Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hello all...

It's certainly been a horrible campaign... Saturday will be entertaining.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A megapoll?

Where?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Her stance on the Republic is probably the majority view in Australia - there are more 'Elizabethans' than actual Monarchists.

This'll be a close-run thing.

There was an exit poll in 2007 and while it got the Party win correct, they did miss the numbers in the house seats by a bit - especially Eden-Monaro... they did get the national number correct though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There might be a Nielsen poll out tomorrow.

This is really is going to be nervewracking...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Watching Gillard speak she knows how close this is going to be - Abbott got the endorsement of the News Limited papers in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. It's expected the Melbourne Age and the Sydney Morning Herald will endorse Gillard tomorrow. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The difference was that in 1998 - there was a massive majority which allowed for a buffer, and 1990 relied entirely on Democrat preferences... as this one might be on Green preferences.

Labor can win 2PP vote and lose... easily.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No, I agree that the Green vote won't stay at 14% - probably somewhere between 9-11%, which means the Labor primary vote will likely rebound a little.

It's not really an issue of not understanding how pref. voting works, it's more about people going in and just not being able to vote for the Greens... I'm voting Green 1st preference and Green above the line in the Senate. But the ALP will be second preference in the House. I agree with the Greens on public transport, gay marriage, being more agressive on climate change (frankly I think their policy is too strong)... but I don't trust them to run the economy... hence why I think it's better to have them in the Senate to temper bad policy.

There's actually a great article on the ABC election website - talking about the tactical voting in the ACT Senate, which shows that ALP voters are comfortable enough that there's enough for the one senate seat, that many vote for the Greens instead...  but since there's a rock-solid 30% liberal vote in the ACT, it makes the Greens job so much harder

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polls close at 6pm AEST, but you won't get meaningful results until after 7pm... which is 5am US EDT

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Party discipline is pretty strong so a small majority is probably workable. A minority Government will be more problematic, it's still possible that one of the independents (or if the Green wins Melbourne) decides to have some kind of hissy-fit.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I heard from someone intimately involved in the Liberal campaign. They think their best hope is a minority government - QLD isn't going to be good for the ALP, but maybe not the bloodbath the LNP needs. They also aren't sure about Bennelong, Greenway, or Macquarie (3 NSW seats that are must wins for the Coalition)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also people keep in mind should Brandt win Melbourne he won't be the first Green MP, Michael Organ won the Cunningham by-election in 2002. He would be the first to win at a general election.