Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Intra-Liberal turbulence?

I won't comment too much as I'm involved in the LG referendum... but on the topic... the Libs think this election is close to a done-deal, they think it's OK to disagree with Abbott on something.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd be interested to see the next Nielsen poll - I'm not saying this is an outlier, but it is odd to see that kind of swing without any real cause.

I'm certainly of a mind that this is now a damage-minimization exercise. I wish there was some genuine silver lining in an Abbott Government, but I don't. Getting rid of a government I've been DEEPLY disappointed with and replacing it one I can't trust and will push Australia backwards on so many issues, for the sake of shoring up the bogan vote and making miners and polluters happy... awesome. The worst thing? The people who are likely to elect him will be the ones worse off.

I'm already embarrassed ... and before anyone says 'of course you hate him, you're of the left' If Turnbull were leader, I'd be seriously considering voting Liberal for the first time in more than a decade.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

but it is odd to see that kind of swing without any real cause.

Funding reform fail?

That wouldn't have generated much response.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree with Cameron... when I talk to people about Gillard, the perception of her as cold and calculating bares virtually no resemblance to the person I've met. She's warm, funny, considerate... Abbott is actually WORSE a human being than people think... that's not based on politics, that's based on stories I've been told by people in the Liberal Party (including victims of his mouth)...

Gillard is too considerate in her tone and demeanour, she looks contrived and almost mechanical. Gillard in question time when her back's against the wall is MAGNIFICENT... she needed to lose the talking points months ago and just be herself.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it would be long-term, I doubt Abbott could stay on in the event of two straight losses - they'd probably have to move to some kind of moderating force - which would no-doubt help them...

But people are already talking about a Coalition victory somewhere in the range of 90-115 seats... the idea of which makes me feel physically ill.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It would be a huge blow for the Liberal Party to blow an open goal like this.

Hence why I said 'long-term' ... the Coalition is actually pretty good at getting their act together after losing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't know what the hell Gillard is doing... where's the fire?

It's the first time since he was removed that I wish Rudd was in office, he's got the balls to call out Abbott on his bulls%($... Gillard should be running ads day after day showing he's only interested in winning and will say whatever he needs to to win.

If she won't fight... why should anyone else?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

When a population stops listening... anything is possible.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

Or in my case... hoping for an actual progressive party that can do both economic fairness and social liberalism. One of the things that made me REALLY angry at Gillard was her statement...

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Gillard's thrown progressives under the bus for the sake of old school labor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

How did you handle Eden-Monaro? As a Canberra-suburb-ACT-small-swing, or as a NSW swing?

Queanbeyan will be driven more by ACT, so the swing will be lower there... but I know the coastal towns will be more coalition-friendly... I think E-M can be held on to, largely because Mike Kelly has established a strong presence as the local MP and the electoral shifts support increased ALP presence in the largest population area... I've given it to the Coalition... but it's going to very, very tight. Especially considering in 2010, Kelly was the only NSW ALP MP to get a swing TO him.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Queanbeyan is a weird mix - in some ways it's very similar demographically to the Tuggeranong Valley in the far south of Canberra - public servants looking for cheaper housing, young families and working-class people... that area saw the biggest swing to the Liberals in the ACT LA election. I think Kelly hold E-M by about 4.2% he would need to keep the swing in Queanbeyan below 2% to hold the seat... which I think will be really tough...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

And what average 2PP are you actually basing that on? Your prediction seems to be "the odd one out" so to speak.

The 2PP national votes suggest a uniform swing (which won't happen), which over and under-estimates seats losses, which is why state-by-state swings work out slightly less badly. But my numbers end up being 53.3 - 46.7% national 2PP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

Or in my case... hoping for an actual progressive party that can do both economic fairness and social liberalism. One of the things that made me REALLY angry at Gillard was her statement...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillard's thrown progressives under the bus for the sake of old school labor.

Why don't you go join the Green Party; you'll be happier there.

a) because the Greens can't win a national election
b) because I don't like Greens economic policy
c) Under Gillard, the ALP has gone BACKWARDS on social progressivism

But she has very clearly made a calculation that with 2PP voting, progressive votes will end up with her anyway - go she's been focusing on working class and outer-suburban voters at the expense of her progressive base.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/in-rudd-we-trust-say-voters-as-annihilation-looms-for-labor-20130608-2nwzq.html

Polling out of 6 Cabinet minister's seats show if Gillard remains leader - Peter Garrett, Craig Emerson and Jason Clare would all lose their seats and the majorities in Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin and Bill Shorten's seats would shrink...

If Rudd were returned... all would hold their seats, with an average improvement of 6.7%...

This comes at the same time as reports emerge that 32 ALP MPs have requested party HQ to arrange a Rudd visit to their electorates in advance of the election.

A friend of mine working for a senior minister tells me, the hope was that Gillard would be able start a shift in support by the end of the Budget sitting session... About 5 weeks ago, I was told internal ALP polling wasn't as terrible as the public polling... but now... they're starting to be as ugly as the public ones...

I think Gillard's hope that policy will trump things in the end is a HUGE mistake - I know she doesn't want this to be about personality (nor do people who actually care) ... but it is (and if you're in a personality/popularity contest with Tony Abbott and LOSING?!) in addition Gillard's shown terrible political judgement and honestly, a lack of serious guts at crucial moments... which kills me to admit. But I'll still take her every day of the week and twice on Sunday over Abbott... if it were Turnbull probably a different story... (but that's not the conversation).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I thought Swan's seat was up for grabs, especially given certain predictions of Rudd being the last man standing in QLD. On your other point, policy's the problem.

It's actually not... if you look into the polls and go a bit deeper... the policy issues really aren't that unpopular. I think you've got to stop fixating on the carbon price (which is the thing I notice you come back to)... it's more popular than the government is (roughly split now). There really isn't a major policy proposal that can be defined as toxic... or even as a weight. Conservatives will immediately say "yeah, well people hate this carbon tax"... except the evidence doesn't stack up.

It's that they don't like Gillard, they don't trust her and they've kind of stopped listening to her...


I've seen polling out of Rudd's seat, which has him without any swing against him.... but that was a couple of months back.

Yes, if there's one thing the ALP bench needs... more social conservatives to alienate a big whack of their base.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Swan's 2PP number goes from 53% with Gillard to nearly 57% with Rudd

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Feeney is a decent fit for the seat ... I think it probably ends up 2PP ALP
v Grn - depending on preference deals.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm... you're right. I had heard nothing about them... obviously Thomson is a different case now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There is still a significant rump of socially conservative Catholic retirees who form part of the ALP's base, although I do acknowledge that their power is too disproportionately great within the party.

It's not just that they're too disproportionally powerful... although they definitely are... they're a decreasing part of the base.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just had a VERY interesting discussion... let's just say I've gone from 40/60 to 60/40 that Gillard will NOT be leader at the election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I haven't had a chance to iView Insiders... but it looks like things are turning.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-09/julia-gillard-loses-significant-support-in-caucus/4742626

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some interesting articles....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-10/green-polling-dates/4743932

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/fickle-fate-labor-keeping-an-eye-out-for-goddess-fortuna-20130609-2ny82.html

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, despite Latham's melodramatic intervention... I think he said something important.

My views have wavered a lot over the past few days... going from Gillard should go to no... she should probably hang on... I think like a lot of people who don't want Abbott's wrecking-crew to have total control of the parliament for a decade have been in a weird spot.

But I think I've come to the conclusion that Gillard should stay on, they should grow a pair, go after Abbott (and the plethora of examples to support it) and highlight their achievements. They can minimise the potential losses, but accept the loss as necessary to undertake the renewal work that is desperately needed. If they move to Rudd and they win, all it'll do is extend the dysfunction in the party and send it crashing backwards within 6 months.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There hasn't been an impetus for reform since the package put together a couple of years back... their focus has been on surviving... if they lose 15-30 seats and help install Tony Abbott of all people as PM, then I think the internal impetus will be there. The issue is how far it can go and whether or not a new leader will be interested in reducing the union/factional interests... basically, the party needs another Hawke.