Mitt Romney gains his first lead on RCP!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

"These are all junk polls of course. Obama is still leading and will win."

It's time to take your heads out of the sand, fellow Dems. We're in big trouble.

We've known this was coming for almost a week, lol...

Trouble, yes... big trouble? no.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hahaha Rasmussen is pulling the RCP average towards Obama.

More seriously (and, actually, relevant to the above), many of these Romney-favorable results include Friday and some of that was a bounce.  Today's Rasmussen does not.  Blue avatars should not be buying champagne and red avatars should not be buying plane tickets just yet.

Exactly... Ras is one of the few national polls which is now outside of Romney's polling peak... we'll see by Thur/Fri what the actual outcome is... there was a bounce and a swing... but since we're operating on multi-day polling and many still have the best Romney samples in them... we need to take some space.

Not dissimilar to the post-DNC bounce, we needed time to see where things lay...

If I were a Republican, I would be certainly a lot more confident than I was, but everything needs to be tempered with perspective and context.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There is an irony to the whole Rasmussen thing. He is one of the only pollsters who weight for party ID. Other polls are showing huge swings to Romney are also showing huge swing in party ID. So pollsters like Pew who were supposedly in the tank and "skewing" the results are now doing the same thing but for Romney. In fact if you were to "unskew" everyone's polling to use Rasmussen's party ID you would probably still have an Obama lead on RCP....not that I think you should do that, but it's kind of funny.

What does unskewedpolls.com think of this? I'm curious.

Rasmussen is wrong too, according them... apparently Romney wasn't tied with Obama, he was ahead by 6