Election models megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

The forecasters are mind-numbingly stupid and predictable. The last few months have represented an objective shift in the national environment in the Democrats' favor, but forecaster brain has one setting and it's "just move a couple of races toward the out-of-power party every few months." They're not the most creative bunch.

[wesmoorenerd]

Probability of R House control drops below 80% for the first time at 538; currently 79-21 in the Deluxe model (still 80-20 in Classic).

D Senate control is 59-41 in Deluxe, up to 72-28 (a new high) in Classic.

Wonder if and when R House control becomes less likely than D Senate control in Classic. Would say quite a bit.