Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tony and Joe's new seats in Question Time today.

Ha! Abbott has to sit behind Peter Hendy, one of his key knifers.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ebowed - might want to look at Claire O'Neil's speech in the treatment of NZ citizens

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Well... nine months out from an election (likely) with a tough Budget and internal ructions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Well... nine months out from an election (likely) with a tough Budget and internal ructions.

I don't think that the Libs have too much to worry about in the short term as far as their polling is concerned (and yes that includes the election). God knows the public don't want to be greeted one day with the shock of Prime Minister Shorten in all its terrifyingly uninspiring blandness.

I've learned about not making even short-term predictions. Did anyone think in mid 2009 than Rudd would be removed and Labor would almost lose the 2010 election?

Or that after 2013 election that Abbott would be removed for Turnbull of all people after less than two years as PM?

Weird and uncontrollable things happen, I'm actually starting to think that an early election is actually much more likely than I have recently. Everything is now cycling around March/April ie before the Budget.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Philip Ruddock to retire

Interesting movements today.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So much chaos in the Government right now

- Resignations, retirements, sackings, tax reform policy paralysis ....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol ... The Deputy Chief Minister of the NT has resigned. This really needs to end.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Fairfax Ipsos

TPP
LNP: 52% (-4)
ALP: 48% (+4)

Primaries
LNP: 44% (-4)
ALP: 32% (+3)
GRN: 15% (+2)

Approval
Turnbull: 62% (-7)
Shorten: 30% (+1)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 24% (+8)
Shorten: 55% (-2)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 64% (-5)
Shorten: 19% (+1)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Effort-post on election timing speculation...


There is increasing chatter about an early double-dissolution election. There is no appetite in the electorate for this, ESPECIALLY from Coalition voters. Sources say that at least 10 seats would be lost on that basis alone (I think that's a little hysterical, but it certainly wouldn't aid good will).

There are basically three windows for the election this year.

- Running to term (or near-abouts)
20, 27 August or 3 September - issues for this, the campaign would be run during the Olympics which would irritate people. Plus 3 September is the latest date full stop as the next weekend would go past the anniversary of the 2013 election and that's only usually done when a PM is trying to delay the inevitable.

- DD elections - the issue for these options is the Budget and it's traditional that elections don't run near Easter (families traveling) or into winter (not sure why that one... but there you go).
He's pretty much missed the window for a pre-Easter election, which was calling an election for the first or second weekend in March before Parliament returned on Feb 2. The other option would be to have the campaign have Easter in the middle and call it for the 9th of April. That would give the incoming Government 4 weeks to get the Budget finalised. But of course, remembering that the Budget can be handed down as late as August. But the Labor attack will be that they're trying to avoid the Budget and it would be potent.

The next option is calling the election the day after the Budget is handed down... 11 May for sometime in July. a) this would be a LONG campaign b) this would be a very strange set of events. Suggesting that the Budget is the manifesto and will only enact it if re-elected... the issue is it would likely span the end of financial year and require cross-party support for an interim funding Bill. Unlikely that supply would be blocked, but that would need to happen or at least be telegraphed well in advance.

The other option would be to call the election at the end of June for 5 August... yes it's the first day of the Olympics... but it would the first possible date for a regular election. But it would require the Government handing down a Budget and assuming no further deterioration in the Government and PM's standing between down and 6 months time... that's a courageous move.


So unless he calls this weekend and it's a longer-than-usual campaign, since a 33-day campaign would  have election day on 26 March (Easter Saturday, so that's a no) ...

I think his windows are...

Call the election on 27 Feb or 4 March for 2 or 9 April - giving enough time pre-Budget. Doing it between then and May will mean a delayed Budget and would look terrible.

Call the election on 25 June or 2 July for 5 August.

Or the very strange option of calling on 11 May for 2/9/16 July. Or, just waiting for the end of August/early September and hope everything works out in the interim?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

TPP
LNP: 50% (-3)
ALP: 50% (+3)

Primaries
LNP: 43% (-3)
ALP: 35% (+1)
GRN: 12% (+1)

Approval
Turnbull: 48% (-5)
Shorten: 28% (+3)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 38% (+7)
Shorten: 57% (-3)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 55% (-4)
Shorten: 21 (+1)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Libs are imploding, they should have called an election as soon as they replaced Abbott.

Yup.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wait, are the Liberals really calling for an investigation into "cultural marxist indoctrination" in public schools?

Not really, what they ARE calling for is an investigation of the program that encourages safe spaces in public schools for LGBTI kids.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Surprised they are not investigating Q & A for bias.

Tony Jones interrupts every Liberal member every 3 seconds on that show.

It's like TOny has an earpiece connected to Kevin Rudd.

Lol, Tony Jones' issue isn't bias it's that he tries to make himself part of the show.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polnut, why do people hate Bill Shorten so much?

I'm not sure people actually care about him either way.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

TPP
LNP: 50% (NC)
ALP: 50% (NC)

Primaries
LNP: 43% (NC)
ALP: 35% (NC)
GRN: 12% (NC)

Approval
Turnbull: 44% (-4)
Shorten: 30% (+2)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 41% (+3)
Shorten: 55% (-2)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 55% (NC)
Shorten: 21 (NC)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So if Turnbull does lose, how long will it take for the LNP right to rewrite history and claim they would have won if Abbott wasn't betrayed?

It's why Abbott and Co are white-anting Turnbull. To try to weaken him, have him lose then argue the unknowable "look, your saviour lost"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polnut, why do people hate Bill Shorten so much?

We dont hate him. He is very uncharismatic.

He sits around 15% as preferred Priminister.

It's about 20% now and will climb soon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm almost certain the election will be in July.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Australian politics is such a joke atm.

Not as much as the US but like jesus christ these people are ridic.

Indeed, it seems likely that the Budget will be moved forward a week (all of the function spaces in P'House are booked up for 3 May... in a week when Parliament isn't supposed to be sitting... hmmm?) to enable the Budget and reply to happen, then announce the next weekend for a (sigh) 8 week campaign.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it's a huge risk, as is a really long campaign when Shorten will be as front and centre as the PM.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So...

Turnbull will recall Parliament from 18 April for a three-week sitting that will include the Budget being brought forward a week to 3 May. IF the particular Bill on the Australian Building and Construction Commission is blocked by the Senate, he WILL call a double-dissolution election for 2 July.

What's clear is that he fully intends to call a DD, but is trying to get on an anti-union footing by forcing this Bill to be the 'trigger'.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hack Senator Joe Bullock resigns because he can't accept SSM, and is being replaced by indigenous leader Patrick Dodson:

Sorry this is late, but I just heard about this story.  I don't follow Aussie politics much, but why would the Party force him to vote a certain way on an issue?  Is that typical?  Also, if it were a problem, why doesn't he just switch parties???

Party line voting is pretty common. This isn't like the UK or US where each vote is a vote to be gained etc. there are some issues that are on conscience. SSM is one of them in Labor, whereas the Liberals are forcing a party-line vote against it. The ALP position will change in 2019, but the party is pushing it as an issue and Bullock won't support it at all. He also won't switch parties, because of his hardcore union background.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull is playing an interesting game here, with a number of options. The official noises are that he's trying to back away from the DD.

1. He really wanted a DD, but the move only really impressed the media and the internal polling is showing the move has not paid off (fwiw, I've heard the internals have the Libs being returned, but it basically being 2010 redux).

2. He really didn't want a DD, but has taken the risk to try to force the cross-benchers to come to heel ... but after all of the bluster of the threats, to not have a DD, even if the Bills are passed, would make him look terribly weak.

3. (the most likely option in my mind) He still wants the DD, but is desperately trying to force the "blame" onto the cross-benchers.

Frankly, despite the remarkable fawning from Mark Kenny/Peter Hartcher etc... I don't see any way out of this in which Turnbull and his government look stronger.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd urge reading into what Malcolm has just tried to pull with the states and with health and especially education.

This is a very, very risky strategy and could do serious damage to the government in marginals.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-01/brent-seriously,-is-turnbull-trying-to-lose-this-election/7288452

Just for context.