2015 Academy Awards Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why did Selma get a "Best Picture" nomination, but no nominations in the acting categories or Best Director category?  Kind of strange. 

I wonder if Selma is suffering because 12 Years a Slave cleaned up last year.

As for the historical biopics set in England, that type of thing is Oscar catnip.  British/historical things "seem good" because they seem like movies that smart, sophisticated people would like. 

Selma is the first film since 1936 to get a BP nomination without any other major category nomination. Selma has been suffering from one of the WORST marketing campaigns from a studio, almost, ever. The film suffered some bad press from screenings, and because Paramount thought, due to Gravity last year, that Interstellar was going to be their main horse... then the new cut of Selma was winning raves everywhere from critics, and they couldn't get screeners out to guilds-groups in time for their deadlines. Which meant it missed virtually EVERY precursor or guild group. It built no momentum, so by the time the AMPAS voting kicked in, they'd seen other films and there are a lot of passion picks this year... so they couldn't rely on a last minute surge of AMPAS only campaigning to get them over the line.

This is not about race, this is about a s***-house campaign.

On topic - I'm thrilled for Birdman, Grand Budapest and Foxcatcher. I thought Boyhood was actually pretty un-impressive if you take the 12 year filming time out of it. It's a good movie... but a runaway BP winner? (which is what it will be) No. It's so weird that Picture, Director, Actress and the Supporting categories are kind of already locked and Actor seems a two horse race between Keaton and Redmayne.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why did Selma get a "Best Picture" nomination, but no nominations in the acting categories or Best Director category?  Kind of strange. 

I wonder if Selma is suffering because 12 Years a Slave cleaned up last year.

As for the historical biopics set in England, that type of thing is Oscar catnip.  British/historical things "seem good" because they seem like movies that smart, sophisticated people would like. 

Selma is the first film since 1936 to get a BP nomination without any other major category nomination.

LOTR: TTT
Beauty and the Beast
Jaws

etc

I stand corrected.

I think Selma came out Christmas Day.

Also, what is this, like the 3rd or 4th year with 9 best picture nominees? Of course when there were only 5 they all got another nomination.

8 nominations this year.

Rosamund Pike is kind of a weird choice for Best Actress, I don't think anyone would've considered anyone other than Ben Affleck the lead. I guess you could argue she was sort of a co-lead, but I'm sure if you told anyone she'd be nominated for Gone Girl everyone would've assumed it would've been for Best Supporting Actress.

It's a known marketing trick - you put people in the category that they're stronger in, Jennifer Connelly in a Beautiful Mind was CLEARLY co-lead, but she was put in supporting as they thought lead was going to be too strong that year (and it worked). Jim Broadbent, that same year in Iris - same concept, same result. There are examples of this pretty much every year.

This year it's Carell in Foxcatcher... to me, he was supporting (and that's where BAFTA put him) but because Channing Tatum is not getting an Oscar nomination but since Ruffalo is very obviously in supporting, they took a chance and put Carell in lead and again... it worked.

You should also remember that up until September... the Best Actress race was a wasteland. Pike was essentially considered the front-runner, then Wild came out and it became Witherspoon... then Julianne Moore comes along with Still Alice and the race no longer mattered, lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Selma came out Christmas Day.

Also, what is this, like the 3rd or 4th year with 9 best picture nominees? Of course when there were only 5 they all got another nomination.

8 nominations this year.

(I was actually wrong about this being the 3rd or 4th year. I think it's the 6th with more than 5.)

On this note, I can't believe a 9th one didn't garner the low minimum for nomination. I though Foxcatcher or Nightcrawler would be in there to fill the spot "Unbroken" was supposed to take.  Pretty shocking to only have 8. I wonder if that means its a runaway or these 8 are all just getting a lot of votes.

Which makes the Selma nomination seem even more odd... considering Foxcatcher was more popular across the branches.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've really been slacking when it comes to watching stuff this year. That said I'm happy about all of the love for Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel but disturbed by the lack of nominations for Inherent Vice and especially Nightcrawler.

I haven't even watched Boyhood yet though which apparently is a lock to win BP. Sad. Oh well.

Honestly? Boyhood was boring and the acting was pretty mediocre... Take the "it took 12 years to make, with the same cast" narrative away from it ... no one would care.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh Christ... "Boyhood" has become that "OMG, if you didn't like it... you just don't understand x, y, or z" film. It's actually pretty condescending. There are a lot of elements and stories in the film that I related to, believe me. But I do understand why so many are loving this film, I completely do.

There were some decent scenes and I respect the hell out of the film - I just couldn't invest in it and this is the type of film you absolutely have to.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The last film to miss BP after winning SAG ensemble and PGA was Little Miss Sunshine in 2006. The issue to consider is that unlike Little Miss Sunshine, Birdman is the co-leader when it comes to nominations and has support from across all branches of the Academy. The only fly in the ointment, and it's a big fly, is that Birdman missed an editing nomination. The last film to win BP without an editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980. Boyhood still in front.

Redmayne winning SAG was a big-fricking-deal... this is generally an American-centric group and has a tendency to reward veterans and comebacks. Up until this point, I would think Redmayne was just behind Keaton... but IF Birdman is strong enough across AMPAS, then I wouldn't give Redmayne a huge lead, but he's definitely got his nose in front, particularly, if he wins BAFTA next weekend. Although it should be noted that BAFTA went ga-ga for TOE... so..

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's become very trendy to bash Titanic now. Of course forgetting that it was an incredible technical achievement. Even now, the effects don't look 'obvious'. Not that I'm a huge fan of Cameron... but singling him out when you have Tom Hooper, Mel Gibson etc etc to choose from.

On topic - this is going down to the wire. Yes, BAFTA is a good indicator - but frankly, in recent years, DGA has a better record. As mentioned, the last film to win PGA, SAG and DGA and lose BP was Apollo 13, and it should be noted that unlike Birdman, Howard wasn't nominated for Director.

As we know... I don't think Boyhood is a masterpiece, but I won't be annoyed if it wins (as I usually am most years) - I just think Birdman and TGBH are better pieces of overall filmcraft, and I frankly enjoyed both much more

What does bode well for Boyhood is the editing nomination from AMPAS that Birdman missed. Boyhood also won the ACE Eddie, which is actually a big get for it. Mind you TGBH hotel won the Comedy-Musical ACE.

What seems likely is that this year is going to be pretty divided, with no runaway winners.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Forrest Gump was an awful film.

Awful is a bit tough... but better or more deserving than Pulp Fiction or Shawshank? No. I do love Gump's soundtrack though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

When was the last time a Best Picture race was this competitive this late in the game?

Kings Speech/Social Network went down to the wire. Fincher was still favorite to win Best Director the night of IIRC.

Yes, but DGA went to Hooper, which was a massive warning sign.

I've been reading some very interesting anecdotal stuff that none of the films in the 8 have an extremely solid base of support. This is probably the most open for an upset that it has been for a long time.

Consider, regardless of whether Boyhood or Birdman wins BP, it's quite possible that Budapest wins the most. Yes, it happened with Gravity last year, but Gravity won Director and was pretty obviously in second place in the end.

I don't think we've seen so many categories up in the air at this point in the race.

- Visual effects (Interstellar v Dawn-Apes v Guardians)
- Make up (Budapest v Guardians)
- Sound mixing (Sniper v Birdman v Whiplash)
- Sound editing (Sniper v Birdman v Unbroken)
- Score (Theory of E v Imitation Game v Budapest (note that both TIG and TGBH are Alexandre Desplat)
- Film editing (Boyhood v Budapest v Whiplash)
- Original Screenplay (Budapest v Birdman)
- Adapted (Imitation Game v Whiplash v maybe even Sniper)
- Actor (Redmayne v Keaton)
- Director (Iñárritu v Linklater (and I know people predicting Anderson))
- Picture ... with preferential ballots and no one film as favourite (obvs Birdman v Boyhood) anything could happen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Eh, I don't know guys, I seem to recall The King's Speech and 12 Years a Slave being heavy favorites by this point.

That said, I agree that the race is leaning toward Birdman.

I wish we still had an Oscar pool at my job. I used to make bank off of that.

I think only people who don't understand how things work thought Social Network would win. DGA tends to have a stronger correlation to Picture than Director (oddly). So a combination of an upset DGA win for Hooper (Hooper lost the BAFTA to Fincher) and the fact that AMPAS were not the right audience for TSN...

So I think in that year,  Director went down to the wire, but Picture was pretty settled. 

The guild performance of Birdman is pretty extraordinary - it's won every guild award it was eligible for, except editing (it lost to TGBH) ...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Documentary Feature: Virunga
Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Film Editing: Whiplash
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: "Glory", Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Animated Short Film: Feast
Best Live Action Short Film: Boogaloo and Graham
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I honestly have to say that this looks like a really good crop of movies, and it's been a while since I've been able to say that. Looks like they've assembled a lot of good, absorbing contemporary dramas here, and I'll probably get around to watching most of them at some point this year.

Birdman, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation Game look at this point like the most interesting to me. My choice never wins, ever, so I'll guess Sniper wins best picture or one of the others.

There's no way in hell that American Sniper will win Best Picture. It'll be lucky to win anything (if it does it'll be in one of the technical categories). Best Picture is gonna go to either Birdman or Boyhood but if there is a dark horse to watch in that race, it's probably The Grand Budapest Hotel IMO.

Agreed, the preferential voting and a tight race, it could realistically happen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's okay. No one will remember Birdman in two years. Boyhood will endure for many decades.

Agree that NPH was a complete disaster. Worst I've ever seen.

No one will remember Birdman OR Boyhood.