Australian Election Prediction Contest

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is undoubtedly be changed but as of now.

1) Labor - 82  Coalition - 66  Ind - 2

2) Grayndler NSW (ALP) 74 - 26 TPP

3) Solomon NT (ALP) 50.1 - 49.9

4) Not sure about a list yet

5) predict the two-party vote in the following, semi-randomly selected, divisions:

i) Bennelong ALP 51.3 - 48.7
ii) Wentworth ALP 50.2 - 49.8
iii) Braddon ALP 52.4 - 47.6
iv) Solomon ALP 50.1 - 49.9
v) Leichhardt LIB 51.8 - 48.3
vi) Melbourne Ports LAB 55 - 45

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the online calculators are misleading.

In every swing above 4% Bennelong and Wentworth automatically go over to Labor.

I believe that quite a few 5-7% margin LP will fall before either of those two seats go.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This thing is throwing me for a loop - the size of the swings in individual seats is throwing everything off.