night?

Didn't see that... sorry. Um, I might be able to do something this (late) afternoon/evening, but I've got dinner plans.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And before the CEC for me.

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Social mode:
Smid: replying to your PM now.
Polnut: Up for a couple of drinks tomorrow night?

Didn't see that... sorry. Um, I might be able to do something this (late) afternoon/evening, but I've got dinner plans.

I'm staying with a friend in Evatt, so as long as it's somewhere driveable/with parking, I'm happy. Free from now until about 7 also. Maybe Lyneham? Not sure where is good and has airco

CRAP! A work thing has happened, so I can't do today...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, I'm Sydney this weekend. But I'll be having Tuesday off.