Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[wesmoorenerd]

Latest PredictIt prices in too close to call House races:

California 10 (Harder-Denham) 84-24 or 59-41
California 25 (Hill-Knight) 97-3
California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 38-55
California 45 (Porter-Walters) 39-62 or 40-60
California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 98-1
Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 30-93
Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 80-21
New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 98-2
New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 98-2
New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 8-92
North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 2-99
Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 2-98
Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 70-30

The divergent odds in the two CA districts is because, for some reason, PI has two markets for those two races (one for the district and one for the incumbent).

[wesmoorenerd]

WTF is actually happening in Broward

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner?

[wesmoorenerd]

SHE DID IT

[wesmoorenerd]

PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue)

California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13
California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1
California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43
California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19
California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1
Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88
Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11
New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4
New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13
New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98
North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90
Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96
Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10

Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04

[wesmoorenerd]

PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue)

California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13
California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1
California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43
California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19
California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1
Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88
Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11
New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4
New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13
New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98
North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90
Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96
Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10

Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04

Colored TX-23 wrong, might confuse some people.

I didn't, actually. Ortiz Jones' chances improved a little bit since a few days ago, although it's just noise.

[wesmoorenerd]

Rudy Salas must be kicking himself right now.

[wesmoorenerd]

We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado.

[wesmoorenerd]

We can expect our first Los Angeles County update this afternoon. Doesn't look like there is an exact time.

https://twitter.com/LACountyRRCC/status/1061722040019824640

IIRC the only major race still uncalled in LA County is CA-39. This will probably be make-or-break for Cisneros, he needs as many votes as possible from the LA County portion of the district.