WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[wesmoorenerd]

At this point, MT and WV are solidly Dem-favored seats. The GOP is going to be hammering Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Nelson, especially the first two, with all of their strength.

On a different note, this is why I think the Dems' chances of taking the Senate are underrated this year. People parade the eye popping "ten Democrats in Trump states" statistic, but it's incredibly misleading. Baldwin, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow are almost completely safe at this point, often with double digit leads and better fundraising than their weak challengers. That's four of ten "vulnerable" seats. Manchin and Tester are strong favorites at this point against overrated busts of challengers, and at this rate I don't see them losing. That's another two of ten. McCaskill is up against lazy boi Hawley and has consistent, if hardly comfortable, leads in the polls. That's another slight Dem favorite. Rick Scott is blowing through money against Nelson, who's done little campaigning, and he's either trailing or has an inconsistent, tiny lead. Assuming Nelson, a battle tested incumbent, starts pumping up his campaign, he'll become a strong favorite. That's another Dem favorite.

All in all, Donnelly and Heitkamp are the only Dem incumbents I think would have much of a chance of losing if the election was held today. Even there, they'd probably only lose one, not both. Considering the three excellent Dem pickup opportunities in NV, AZ, and TN, I'm pretty confident the Dems have a much better chance to win the Senate than the 30% bulls*** you see on PredictIt.

[wesmoorenerd]

Richard Ojeda is on the Van Jones Show on CNN. Show starts 6pm central tome and ends 7pm central time (though I don't know when Ojeda appearance is at), make sure and watch or record!

Can someone post a clip after hes on? or explain what happens? I dont have cable anymore.

I'm planning on watching it, I'll give you a recap.

[wesmoorenerd]

It's so awkward how much distance there is between Manchin and Ojeda. They were both in Huntington for an Italian festival a couple days back, and did not even see each other at the event. Yet Manchin was hanging out with ff Hornbuckle, and Ojeda with some random state senate candidate, so they were obviously politicking around a bit, and I don't think there aren't any reasons for that lack of meeting... nonetheless, whatever both of them are doing seems to be working (aka they are ahead rn), so do whatever you need to do to win, but I still feel it's kind of a weird atmosphere.

from what I have read, the two have rather icy relations, so it makes sense that they wouldnt see each other. But yeah, the two represent two different approaches to win in rural America.

Well, it makes sense in the sense that they have two very different political philosophies. Manchin's a conservative, Ojeda's a populist. But I gotta say, I'm surprised that that would make the two hostile toward each other. As someone with a healthy amount of respect toward both of them, I find it odd that two clearly able politicians with the same general interests in the end wouldn't respect the others' methods.

[wesmoorenerd]

The West Virginia Coal Association endorses Morrisey.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/08/22/west-virginia-coal-association-obama/

If the Democrats take the Senate West Virginia coal can kiss any future good by.  They will throttle Trumps control of EPA.

Coal already has no future.

[wesmoorenerd]

You know, I can't deny that recent Democratic statements on coal have been impolitic, but in the long run the Republican strategy of "pretend that coal is still a viable industry and pretend that we'll have a resurgence of coal any day now" is far worse. The Republican line may sound better to disaffected coal communities, but let's not beat around the bush: coal is in an irreversible decline. Democrats at least try and implement solutions that will benefit these communities, like job training and revitalization efforts, while the Republican strategy boils down to sticking their heads in the sand, praying for a coal renaissance that'll simply never happen, and preying on the emotions of vulnerable and marginalized communities across Appalachia and elsewhere.

[wesmoorenerd]

Manchin, Ojeda, and I all support Trump rolling back environmental regulations to help WV coal.

Truly foolish. I get that WV politicians have to support coal to get elected, but we can't throw the kitchen sink at a dying industry forever. One of these days, we're going to have to come to terms with the fact that coal isn't coming back, and the sooner that day comes, the sooner we can actually try to implement real solutions for coal communities. And even if coal wasn't doomed, which it is, it's not worth rolling back environmental regulations to try and save it. Do you realize how absurdly behind the curve we are in regards to the environment? Rolling back regulations is just going to speed up the horrific effects of climate change that are going to ravage the Earth in mere decades. Rolling back environmental regulations, knowing what we know now about climate change, amounts to a crime against humanity.

[wesmoorenerd]

The only time Morrissey is energetic is when dunken donuts has a buy 10 get 2 donuts free sale.

You know, it is actually interesting because I have noticed that there really are not very many congressmen who are noticably on the heavier side. Off of the top of my head I cannot think of anyone in the Senate, for instance, who is quite heavy. Trump is not the thinnest man in the world and he is obviously President, but he is not heavily overweight either. There are examples at the State level, but fewer in Congress. Representative Farenthold was a bit on the heavy side, but it does seem to be something uncommon for those in Congress.

Jon Tester is THICC

Absolute unit

[wesmoorenerd]

Chad Manchin would've taken Fat Pat's lunch money in high school.

[wesmoorenerd]

Chad Manchin would've taken Fat Pat's lunch money in high school.

You actually think that is a compliment?

I actually think what is a compliment? Young Joe Manchin was objectively hot as hell.

[wesmoorenerd]

I think Morrisey wins now 49-48.

But why though

[wesmoorenerd]

One thing I like about this battle in WV, meaning senate, house, and local offices all together, is that it is a great experiment and unity opportunity for the democratic party, and a prime time and place to bring the Zaybays and Bagels and all the dems inbetween and to the left and right together to give the Republicans a hell of a fight in the state.

Zaybays and Bagels together? Truly a hive of scum and villainy. I'm switching parties until further notice.

[wesmoorenerd]

This is definitely Manchin's last term and the Democratic Party's last time winning statewide in WV.

Until climate refugees from VA lead to a massive leftward shift, that is