Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[wesmoorenerd]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

I think that's a bit too generous to Abrams. It's a solidly Lean R race now. She does have momentum and I think she's very well within range to pull off a victory, but I don't think that would happen if the election were to be held today.

[wesmoorenerd]

Both GOP candidates are looking awful (Cagle with the scandals and Kemp with the faux right wing hillbilly shotgun nonsense) and Dems have a great standard bearer - and Cook STILL HAS THIS RACE AT SAFE R.

[wesmoorenerd]

Both GOP candidates are looking awful (Cagle with the scandals and Kemp with the faux right wing hillbilly shotgun nonsense) and Dems have a great standard bearer - and Cook STILL HAS THIS RACE AT SAFE R.

They may be waiting for the runoff before making any adjustment.

That's what they're doing, but that doesn't change anything. It's a Likely/Lean R race with either candidate.

[wesmoorenerd]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

Ew. It is so inauthentic. Cagle will go the way of Gillespie at this rate.

There are definitely parallels between Cagle and Gillespie. They're boring candidates who tried to spice up their campaign by infusing Trumpian tactics, not realizing that they're just harming their own odds in the process. Difference is, Gillespie is trying those tactics in a state that is massively anti-Trump. Cagle will fare better, but he's really not helping himself.

[wesmoorenerd]

Kemp is going to win at this rate. Recent polling is showing a tight race, even a statistical tie. Kemp has the momentum and has been doing better every poll. Higher propensity voters are leaning Kemp, which should already be enough to tilt the race in his favor. Even better for Kemp, Cagle's scandals keep growing and still aren't fully out yet, and Kemp is doing great among voters that have caught wind of Cagle's incompetence and corruption. To top it all off, Kemp is probably the better campaigner, throwing out pure red meat to the conservative base. Mark my words: Kemp is going to win the runoff and lose to Abrams.

[wesmoorenerd]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less more Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

[wesmoorenerd]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Nope.  Averaging the Cook PVI's for the state (source), the statewide lean is R+5.3, while GA-06 is R+8.

Haha, that was a mistake, I meant to say more Republican. Point being that the fundamentals in GA-06 were tougher than GA-GOV.

[wesmoorenerd]

Speaking of demographics, is this the last time GA will vote statewide as a majority white state? It could very well be majority minority by the time of the pres/senate elections in 2020.

GA isn’t expected to be majority minority until 2025 and even with that whites will still be overperforming their population share in the electorate so it will be majority white for a bit after that. But once the white electorate share gets down to <55% it won’t be enough to keep it from flipping D.

I've got to imagine the white population of GA isn't as solidly Republican as the white population of, say, Alabama. Within urban Atlanta and even the suburban counties around it I've got to imagine white voters aren't monolithic.

[wesmoorenerd]

There’s a run off debate happening rn.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/2-gop-candidates-for-governor-to-debate-on-channel-2/787533005

I can only assume it's a race to the bottom.

[wesmoorenerd]

I still see this as Lean R.

Lean R is still fair, that's what I have in my own ratings. It's undeniable that everything has been going Abrams' way so far, though.

[wesmoorenerd]

I just don't see her surviving the debt issue, candidates in tough states almost have to be flawless. It's something that will give a lot of voters pause no matter the explanation.

If somebody isn't voting for Abrams because of the debt issue, they were never going to vote for Abrams anyway.