2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[wesmoorenerd]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

[wesmoorenerd]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

Are you seriously implying Steve King is as safe as Jose Serrano?

[wesmoorenerd]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

Are you seriously implying Steve King is as safe as Jose Serrano?

I mean, maybe he's at 99.9% likely to win as opposed to Serrano's 99.9999999%, but we're kind of splitting hairs at that point.

You're being a bit too generous to King. I'd peg him at maybe 90% at worst given the uncertainty that still exists at this juncture.

[wesmoorenerd]

Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

Exceptional numbers all around, especially from FL-26. I was under the impression that most internals were showing Curbelo ahead. Either this is an outlier or the race has really moved quite a bit.

18 and 25 are great too, I wouldn't have expected us to be so close to Mast and the fact that Diaz-Balart is only at 41 is surprising and a good sign.

[wesmoorenerd]

Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

Exceptional numbers all around, especially from FL-26. I was under the impression that most internals were showing Curbelo ahead. Either this is an outlier or the race has really moved quite a bit.

18 and 25 are great too, I wouldn't have expected us to be so close to Mast and the fact that Diaz-Balart is only at 41 is surprising and a good sign.

FL-18 was Patrick Murphy's seat and he was able to boot out Allen West in 2012 and hold it by a landslide in 2014, so it's definitely competitive. It's been underrated this cycle if you ask me.

I'm really curious exactly how many seats in FL Democrats actually stand a chance in, because we've gotten a lot of polls that are somewhat similar to these for Democrats in other seats. If you were to assume those were all competitive, it would suggest Democrats have a chance at picking up anywhere from 1 - 6 seats or so, which would be a crazy good election.

I think the thing with FL-18 is that Mast seems like quite a strong incumbent. He raised a ton of money last quarter (almost 900K) and he has a charismatic profile.

The thing about Florida I've noticed is there are very few competitive seats in which Dems are actually favored (only one, actually, FL-27) but there's a huge number of competitive seats where Dems are within striking distance (06, 15, 16, 18, 25, 26, maybe even 12, 08, and 19). In other words, Dems probably underwhelm on an average night, but just a few additional points on the GCB would net Dems up to six additional seats.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1043206573303234560

I love how every time Charlie Cook decides to move a random safe D seat to likely D for no reason he immediately gets egg on his face from a credible pollster. First NY-25, now this. lol

Lmao, seems to me like he's trying to stay ahead of the curve.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1043263831844126721

I'd take this with a grain of salt. If this is remotely near reality (I don't think it is), Dems would be having a titanic sized wave obviously.

Grain of salt of course, but this race has sort of interested me for a while. Rooney only raised 20K last quarter, which is the second worst of ANY GOP incumbent. It's R+13, so it's a barely possible stretch in even a bluemageddon type scenario, but perhaps there's something weird with the district.

[wesmoorenerd]

NH-01: Pappas +22 (55-33)
NH-02: Kuster +27 (54-27)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd118/
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd218/

It's ARG, but these look Titanium D as expected. MT Treasurer will love these, lol. Look at that 58 point gender gap in NH-02!

Not sure if I buy those, those are some over the top numbers for nearly even districts.

[wesmoorenerd]

We got a dump of Oklahoma polls from Sooner Poll, covering the 3rd, 4th, and 5th CDs.

http://www.newson6.com/story/39208380/exclusive-news9-poll-oklahomas-congressional-incumbents-drawing-strong-support

OK-03:
Frank Lucas (R-inc) 54
Frankie Robbins (D) 24

OK-04:
Tom Cole (R-inc) 58
Mary Brannon (D) 25

OK-05:
Steve Russell (R-inc) 47
Kendra Horn (D) 37

Tossup/Tilt R, Tossup/Tilt R, Likely D

[wesmoorenerd]

FL-26 DCCC/GBA Strategies: Mucarsel-Powell (D) 50, Curbelo (R-inc) 48

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/mucarsel-powell-narrowly-leads-curbelo-dccc-poll-floridas-26th-district

Note: This is separate from DMP's own recent internal showing her up 49-48.

Perhaps even Curbelo won't be able to outrun the wave. Tilt R > Tilt D.

It's looking increasingly likely that the only Republicans left in D-leaning seats after November are Valadao and Katko, maybe even just Valadao.

[wesmoorenerd]

Fitzpatrick seems to be in good shape. Same as Will Hurd. But yeah, most clinton-repubs are going down. I'm not convinced that Katko is particularly safe either.

Well, technically those seats are R by PVI... so I'm right 

[wesmoorenerd]

Shalala is our worst candidate this cycle by far. Stop calling out Perry Gershon and Tracy Mitrano or whoever, she is awful. Anything but Safe D in this seat with this cycle under these circumstances should be considered unacceptable shame on her. Honestly though I still think she wins and I want her to win, but this is ridiculous.

I sorta have to agree. Gershon and Mitrano are unremarkable at worst. Cockburn, Cox, and Wallace are more actively "bad" but Shalala is worse than all of them combined. Imagine what an actual competent candidate like JJR would be getting in this district right now!

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1051909760814108672?s=19

Decent numbers. This race will be close.