Conservatopia
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,050
Political Matrix
E: 0.72, S: 8.60
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« on: May 03, 2024, 02:36:34 AM » |
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At some point today (BBC) and then on the weekend (Sunday Times) there will be modelling released calculating what these local elections would look like for a general election.
However these come with a heavy warning: the Lib Dem figure will be around 4-5 points higher and Labour about 3-4 points lower than what polls indicate.
This is normal and should not be taken, like it is on this forum every year, as the polls being off - the Lib Dems just perform better at the local level. There is an analogous local leakage from the Tories to Independents/RAs but that only accounts for about 1 point.
So basically when the PNS and NEV are released, subtract 4 points from LD and give them to Labour.
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