United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Conservatopia]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.



Harry, have you been selected for anywhere yet? You should definitely run again.

[Conservatopia]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.

Given your politics, presumably standing would help rather than hurt her?
Have Reform got anything to offer a prospective candidate such as yourself (pay for the deposit, activists to campaign etc)?

Yes but I currently use my relationship with the local MPs to get tickets into the gallery at PMQs - would I still be able to do that if I stood against her and she won? Then again do I want to watch PMQs if Starmer's PM and some weirdo like Jenrick's LOTO next year?

I don't want to sound like I'm bragging but money isn't an issue and I have more willing friends locally than Reform has activists. The only advantage Reform has is that they (allegedly) stole a list of (alleged) email and (alleged) physical addresses from the (alleged) local Tory party when somebody (allegedly) defected.

I think it's an interesting phenomenon that across the world it seems people will have a better chance by running with "Independent" after their name than if they run for a minor party or start their own party.

[Conservatopia]

Well, Wales has the popular backlash to 20mph, and Scotland has tactical unionist voting for the Tories in parts of the country where Labour is very weak.

A significantly online thing, and almost certainly overrated as a major factor in the next GE - look at how the opposition to ULEZ in the London area has abated now most realise they won't have to pay it.

It's definitely a real offline backlash and a rather different issue to ULEZ, but I doubt it will change many votes so you're right overall. It's unlikely a factor in the relative performance versus England.

Well, Wales has the popular backlash to 20mph, and Scotland has tactical unionist voting for the Tories in parts of the country where Labour is very weak.

Really? I thought that was in Sunderland.

[Conservatopia]

If only there were young Tory voters on this board that we could actually speak to in order to find out how and why they vote.

[Conservatopia]

If only there were young Tory voters on this board that we could actually speak to in order to find out how and why they vote.

Ones who talk about voting for Labour and standing for Reform?

In other words: trolls.

[Conservatopia]

I find it hard to believe there are any two Tory MPs who agree on who should be leader.

[Conservatopia]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

Sky news is going to be incredibly fun to watch when the election happens.

Why do you keep saying this over and over in the thread? Firstly it adds nothing and secondly you're misinformed.

Sky News UK isn't anything like the right-wing Sky News Australia. They're completely separate entities sharing little more than a name. Sky here is no more pro-Tory than BBC or ITV.

If you mean GB News, the actual right-wing broadcaster, then you might have a point. But I suspect even they will be saying that Sunak deserves the thrashing and that this will cause a right-wing comeback or something.

[Conservatopia]

30 point lead? Any other Labour leader would be 20 points ahead.

[Conservatopia]

I think Tory HQ and most of the MPs know that it will likely be a Labour landslide. The base is definitely aware.

The thing is if you're the Tories you CANNOT admit this openly. You have to pretend there's still a chance otherwise people will just not vote or vote Reform.

The idea of "lol deluded tories think they can win this" is funny but not true. Tories know they will lose - but admitting this would simply increase the scale of the defeat.

The aim seems to be to keep above 200 seats if possible (200 seats is itself a devastation) so that there is a base to build from over the next 5-10 years.

[Conservatopia]

Can we just agree that the graph above is a really weird and dumb way to illustrate this?

Almost as bad as the cartoonish "Swingometer" and "Path to Number 10" that the BBC shoves down our throats on elections nights.

[Conservatopia]

Talking of cringeworthy moments (from Sunak and whoever else), what's it going to be like once the Euros actually get going? There isn't much precedent for this. The 1970 World Cup was of course before the 24/7 news cycle, let alone social media. There's already been plenty of stupid photos and posts on Twitter etc from politicians during Euros and World Cups but they weren't during general election campaigns.

Cringeworthy photo ops of politicians in England's home kit with a beer in hand and a barbecue sizzling in the background cheering on. That is all. (I seem to recall Gordon Brown being advised not to do anything about England 2010 because it would seem inauthentic because he's Scottish)

More relevant is if Sunak turns up to support Southampton at Wembley or if like Cameron he gets his team wrong and support Olympiakos in Athens instead.

The England team will be called the "hope of the nation" before the tournament, "a light in dark times for our country" when the dominate their group stage and then "emblematic of a broken Britain" when they lose 4-0 in the quarter finals.