Trump, the tracking polls uniformly show Hillary's convention bump beginning to fade.
LOL.
The answer is Hillary, and you know it.
No. Numbers are numbers. Like I said, my hypothesis may ring true when the next set of apple-to-apple national polls are released next week.
You are right, "numbers are numbers."
And remember, you said that on Aug 12 (today) Hillary would only lead by 3 to 5 points.
Guess what .... you were wrong .... Clinton is leading by more.
I am actually not off by that much with that prediction.
RCP Average is at +6.3 (2-way), +6.4 (4-way).
My assessment of the fundamentals are correct, the margin is narrowing.
RCP's average has only dropped because they subtracted an IBT poll from August 4th. Try again.
The trend is the trend. If you take the trackers in aggregate, it appears as if Trump's support is rebounding and Clinton is losing a marginal amount of support.
I do not expect the blowout that some on here think it will be. The electorate is polarized.
You're right, Trump won't lose by the soul crushing margin he deserves to.