Tasmania 2014

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Getting an absolute majority in TAS is really bloody hard, to the point that any majority, is a comfortable one.

And hifly continues to show just how little he understands the ALP voter in Australia. The ALP is TAS has taken a number of positions on key industries, especially timber, in the last four years that has really unnerved their base. But you have to consider this... 16 years? There are very few Governments in Australia that have lasted that long in the modern era, and naturally boredom and fatigue kicks in.

So to me, it's a multitude of factors
* boredom and fatigue after 16 years
* terrible economic performance
* The relationship with the Greens, which has knock-on effects, such as
 -> perception of prioritising the wrong things - environmentalism over economic development, as well as the fixation the Government had on cultural events and facilities, such as MONA... people just don't think the Government has its eye on the ball and it's time for something new.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes - May was when Parliament expires, but the optics of letting Parliament expire is awful, especially when you know you're going to lose.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

23% undecided is quite large...

Leaving undecided voters in the polling results, Liberals would obviously be less than 50%, and is the only party with more support than there are undecided voters.

It's actually suspiciously high... my immediate thought is if it is true - 23% undecided, this close to the election suggests a typical protest electorate, therefore very unpredictable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Al is correct the primary polling firms in Tas have a track record of under-polling the ALP and GRN by up to 6% in the case of the ALP.

A 6% increase in the ALP primary at this point would be the difference between a loss and humiliation. But the voting system they adopt make big majorities virtually impossible.

But the LNP is winning this regardless.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ride that Blue Tide.

That sounds disgusting...

I'll do a prediction later in the week.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

I still stand by this prediction going into tomorrow.

I pretty much agree, although, the collapse in support for McKim in the Newspoll kind of suggests the Green vote could be much weaker than 16%, and they could plausibly be down to 3 seats. I don't expect that... but could happen.

I'm expecting a primary vote of 50-27-15-8

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The numbers so far in Braddon have a 10% swing against the ALP and a 16% swing to the LNP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ABC Tasmania election night broadcast has degenerated into a nasty cat fight between Eric Abetz and Cassy O'Connor.
Brenton Best isn't doing very well in Braddon.

Toodles.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Very graceful and classy speech from Giddings.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm interested in who will be the 2nd ALP candidate elected in Denison. Could social conservative Alphonse Mulamba become the first African in parliament?

Ogilvie and Amos will likely get the second spot.