Predict Margin (%) for NC-Senate (user search)
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  Predict Margin (%) for NC-Senate (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict Margin (%) for NC-Senate  (Read 938 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22
« on: September 21, 2014, 07:26:35 PM »
Hagan - 51%
Tillis - 47%
Haugh - 2%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2014, 07:36:29 PM »
Quote from: Frodo on September 21, 2014, 07:33:52 PM
A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2014, 10:57:43 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on September 21, 2014, 10:30:22 PM
Quote from: Frodo on September 21, 2014, 10:20:32 PM
Quote from: Joe Republic on September 21, 2014, 09:51:36 PM
Quote from: Frodo on September 21, 2014, 09:40:42 PM
Quote from: Senator Polnut on September 21, 2014, 07:36:29 PM
Quote from: Frodo on September 21, 2014, 07:33:52 PM
A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.

So it missed Florida -it made a mistake.  Can you name a polling company that doesn't?  But compared to some I have seen here, Mason-Dixon is still among the top pollsters in the country.

Obama +3 in Minnesota; ended up being +8.
Obama +2 in Wisconsin; ended up being +7.
Obama +7 in Connecticut; ended up being +17.

MD used to be good.  Now they're just so-so.

And how about senatorial races?

Pretty terrible:

(2012)
FL D+6; reality was D+13
MT R+4; reality was D+4
ND R+2; reality was D+1
MO D+2; reality was D+16
WI D+2; reality was D+6

The one I trust for NC is PPP... which was last week and had Hagan up by 4% - not because the D is ahead, but because I generally trust PPP for NC.
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