Manchin and Sinema oppose any sort of filibuster carve out

[wesmoorenerd]

The margin of Sinema's primary loss to Gallego in a couple years is going to be something else I tell you what.

I think Krysten Sinema will switch parties later this year alongside Joe Manchin. Both she and Manchin are better fits for the anti-Trump wing of the Republican Senate caucus.

Sinema would lose a republican primary possibly even more badly than she's going to lose her next primary as a democrat. AZ republicans are simply not going to nominate Sinema when they can get Kelli Ward or any other number of crazed republicans as their nominee. Spitting in the face of your base - repeatedly - in a futile effort to appeal to some imagined "middle" constituency that loves the filibuster (not in the constitution) above voting rights and reproductive freedom always was and always will be among the dumbest political moves I have ever seen in my lifetime. We have to get away from this ridiculous idea that Sinema is some kind of genius. It's simply wrong.

Now Manchin, he could potentially switch at some point. A lot depends on whether dems hold or expand their Senate majority. He would not be as doomed in a republican primary, but of course would still have an uphill climb.

Both Krysten Sinema and Joe Manchin could potentially win a Republican Senate primary if there are multiple pro Trump candidates running. Also, they both could run as independents who agree to caucus with Republicans if they lose hypothetical Republican Senate primaries as well. Both Krysten Sinema and Joe Manchin have a lot of local support in their respective home states, so maybe they could win election to the Senate as Republican aligned independents with a plurality.

I disagree that two senators who voted to convict trump in both of his impeachment trials stand meaningful chances of winning republican primaries. I just don't see how it happens. No MAGA voter is going to go for them when given a more slavishly pro-trump alternative. Sure, primaries could start out with multiple pro-trump candidates, but the field would whittle down to one or two of them.

Yeah, it's a laughable idea. Sinema couldn't win either party's nomination at this point.