Smash's Senate & House Predictions

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

GOP hold
Pennsylvania - He's staying, guys. Santorum wins by two three to four points.

Quite intellectual!

Tester by 8 is a minor overstatement, but it mirrors most recent polls on the race.
Casey by 6 is hardly unreasonable.  The last 4 polls have Casey of 5, 6, 6, and 8.  It certainly makes more sense than picking Santorum to win.

As for Menendez being the favorite, well, he probably isn't.  TradeSports says Kean is selling at 55, so he's a marginal favorite.  But due to the high number of undecideds in NJ that historically break hard D, Menendez has a very good chance to win.

Now, everyone's heart seeps into their predictions.  Or at least most people's.  Put at least defarge triess to rationalize it instead of stating, "he's staying, guys!"

I agree w/ you on NJ. It's not that Kean can't win or is not the favoured candidate right now. It's the level of UD is far too high - and as you said NJ UD swing heavily D of late. Also the plain demographics of the state are making me wait on this one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So you think that bounce has lasted for nearly 2 years?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Given Bush's approval rating in NJ is presently 33% (the same as MA btw) - and has only grazed 40% once since May 2005 - I would say Bush wouldn't be helpful.

So if you're thinking that Bush's 9/11 bounce somehow is helping Republicans statewide... then I think the Reps need that help like a hole in the head.

If the Dems lose this seat - it won't be because the Reps won it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

But weren't you saying that post 9/11 bounce (which is directly related to Bush - and brought NJ into play in '04) has helped place the Reps in a better position?

Therefore you do agree that if the Dems lose the seat it will be a Dem LOSS rather than a Rep WIN. Because they are the incumbent party and should have won this relatively easily, but they got sloppy and took the seat for granted.