Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[Conservatopia]

Who could run?
Here is my estimation of people who could theoretically clear 100 nominations:

Could reach 100 without any pacts:
Rishi Sunak
Ben Wallace

Could only be nominated if they had a pact with someone else:
Penny Mordaunt
Boris Johnson
Sajid Javid

Probably not clearing 100:
Grant Shapps
Brandon Lewis

No chance:
Suella Braverman
Kemi Badenoch
Therese Coffey
Nadhim Zahawi

[Conservatopia]

If there are more than two non-Sunak candidates, does there become a realistic chance of them all splitting and ending up below 100?

If nobody reaches 100 the whole fabric of British politics resets and Alfred the Great becomes Prime Minister.

[Conservatopia]

If Sunak becomes leader, anyone think there is a possibility party can recover enough to win next election or is party too badly damaged at this point?

If the last few years have taught us something it's that anything is possible.

[Conservatopia]

I'd be interested to hear what Cassius has to say on this but I think I've reached the point where I don't care who wins the leadership of my party.

I won't support Boris, who I backed in the 2019 race, because he caused this mess in the first place and won't be able to staff a government.

I don't like Rishi, he's a posh boy and he won't appeal to the 2019 coalition at all.

I won't support Mordaunt because whilst she might be the best choice electorally, she's too far to my left.

I'd rather just headbang on my own in my little niche of the hard right thanks very much.

Also, I'm actually kind of getting tempted by the Reform Party emails inviting candidates to stand. It would be a waste of time though, they're going nowhere.

[Conservatopia]

Frost endorsing Sunak is a big deal, no doubt about it. It will give Sunak some much needed credibility on the right of the party. Whilst personally I find Frost a windbag, he is held in very high regard by many on the right. That being said many of his biggest fans probably aren't members of the party.

This has actually got me thinking: what's Farage saying these days? He was fairly supportive of Truss over the summer.

[Conservatopia]

Just think - there will now be three former PMs on Parliament's benches.

[Conservatopia]

I do believe that Sunak prime-ministership is a bad for Ukraine. I understand it is more likely than not that he will become PM today, but I just hope this goes to membership, and Conservative members elect Mordaunt

I agree with your sentiment - Sunak will probably be more like Macron in his support for Ukraine. However many decisions take place in cabinet and there's a decent chance that the Foreign and Defence Secretaries will be big Ukraine supporters.

Labour's frontbench is very pro Ukraine too so they will likely hammer Sunak for any weakness he shows on this issue.

My point is that I don't *think* that much will change in the way of British material support for Ukraine. We just might not take a leading role in the Western Alliance on this issue.

[Conservatopia]

I've kind of changed my opinon on Sunak, he's currently rich but he wasn't realy born into it. His family background is solidy upper-middle class, and I think that probably allows him to appele better to the electorate than someone born a plutocrat.

It's true that he wasn't born into obscene wealth. He has it now because he married into it. Somehow I doubt that that makes him seem like a man of the people.

No but you see every working class man wants to marry a billionaire heiress so actually Sunak is a aspirational working class hero salt of the earth man of people.