How is it feasible for Jeb to beat Hillary?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Getting popcorn for the 4 page long response from dudeabides.

...but yeah, he's been a pretty terrible candidate so far, thank God the money wants him. Mind you, there isn't a reasonable top-tier candidate who hasn't been pretty awful.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

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I beg your pardon sparky? You love declarative statements don't you?

Fuzzy is, of course, right. The base will begrudgingly get in line to defeat whomever the Democrats put up. But this risks being just as damaging a primary for the GOP as 2012, if not moreso. I commend Jeb Bush for not pandering the bat***t anti-brown element in the party. But there are consequences. Bush will likely have to tack significantly to the right on a number of fronts, simply because you cannot survive the GOP primary as the most considered or thoughtful.

It's a lesson in politics, if the base's support for a candidate is based primarily on who they are not, then you usually lose. See Dole, Kerry, Dukakis and Romney.

Frankly, it's a risk for Clinton and she does need to increase her favourables to ensure the base isn't just turning out to vote against the Republican.

I disagree about minorities. Presumably, he'll do better than Romney with Hispanics. In addition, Clinton's weakness on being honest and trustworthy could be an insurmountable problem for her in a hypothetical matchup against Bush. Plus, he has the advantage of getting an early Super PAC lead. That is going to go a long way in defining a candidate.

Bush will likely do better than Romney with hispanics, because, frankly, I doubt he could do worse. But at the same time, I expect Clinton to do slightly better with the white vote.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think saying the base hates Clinton is as silly as saying the base hated Romney, "the base" is not a glob, it's very clearly defined groupings. Clinton has an issue with educated white liberals (including some college kids), but they were the most likely to move away from her when a viable (or even non-viable) alternative appeared, but you cannot be consistently over 50% of the vote if the base hates you. Romney had support from key elements of the base, but just had vocal sectors against him and more people attractive to parts of the base that didn't like him, hence his consistent under-performance in primary polls.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

There's a difference between being more "conservative" and voting Republican.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

You are confident.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

You are confident.

Not really. Why do you think Jeb would do worse than W among Hispanics? W's support for amnesty was mumbled because he didn't want to offend his party. Jeb is much more enthusiastic.

It assumes Bush won't cave to the bases of his party. I have no confidence that he won't. Plus at this point, I think the Latino vote is more and more a Democratic constituency.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

We have had a whole thread on it.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215270.0

Also, look at the 2013 VA Gubernatorial race, where Cuccinelli actually won young voters despite losing.  Similar things occured in many key races last year.  A October Harvard poll actually indicated a majority of 18-24 year olds preferring a Republican Congress. 

I am well aware of that thread, and I'm saying here what I posted on there.

The problem with that Virginia race, was that a Libertarian candidate got 15% of the young vote.
While you could have made the argument that those voters would prefer the Republican to the Democrat, 2014 exit polls for Virginia Senate race show otherwise.  Warner beat Gillespie by 13 points among the 18 - 24 age group, compared to 11 points for the entire 18 - 29 age group.  By your logic, the 18 - 24 age group should be even more Republican in 2014 than it was in 2013, we don't see that.

While some Harvard poll may have said that 18 - 24 year olds preferred a Republican congress in the 2014 midterms, it appears to be wrong: 18-24 year olds ended up voting overwhelmingly for Democrats in 2014.  This simple date point makes it very hard for you to make any headway (at least until we get some detailed 2016 polling on the topic).

Note that the FOX exit poll confirms that 18-24 year olds were slightly more Republican than 25-29 year olds, despite having to deal with the 1990-1991 crowd still, who won't be an "issue" for 18-24 in 2016.  Look for a major gap between 18-24 and 25-30 in this next cycle.

"Slightly More Republican"
18 - 24: 54% Democrat 44% Republican
25 - 29: 54% Democrat 43% Republican

But whatever makes you feel better.

I'd also strongly warn against basing anything on 2014 turnout...