VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

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VPAP has a nice visual on the fundraising of all of the gubernatorial candidates (official accounts and PACs). It shows the money raised in the first half of 2020, and their cash on hand as of June 30.

I can't post the link, but here's the data:

Terry McAuliffe: $1,689,000 raised, $1,594,000 on hand

Jennifer Carroll Foy: $811,000 raised, $696,000 on hand

Jennifer McClellan: $490,000 raised, $411,000 on hand

Amanda Chase: $227,000 raised, $191,000 on hand

Mark Herring: $24,000 raised, $392,000 on hand

Justin Fairfax: $19,000 raised, $85,000 on hand

Bill Carrico: $0 raised, $7,000 on hand.



For me, the big takeaway is that I have do not have to fear Justin Fairfax getting the Dem nomination, even with a split field. While some Dems are willing to tolerate him and invite him to events now, he is not seen as a credible candidate for governor.

So with all this fundraising for Tmac, is it a certainty he runs

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So with all this fundraising for Tmac, is it a certainty he runs

Not a certainty but highly likely.

Would he have any other reason to start fundraising right now

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McAuliffe filed paperwork yesterday to set up a 2021 gubernatorial campaign committee. He appears to be running.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1296454306590334982

That likely ends the primary before it began.

yeah it's over before it begins. oh well

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McAuliffe filed paperwork yesterday to set up a 2021 gubernatorial campaign committee. He appears to be running.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1296454306590334982

That likely ends the primary before it began.

yeah it's over before it begins. oh well

So now we turn our attention to the race for Lt. Governor and Attorney General...

exactly, thankfully besides a random cabinet job in a Biden admin or Harris admin I don't see Tmac going any higher than VA gov. Certainly won't be in the senate, I think Warner and Kaine are lifers and they are Tmac's age.

So it's time to build up the state wide progressive base in lower state wide offices

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I am so confused why people think McAuliffe has this "in the bag." I think he's the frontrunner, but the party is obviously hurtling left fast on racial justice issues, and he's a white man tied to the Clintons.

If money can buy a primary, why is Bloomberg not the nominee? I still think one of the Jennifers has a chance, and maybe even a better than even chance if the other drops out. Don't underestimate the "representation matters" argument, especially when it's only starting to gain steam not lose it.

Dems are going pretty far left but not VA dems or else Tom Perriello, would have won the nomination in 2017. McAuliffe by far has the most name ID and between the other it's not even close (save Fairfax but he doesn't stand a chance). McAuliffe is still widely respected in the state and any opposition to him will most likely be divided anyways. Also, if it's a post-Biden win national democrats will want to push someone they think will win thus McAuliffe. I wish he wasn't the frontrunner but that's what we have.

Money's value in politics decreases with how much the campaign is visible. So in presidential elections it is less value because people form their opinion outside of ads, contrast that with say a democratic primary for governor, ads make a HUGE difference. And if there is someone who can fund raise it's Tmac.

Him being a white dude certainly doesn't help, but again he has the name ID, the popularity, party support, and money which certainly matters.

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Herring's big mistake was deferring to Northam in 2017.  In retrospect, 3 different people basically passed up a chance to automatically become governor in 2017: Herring by waiting for 2021, Perriello for by not finding the yearbooks before the primary and Gillespie by not finding the yearbooks during the GE. 

Gillespie still wouldn't have won.

But yeah, Perriello did himself in there. Northham won primarily due to his power base in VA beach. He would have been seriously damaged there and in NOVA.

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If theVirginia GOP don't want to get less than 40% of the vote in 2021, then they should go for him.

Nope. It's going to be Amanda Chase. Virginia GOP is one of the worst state GOP's in the nation.

VA GOP is truly a shell of its former self the only party I can think of that resembles it is the AR dem party. They dominated the state, then the second any competition comes along, they sink like a rock in water.

To be fair the VA GOP had a tough hand to begin with. Floods of college white and latinos while Obama woke up VA beach as a real political force in VA. But with Gillespie, Stewart, and Allen they have not been doing themselves any favors

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If theVirginia GOP don't want to get less than 40% of the vote in 2021, then they should go for him.

Nope. It's going to be Amanda Chase. Virginia GOP is one of the worst state GOP's in the nation.

VA GOP is truly a shell of its former self the only party I can think of that resembles it is the AK dem party. They dominated the state, then the second any competition comes along, they sink like a rock in water.

Don't you mean AR here?

yeah sorry